It's not about slamming. It's about math

[TexasBushwhacker]

The following states will be won by Republicans in the GE. I have noted the number of delegates won by Clinton and Sanders.

Alabama - Clinton 44, Sanders 9
Alaska - Clinton 3, Sanders 13
Arizona - Clinton 42, Sanders 33
Arkansas - Clinton 22, Sanders 10
Georgia - Clinton 73, Sanders 29
Idaho - Clinton 5, Sanders 18
Kansas - Clinton 10, Sanders 23
Louisiana - Clinton 37, Sanders 14
Mississippi - Clinton 32. Sanders 4
Nebraska - Clinton 10, Sanders 15
North Carolina - Clinton 59, Sanders 45
Oklahoma - Clinton 17 , Sanders 21
South Carolina - Clinton 39, Sanders 14
Tennessee - Clinton 44, Sanders 23
Texas - Clinton 147, Sanders 75
Wyoming - Clinton 7, Sanders 7

So, theoretically, one could deduct these delegates from their totals to get a bit more accurate reflection of how each has done where it counts - states that are solid blue or swing states. Clinton has 1632 pledged delegates, 591 of which are from states SHE WILL NOT WIN. Sanders has 1299 pledged delagates, 353 from solid blue states. In pledged delegates, Clinton currently has a 11.4% margin. But if you deduct the delegates from unwinnable states, her margin drops by more than half to 4.8%.

Add to that the swing states that had far more Republican voters for the primary than Democrats:

Florida (closed) - Clinton 141, Sanders 73
Ohio - Clinton 81, Sanders 62
Virginia - Clinton 62, Sanders 33

I don't know if the Republican/Democrat split translates to the GE, but if it does, we will not win Florida, Ohio or Virginia, and that will kill us.

Add to this that Sanders is polling better against Trump, Cruz and Kasich, and it's clear to me that the super delegates sypporting Clinton really need to rethink their position. Right now they are supporting Clinton by more than 10 to 1, when it really should be closer to 10 to 8.

[Cassiopeia]

1. I'm starting to see a lot of Trump stickers here in FL

still some Bernie stickers around and I have yet to see even one Hillary sticker or sign.

I don't see how she wins FL. I think Bernie would be able to get close if not squeak by, but I see FL as solidly in the Trump camp if Hillary is the nom.

[TexasBushwhacker]

2. Well, Florida was a closed peimary

I expected Bernie to do better there, but maybe a lot of independent voters got shut out. Also, even though Trump came out on top, Rubio was still in the mix. The anti-Trump votes for Rubio, Cruz and Kasich totaled more than Trump's. So the question is, in a Trump vs Clinton contest who will the anti-Trump Republicans vote for?

[Cassiopeia]

3. There was no push to get registrations changed before the primary.

Registered Indy's were completely locked out.

There should have been a solid effort in January here if Bernie were to have a chance.

[djean111]

4. Anyone I mention Bernie to, here in Florida, says, first thing - NOT Hillary.

First thing they say. If the nominee is Hillary, people won't show up, or they will vote for Trump.

[Cassiopeia]

6. Yes, that's what I'm hearing here in SWFL as well.

Anyone but Hillary, but many prefer Bernie.

I've had a number a garage sales over the last few months and most people that came saw all our Bernie stuff would make that comment... Anyone but Hillary.

If Hillary takes the Nom we should really start building for 2020 the day after the convention.

[MissDeeds]

7. I've heard that a lot too here in KS

from Democrats.

Our caucus was overwhelmingly Bernie supporters; Hillary's numbers were about one-fourth as many. I do not condone voting for Trump, and never would, but the simple fact is that many people, Democrats included, will not vote for her.

The next four years are looking .

[RobertEarl]

5. Good points

I doubt democrats will win this election in November unless Bernie is at the top of the ticket.

Reason is turnout will be down by about 15% from 2008, and Obama only won by something like 7%.

The party is fractured and the heads of the party really don't care much whether an R or a D are in office, The establishment will take care of THEM no matter who is POTUS,

The e-vote will decide who gets selected, and they all know it. As does anyone with any brains in the US.

To the convention!

[Jennylynn]

8. Here in Illinois too. ABH

Chicago will pull through for her though.

[Old Codger]

9. If she is

The nominee and trump is theirs trump will be president, way to many people hate her. A shitload of voters who would either stay home or vote for Bernie will vote just to vote against her..

[MissDeeds]

10. I think you're right

Hillary has a high unfavorable rating, and she hasn't brought in the youth vote and independents. That could be costly in November.

[TexasBushwhacker]

11. I agree about her unfavorables

But Trump has those too. She still beats him head to head in the polls, but Bernie beats Trump by a higher margin. He beats Cruz and Kasich by higher margins too and he tends to draw more voters to the polls.

He would likely pick up votes in Florida. Not only was it a closed primary, the Trump vote was eclipsed by the anti-Trump votes. I've got to think that some of the anti-Trump GOP would vote for him in the GE as well as the independents who couldn't vote at all.

[Old Codger]

12. But

I am still not convinced that they are going to allow trump to be the nominee, what the hell a little more cheating won;t bother them..

[TexasBushwhacker]

13. Well they probably need to stop the "winner take all"

set up they have in some states. That's given Trump more delegates than he really deserves. Yes, I realize he doesn't deserve any - LOL. But Trump got 99 delegates from the 4 States that were WTA and he only deserved to get less than 60. That's just for one day.

It's funny that the Koch's are disappointed in this years field of GOP candidates to the point that they wouldn't categorically rule out Clinton. I would say "You reap what you sew motherfucker."