Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumNew York is feeling the Bern, please keep making phone calls!
We have been leafleting, getting out the vote, phone-banking and rally-ing, There is a feeling of growing enthusiasm here!
Check out the video in this post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=post&forum=1251&pid=1757072 to see some real New York enthusiasm!
Leafletting on the street, we're getting big smiles from a very, very broad group of folks here!
Please, please, please, if you care about this campaign, now is the time to make calls, talk to friends, GOTV, knock on doors, give money, perform random acts of kindness, wear buttons, generally keep the momentum growing!
The polls are irrelevant: First of all, they have been way off repeatedly, probably because it is not the usual groups who are turning out. But, secondly, what matters here is not win or lose but by how much (because the 247 New York delegates are awarded proportionally, not 'winner-take-all'). So every vote really counts, we need as many as possible, regardless of the overall score!
(But, of course, as the song says, "If you can make it here, . . ."
The MSM plays a big game of discouraging one side or the other. But what really counts is not the spin they put on it, but who actually votes on Primary Day!
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)for working so hard in NY.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)we are all there in spirit with you.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)DLnyc
(2,479 posts)But I'm not sure the way you phrase it helps us get out the vote.
I guess maybe it's a small difference, but I would be more inclined to say "Bernie will end prisons for profits!"
I feel like that is more of a motivator for Bernie voters, and still allows room for a conversation with fence-sitters. Especially since Hillary seems currently to be saying she strongly opposes private prisons.
But I do agree that privately run prisons are an obscenity.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)--legislative district caucuses Sunday.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)Didn't mean to criticize anyone's particular actions, every action is important!
And I do think it's especially valuable for locals to cal fellow locals; it just resonates better sometimes to hear from a neighbor than from a distant stranger!
The Old Lie
(123 posts)I want to hear the news.
thanks for all you do!
eridani
(51,907 posts)We elected 27 Sanders and 11 Clinton delegates to go the the Congressional District 07 caucus.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)Please kick if you agree!
Duckfan
(1,268 posts)TeeYiYi
(8,028 posts)...for being in the trenches on the front line.
I'll be living my life vicariously through you for the next few days!...
TYY
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)My sense is, it is the beginning of the end.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)As I said in the OP, New York, like I think all Democratic primaries, awards pledged delegates proportionately.
Thus, if Sanders wins New York by a fraction of a percentage point, say, then he will probably get something like 124 of New York's 247 pledged delegates, with Hillary getting the other 123. That would not be terrible for Bernie, since Hillary's (currently 210 delegates, by Green Papers' count) lead would go down by one. But since he would now need to make up that deficit out of a smaller pool of remaining pledged delegates (1400 as opposed to 1647 before New York votes), his job will actually look a bit tougher after the primary than it looks before.
But if we can pull off a good win, say 60% to 40%, then Bernie would pick up something like 148 delegates to Hillary's 99, knocking her lead down to something like 111 delegates, which would nicely improve his chances of getting a majority of the pledged delegates by the time the next 19 remaining states vote!
My gut feeling is we will come in somewhere between these two scenarios, but, obviously, the more votes we get the better!!!!
Of course, in the mad spin-game being played out on the TV, they will make a big deal about who 'wins' New York State. And certainly, psychologically, it will look really bad for Hillary to 'lose' her "home" state (she actually has three states she calls "home" , and no doubt many people will pressure her to drop out at that point.
But, as far as the delegate count, I would say it's much more important to look at who wins by how much, than simply who wins.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)If Hillary wins NY by any significant degree, say more than 3 points, it will be really bad for Bernie, and there will be a huge loss of momentum.
If Sanders wins NY big, the momentum will have completely swung to him and it is a big loss of face for HRC.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)Could be an interesting evening tomorrow, we'll see.
There is a very passionate younger voter contingent, and they are hard to count by traditional polling methods.
The key, I think, is making sure they all actually vote!
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)I hope they overcome all the NY state voting restrictions.