Bernie Sanders needs 932 pledged delegates to get a majority, Hillary Clinton needs 716

[DLnyc]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

BS: 1094 so far
HC: 1310 so far

4051 pledged delegates available, so 2026 needed to get a majority.

2026 - 1094 = 932
2026 - 1310 = 716

Un-pledged delegates still available: 1647

Most people here probably know this is the actual score, but since funny numbers keep cropping up, I thought I would highlight this.

Also generally understood, I think, is that in a similar situation, in 2008, un-pledged delegates moved over from Clinton to Obama, once they saw that Obama was getting a majority of the pledged delegates. So it is not, frankly, reality-based to keep pretending that the un-pledged delegates are anything else but, literally, un-pledged. That is, they can change. Not fixed. Unreliable. Not definite. Not countable yet by reasonable people.

Also, spin does not create more delegates. It just makes people dizzy.

[CoffeeCat]

1. The problem with the super delegates

is that they can "vote" for whatever candidate, whenever they like. They are not restricted. They can publicly declare their support for Bernie or Hillary, and then they are formally "counted" as being in their favored-candidates camp.

It would be nice if these people waited until the end.

How many uncommitted super delegates are remaining? I will look this up. Would be interesting to know that.

And thanks for your numbers. I appreciate you putting together the "story."

Anything could happen. There are some nice upward trends for Bernie, for sure. He was behind 30 in NY, now the latest polls have him down by only 10. He was behind by 40 in PA and now it's a 6-point race. Same in CA. It's now a 6-point race there, with Bernie following close behind. Bernie is up 60 in CA since Feb 2105.

He's also ahead in the two latest national polls. There are some good indicators that things are trending our way.

Edited to add: According to Wikipedia, 199 Super delegates are still Uncommitted (Interesting, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden remain uncommitted). This number hasn't changed much. According to a November 2015 article, there were 210 Uncommitted super delegates.

[DLnyc]

2. Yes, polls are improving, and he has significantly out-performed polls a number of times now.

And as far as the super (un-pledged) delegates, they can say who they intend to vote for, but then later they can change their minds (and that is exactly what happened in 2008).

[CoffeeCat]

3. Yes, and I just discovered that 199 super delegates remain uncommitted

So, that is very interesting.

I didn't know that Nancy Pelosi hadn't committed either. She endorsed Obama in 08.

We have a long way to go. Should be interesting.

I have a good feeling about New York. Bernie is really hitting it hard there.

[DLnyc]

6. Yes, I'm getting a good feeling too.

Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 09:59 AM - Edit history (1)

Bernie at the Apollo tonight was amazing. Win or lose, he is definitely going all out. And so are his supporters here!

[draa]

4. I wanted to thank you for all your work in Iowa this election season.

I didn't get the chance to tell you that night but I followed your reporting on that state and really nothing else. You were my eyes and ears (and I suspect a great many more followed you as well). Anyway, thank you again.

As far as the SD's? I believe with the race as tight as it is many of them will hold their vote until the race becomes a little clearer. Right now it looks like neither candidate will reach majority of delegates. And considering all the negative talk about SD's this election, and how they will override the will of the voters, I suspect many will wait as long as possible to publically commit.

I also understand that Clinton has around 500 pledged SD's but quite frankly I don't put much stock in that considering how close this election is right now. I imagine most SD's that support her thought this thing would be over quickly. Especially since the Democrats really didn't offer much competition to Clinton to begin with. I'm also not sure how many knew of a possible Clinton indictment. All that considered, and Bernie's continued climb up the charts, the SD's have to be sweating making an early call.

[CoffeeCat]

5. Thank you for your kind comments

That's nice to know that my DU posts about Iowa were helpful. I didn't really think those posts were any big deal. But now that I am not in a state where the candidates are campaigning--I understand now that those first-hand accounts really are helpful.

Again, thank you for your kind words!

I agree that it's possible that neither candidate may get to the magic number to clinch the nomination. It will be an interesting primary, as it continues, for sure. I never thought I'd see a primary that was longer than 2008, but it looks like we will surpass what happened during that time.

For the love of God....where's my Pepto Bismol?

[draa]

10. You know, I've been surprisingly calm this election.

It's not that I haven't been mad a few times but otherwise I haven't worried about much.

Here's the thing. I trust Bernie and fully believe he knows what he's doing when it comes to getting elected. I've always thought that if I just let the man work I'll be fine. He's likely the best I've ever seen at campaigning so that's something I've never worried about.

It's important to remember we're on the right side of history in this election. We are fighting for people who have been screwed and have no voice. That alone gives me comfort in this process. Either way, we'll win this battle eventually if for no other reason than the weight of history is on our side.

[TexasBushwhacker]

7. They have DWS as uncommitted to - LOL n/t

[CoffeeCat]

9. As head of the DNC, she is forced to publicly remain impartial

I've heard DWS say this many times. That's pretty funny, isn't it?

[DemocracyDirect]

8. THIS

This is the number we need to focus on.

The Super Delegates mean nothing if we achieve this number.

The number of people waiting in the streets of Philadelphia will mean a lot more than the Super Delegates if we reach this number.

[Left Coast2020]

11. I would think if Bernie wins NY, he's breathing down the back of her neck

200+ delegates for winning NY? It would be damn near even from the looks of these numbers.

[DLnyc]

13. I'm pretty sure NY, like other states for Dems, is proportional

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-D

I suppose many here know this, but there seems to be a lot of misinformation floating around, and since the idea of this thread is accurate info, please forgive me if I am stating things that are already known.

If you scroll down in the above link, you see a table (not filled in yet) that seems to be how the delegates are allocated.

As I read it, some are proportional by Congressional District, some are proportional by the whole state. Apparently 163 delegates will be awarded proportionally by CD. For example, CD 2 has 7 delegates, so if Bernie gets 70% of the vote in CD 2 (regardless of his statewide vote proportion) he will get 70% X 7 = 4.9 delegates or, rounding to nearest number, 5 and Hillary will get the other 2 in CD 2.

Then it seems that the remaining 84 (30 "party leaders and elected officials" and 54 "at large&quot will be allocated according to the percent of the statewide vote that each candidate gets.

As far as I've seen, all the Democratic primaries are run like this, with slight variations. Only the Republican primaries seem to have a few (not sure how many) winner-take-all states and/or winner-take-all districts.

So if Bernie gets 60% of the vote in New York, say, he could get something like 60% X 247 or 148 to Hillary's 99, knocking her lead down by 49. I say "something like" because the exact number depends a bit on which CD's he wins by how much.

Note that on the evening of April 19th, the New York Times and other sources, if the past is any guide, will NOT necessarily report these full results, but rather some incomplete set, possibly just the 84 statewide delegates, I'm not sure.

[cui bono]

12. Yeah, I noticed Hillary fans are using superdels in their numbers now.

Clearly they are trying to keep their meme that Bernie can't win going.

.