SUPER TUESDAY 2: PRELIMINARY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS

[bernbabe]

?w=676

https://tylerpedigo.com/category/politics-2/

This is the guy that got Michigan right.

It's tight!

[revbones]

1. Tight numbers

Hope Bernie can swing a couple extra points here and there.

Also, you might want to trim the "?blogsub=confirming#blog_subscription-3" from that link - it is for the confirmation of your subscription. I had considered subscribing but since it was confirming yours it only had the confirmation dialog rather than the form to allow me to subscribe.

[bernbabe]

2. Done, thanks

[Lorien]

3. Florida and Ohio are surging for Sanders currently

and he may gain even more ground by Tuesday. Bernie's forces are fully mobilized here in Florida!

[revbones]

4. I've got a bottle of Woodford Reserve waiting!!!

So he'd better knock it out of the park.

[Duckfan]

5. I got worried there for a moment

I thought this came from guy called Kate? No. Ate? no. Late?

Hmmmmm. 99%. Yeah. That's his name.

[Peace Patriot]

6. GO, BERNIE! Thanks, Bernbabe! And I have some questions...

Do you know what kind of election systems these are?

Primary?
If primary, closed primary? (only Dems can vote for Bernie)
If primary, open primary? (any reg'ed voter can vote for Bernie, regardless of affiliation or Indy)
If primary, limited open primary? (only Dems and undeclareds can vote for Bernie, as in CA)

All or nothing, as to delegates? Or proportional?
(Seems like I heard somewhere all Dem primaries/caucuses are proportional--true?)

Caucus?

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Looks good in Missouri, and quite hopeful in Ohio and Illinois! Very close--so that enthusiasm and Bernie supporters' typical good ground game and campaign organization could easily tip the balance as to a win of these states, and start edging into Goldman Sachs' delegate count. And Florida, though daunting, has the the same factors--enthusiasm, organization--that could make a good showing, if not a win. I won't count any state out.

With Missouri, Ohio and Illinois this would set Bernie up well for the next, much friendlier round. And if he just does better in the others than these predictions, that will be great. We don't have much reason to trust polls, even this one, and I think that reasons for voting for Goldman Sachs are so thin that they tend to crumble when people get Bernie information and realize that there IS a good alternative!

[LiberalArkie]

7. Bernie could probably do it in Illinois, but there is the old Daley machine to fight.

And that makes it vey hard I think.

[HereSince1628]

8. MO is a welcome surprise.

We've been surprised by less close predictions, so I'm glad to see predictions of 3 close races.

[Gwhittey]

9. The why polls work is flawed

For many reasons.
1. Most are using same old Land Line calling lists.
2. The poll people like Clinton camp don't know there is the internet.
3. The polls are random calls from a list of voters that voted in the last DNC primary. 2008
Tell me how many college ages people voted in last 2008. That is why polls are throwing numbers so off except in the South
Which as we have seen African American vote is major block that HRC used with media lies to get the vote for her.

So point #3 is biggest factor IMO because the young crowd now is a higher population that boomers since the end of WW2. And most of polls forget that fact and leave them out. That is why Sanders camp is using alternate means to access this young mainly first time voters. Like using HS class ring buyers as a calling list.