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flamingdem

(39,320 posts)
Sat Mar 12, 2016, 01:50 AM Mar 2016

An opinion on how Bernie can win - Vox

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/10/11189908/bernie-sanders-can-win

Here’s what has to happen for Bernie Sanders to win

Yes, Bernie Sanders could still win the Democratic nomination.

Make no mistake, Hillary Clinton is clearly winning now. She has 768 pledged delegates compared with Sanders's 553, according to Vox's delegate tracker. She's locked up most of the "superdelegates." And there are no big winner-take-all states in the Democratic primary to buoy Sanders at the 11th hour. If current trends continue, Clinton will win with room to spare.

But though a Sanders comeback looks unlikely, Sanders's whole candidacy has been unlikely. Indeed, just this Tuesday, the Vermont senator shocked the punditry yet again with an upset victory in Michigan, a state where polls showed him down by more than 20 points.

Now, if Sanders hopes to catch up to Clinton, he'll need not just several more upsets like Michigan, but several more upsets bigger than Michigan. It's a tall order — he'll likely need to beat Clinton in most of the biggest states remaining, win landslides in heavily white states, and improve his performance among black and Hispanic voters substantially. But it's not impossible to imagine.

So here's my best attempt at gaming out how a path to victory for Sanders would actually look, as per the delegate math. There won't be any sugarcoating here — this scenario would require the race to shift in Sanders's favor. But elections can take surprising turns. If the following five things happen, Sanders could actually pull this off.
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An opinion on how Bernie can win - Vox (Original Post) flamingdem Mar 2016 OP
It's a great article. CaliforniaPeggy Mar 2016 #1
That was my takeaway, a ton of work flamingdem Mar 2016 #2

flamingdem

(39,320 posts)
2. That was my takeaway, a ton of work
Sat Mar 12, 2016, 02:21 AM
Mar 2016

in a short time, yikes! The great thing is that Bernie seems to gain strength daily, so I'm not worried about him. Just worried that enough people will understand, soon enough, that he's the best choice now. I already know several regretters, they voted Hillary before really listening to what's being said.

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