Clinton Will Build Her Biggest Lead on March 15. Sanders Will Erode It After That

[magical thyme]

It's really important to set appropriate expectations. However much the media has been trying to tell us it's already over for Bernie, it will get worse around March 15. That is when Clinton peaks. Their voices will get louder and more insistent, and the situation in that moment will appear to support their message.

They are going to try to browbeat us into submission like never before. If people set expectations too high now, they will make us vulnerable to the lie that it's all over. So please, please, please understand this and be prepared for it.

Remember this: March 15 is the 2nd "Super Tuesday" and the 2nd "firewall" for the establishment. Bernie's strength comes after.

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

What this means is simple:

Hillary Clinton will grow her lead until the March 15 states have voted.

Bernie Sanders will erase that lead — partly or completely — after March 15.

How much of Clinton's lead he will erase depends on your not buying what the media is selling — that the contest is over.

In most scenarios where Sanders wins, he doesn't retake the lead until June 7, when five states including California cast their ballots.

- See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#sthash.mQdRzqHP.V892XU9R.dpuf

[Trajan]

1. Beware the Ides of March ...

I am looking forward to that ...

Thanks for the post ...

[erlewyne]

11. I am voting for BERNIE SANDERS on the Ides of March !!!

I just walked past the polling station down the tracks.

It is going to be a fun vote.

[Nyan]

2. Oh yeah. If you look at the primary schedule, it certainly looks that way. nt

[Uben]

3. California is a big prize!

How is Bernie doing there in the polls?

[Helen Borg]

9. Every day that passes and N more people hear of Bernie for the first time...

N more people support Bernie. People know Clinton's name, they are sick of the usual blah blah. So, by June, Bernie should have enough support in CA to win it.

[onecaliberal]

28. 700 delegates here

[greymouse]

4. I'm with Bernie.

I would never vote for Hillary under any circumstances.

[ejbr]

18. I can see one

Remember Diebold? But other than that, I believe you

[Autumn Colors]

5. Probably why DKos chose that date

Last edited Sat Mar 5, 2016, 10:49 AM - Edit history (1)

to clamp down on any non-Hillary posting. After that, they won't be able to justify it.

[Flying Squirrel]

24. Ding ding ding!

[dubyadiprecession]

6. If bernie hasn't led by now, he never will.

[retrowire]

12. are you aware you just posted

blatant pessimism and discouragement in the Bernie group?

[Autumn Colors]

20. That's like saying

If Hillary hasn't lost by now, she never will

How did that work out in 2008?

[PatrickforO]

26. Based on what?

Bernie can still win, and we're all gonna support him to and through the convention.

[in_cog_ni_to]

27. Go away...shoo! nt

[Enthusiast]

7. K&R! This post should have hundreds of recommendations!

[ConsiderThis_2016]

8. The kitchen sink will not be enough and will not work...

We may have to carry some demoralized Bernie supporters over the broken glass... that's just part of what is required during a political revolution. Stay active, stay strong and stay loud till the convention. $5, $10, $25... $27

[HereSince1628]

10. True. It's a beating until March 15; and then it's just all uphill.

[magical thyme]

23. it's not all up hill until after June 7. But the hills become a lot less steep.

Some states after that are still conservative. But the big waves of mostly conservative states are over, and most states after the 15th are liberal.

[Fast Walker 52]

13. remember there is a college with a perfect track record on picking presidential elections

who predicted Bernie would win, several months back. I can see it.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100-accuracy-record-predicts-bernie-sanders-will-americas-next-president/

Although clearly their state by state exact scenario is not quite accurate, nor is their GOP ticket: Bush/Rubio.

[book_worm]

14. You will have a pretty good two weeks there from March 22-April 9

With a lot of caucuses in smaller western states like Idaho, Utah, Hawaii, & Wyoming, but AZ is a closed primary and HRC might have a good shot there with a strong turnout among democrats and Latino voters. Washington is another caucus state where Bernie might do well. Wisconsin will be competitive.

However on April 19 New York will vote and it has 247 delegates and it is a closed primary and HRC is likely to do well and overwhelm Bernie with any advantage he might have gotten out of any wins in these smaller states in the west.

Then on April 26 there are closed primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Delaware, Pennsylvania (another big delegate Industrial State) and Maryland should go pretty handily to HRC. It will be close in CT and possibly RI--but lower New England (as Massachusetts proved) is not as Bernie friendly as upper New England.

So yes, I agree Bernie might have a couple of weeks after March 15 (where HRC will effectively clinch the nomination anyway) in some smaller states (mostly caucus) but after that HRC will have a couple of weeks of big delegate states more friendly to her.

[Fast Walker 52]

15. unless the momentum shifts quite a bit against her, which is what this model predicts.

check out the links. Another wild-card is the FBI investigation.

[magical thyme]

21. and your favorite group is Hillary Clinton

Are you aware you are posting in the Bernie Sanders group?

The analysis at the OP link makes it clear that Bernie erodes the lead after March 15, and has numerous paths to taking the lead on JUNE 7.

[PWPippin]

16. I love this post and wish all Sanders supporters would read it and take it in.

Waverers need to be given a bit of a backbone. I fear they may be too easily persuaded to vote for our opponent because "Bernie can't make it." Of course, he can't if we don't vote for him! Aargh!

[Fast Walker 52]

17. It is such a bizarre year for the presidential election, I can't see how anyone can say with

confidence that Hillary will win, even though yes, that is more likely. I'd say her odds are 60% favorable.

[PatrynXX]

19. kinda became clear after the GOP tried to rid itself of Trump which I guess the people want

what happens when the party tries to select for itself a candidate , we could end up with someone nobody wants (trump) the Rank and File have no idea how fast they'll be thrown under the bus.

[greymouse]

25. If

Trump is the Repub nominee, the only way to beat him is with Bernie. If somehow the Repubs manage to pick someone else, which I can only see happening with some against the popular vote at their convention, probably any Democratic nominee would beat whoever that is, unless there's a Repub writein campaign for Trump then no idea what happens.

[TBF]

22. GOTV for Bernie -

these numbers are not set in stone. People have not voted yet. No reason why we can't increase turn out.

[kath]

29. Kickety-kick. Important article. ignore the media SPIN.

[noiretextatique]

30. Bernie should have been toast already

The motives of the punditocracy are very cleat.

[corbettkroehler]

31. Pendulum Has Begun Its New Direction

Yes, Mrs. Clinton took Louisiana in a blow-out but Bernie did as well in one of his victories. He will have excellent momentum for CNN tonight and Faux News tomorrow. Your prediction may be correct but, by 3/7, we will see the future.

[magical thyme]

32. Kicking as a reminder! nt

[magical thyme]

33. and another reminder. nt

[Live and Learn]

34. Kicking. nt

[farleftlib]

35. Bra-vo

Bernie is not giving up and neither am I!!

This is her high-water mark so I hope she enjoys it while it lasts. Bernie for prez!

K & R