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The demographics of political revolution
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-liberal-millennial-revolution/470826/Most of the article discusses about how millennials seem to understand what's going on. But too many of them are stopping short of showing up at the voting booth to make it happen.
Something that got my attention is this:
The Bernie Sanders coalition is not just young. It is also rather white. This raises another question: Why would young, college-attending or college-educated white people—historically among the winners of the American system—be so eager to replace it?
Indeed, several older commentators have expressed horror that young people would embrace a revolution to make the U.S. more like a northern European economy. David Brooks’ exasperation is representative. “It’s amazing that a large part of the millennial generation has rejected” the American consensus that free markets are the way “toward individualism, achievement and flexibility,” he wrote.
The idea that young white Americans should be less revolutionary because their demographic has historically thrived misses two factors. First, it fails to reckon with the last decade—the rise in student loans, the rise in youth unemployment, the fall in wage growth, and social unrest. Second, it doesn’t acknowledge that a long period of economic progress followed by a concentrated period of financial strain is precisely what creates the perfect conditions for upheaval.
James Chowning Davies, a 20th-century American sociologist, observed that if you look at the history of political revolutions, it’s not the poorest who start them, nor is it the richest. Instead, the conditions for revolution are ripest “when a prolonged period of economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal.” Indeed, if you look at the French Revolution or the Russian Revolution, those whose felt the promise of hope felt the deepest indignation. Davies called it “the revolution of rising expectations."
Indeed, several older commentators have expressed horror that young people would embrace a revolution to make the U.S. more like a northern European economy. David Brooks’ exasperation is representative. “It’s amazing that a large part of the millennial generation has rejected” the American consensus that free markets are the way “toward individualism, achievement and flexibility,” he wrote.
The idea that young white Americans should be less revolutionary because their demographic has historically thrived misses two factors. First, it fails to reckon with the last decade—the rise in student loans, the rise in youth unemployment, the fall in wage growth, and social unrest. Second, it doesn’t acknowledge that a long period of economic progress followed by a concentrated period of financial strain is precisely what creates the perfect conditions for upheaval.
James Chowning Davies, a 20th-century American sociologist, observed that if you look at the history of political revolutions, it’s not the poorest who start them, nor is it the richest. Instead, the conditions for revolution are ripest “when a prolonged period of economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal.” Indeed, if you look at the French Revolution or the Russian Revolution, those whose felt the promise of hope felt the deepest indignation. Davies called it “the revolution of rising expectations."
Various economic demographics behave differently due to different psychologies. So those who stand the most to gain from big changes generally aren't the most likely to be the first ones pushing for it.
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