Nate Silver is right. The WI straw poll doesn't predict beans.

[Jackpine Radical]

It is meaningless in the sort of statistical models he uses for electoral predictions.

All it actually shows is a groundswell of enthusiasm for Bernie among activists. And Nate's models have no way of evaluating the consequences of that groundswell. For one thing, there hasn't been one like it in the era of modern polling, which goes back to WWII.

The point is that we are in virgin territory here. The old models may just not work because they are based on data gathered during a period of "business as usual." We are now entering a very different kind of era, on the verge of a re-ordering of our social dynamics.

[Trajan]

1. The WI straw poll did something of value ...

It inspired ...

[Jackpine Radical]

3. Well, except in certain groups

who were busy whistling.

[Jumpin Jack Flash]

2. Indeed, by the time the primaries are underway

Nate's model will be out of date by about 10 generations, and would be routinely criticized for not thinking outside of the box, yessir.

[pa28]

4. He is right in the sense it is nothing like a real poll.

What it does tell you that Bernie has the interest of a group of very well informed and active Democrats. If he's suggesting it's completely meaningless I'm afraid he's wrong. When we see more results like these in the coming weeks and months it's foreshadowing how paper-thin Hillary's support in caucus states will be as well as the strength of Bernie's message.

It's a long run and we just need to be patient.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. Right--The data are meaningless to Silver, who uses a variant of Bayesian statistics.

All Bayesian models rely heavily on past experience. It is the most accurate system in normal circumstances, producing better predictions in repeated situations than conventional "frequentist" statistics.

[sabrina 1]

14. I would be more impressed with his predictions about this, if he had predicted the results of THIS

poll. I think using his methods, he would have gotten it wrong.

[Jackpine Radical]

16. Yes, and he has no way to evaluate the significance of this poll.

This is especially true if it's measuring a new phenomenon. If you don't know what it is, how can you evaluate what it means?

[rhett o rick]

6. The Democratic Leadership has run rough-shod over progressives for over a decade and

the chickens will come home to roost. I don't know what that means but Democrat grassroots are getting sick of the bait and switch that Obama played. "I am a progressive, elect me. Bingo-Bango, Ha ha fooled you lousy progressives, I am going to continue GWB's programs. Bushy was afraid to kill with drones. Eat your heart out GWB"

The Democratic Leadership represents the billionaires and the grass-rooters are starting to figure it out. If they had their way, there would be no debates. HRC, the billionaires choice and the Democratic Leadership's choice should just get to be anointed.

[swilton]

7. Thanks for the discussion on the significance of the polls...

I was hoping to get from this Group - discussions to help me better appreciate the significance of polling data. In my years in political science, I have never really studied American politics where polling as well as statistical analysis are covered in depth.

Reviewing the news = I put 2 and 2 together and came up with, it's too early to tell anything. But I do think that there is some energy out there. Also, even given that Bernie's presentations have been on comfortable turf, the turn-out has to be pretty positive. The other thing that I've gleaned is at least at this point he isn't 'officially' considered as a threat...If he shows some consistency and his numbers go up in a meaningful way, then the personal attacks will begin.

[Jackpine Radical]

8. I think the national media have Bernie on The Big Ignore.

When it gets to the point where they can't ignore you…well you know how that goes.

[daleanime]

9. K&R.....

[Recursion]

10. Citation needed

For one thing, there hasn't been one like it in the era of modern polling, which goes back to WWII.

Umm...

[sabrina 1]

15. I can't think of one, the closest in my memory would be 2008, with Obama. But this is different in

sense that Bernie eg, is not taking Corporate money, yet his message is reaching the people. That alone makes it very different. He so far is proving that if you have the right message, you CAN get support without without those tainted donations now bigger than ever thanks to the abomination of the SC Decision CU.

[marym625]

11. Bernie 2016!

Doing the Bernie bounce!

K&R Mr Radical!

[SoapBox]

12. Didn't Silver sell his soul, to some MSM company?

...he just seemed to lose cred after that.

[AtomicKitten]

13. It shows momentum and Bernie's got it.