21% LEAD with 41% of votes counted!

[Old Crow]

Wow. I'm editing away my own words because I don't want to gloat.

But there's no arguing the point: This is a BIG win for Bernie and a serious indication that HRC's campaign is in trouble. The momentum Bernie's going to be receiving coming out of all this is huge.

[peacebird]

1. His percentage keeps growing, at 8:05 it was 12%!

Can't wait to see what it is at the end!

[Old Crow]

2. Yeah, it's looking great.

I'm wondering if this is similar to Iowa, where the more rural and conservative votes came in first and the more liberal votes, from the more populated areas, came in later?

That would explain the trend and suggest he may not only hold on to a 21% lead but even expand it. I hope!

[mhatrw]

3. Only 21%? That's a clear Clinton victory! nt

[Duckhunter935]

5. she is smoking him

Yuuuuuuuge victory

[Tien1985]

4. That is awesome! n/t

[Peace Patriot]

6. I keep going to a site I don't know at all but that has a nice map...

...of NH's precincts (color-coded for the candidates) and it keeps saying Bernie is beating Clinton by bigger margins than the Corporate Media is reporting. Right now:

With 48.7% of the votes counted:

Sanders 60.5%
Clinton 38.3%

A 22% win, with half the votes counted!

Anybody know this site? I'm going to see if I can find out who/what they are.

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

Could be CBS et al have done sophisticated or skewered sampling, and are basing their smaller Bernie win on better--or is it biased?--methods? The decisiondeskhq site seems to be reporting stats directly from NH's official site, not on sampling methods (better or skewered). Are Corporate's sampling methods more accurate, or have they deliberately downplayed the size of Bernie's win for headline purposes?

[Peace Patriot]

7. Roamed around the Decision Desk site a bit...

It costs money and you have to sign up. Was this cute map thing a freebe "door buster"? You can get a few issues of their Newsletter free, then you have to pay.

This gives us some names to look up:

Decision Desk Daily Newsletter

On election nights the Decision Desk is the place you turn for results. Now the team that you turn to for race calls Fast, First and Accurate is bringing campaign news to your inbox every morning with the Decision Desk Daily.

Dedicated to covering the news beyond the headlines, on both the Democratic and Republican races, Decision Desk Daily is a compilation of news, data analysis, polling results and campaign strategy. We’ll focus heavily on state and local reports, to give you an on the ground sense of the individual primary and caucus campaigns, where the battles are really fought.

Decision Desk Daily also features original content from the Decision Desk Daily team. Brandon Finnigan on polling, voter demographics and how they in turn guide the decisions of campaigns and influence election outcomes. John Ekdahl covers the intersection of technology and campaigns and Drew McCoy focuses on the wider political landscape and events driving campaigns.

In addition to these weekly features subscribers also have exclusive access to:

Podcasts

State of The Race: Covering the biggest stories and events that are shaping the race
Decision Desk Daily Datacast, Brandon is joined by pollsters, data analysis experts and others to take listeners deep inside the numbers and methodologies behind the news.
Special edition podcasts featuring expert guests on the issues driving voter choices and where candidates stand.

Premium website content

“State Pages” provide the information you need to know about each contest, from polling hours to number of delegates up for grabs and how they are awarded.

Exclusive insider looks at how the Decision Desk Team prepares for calling each race.
In “Pathways” we analyze how the leading candidates can get from Iowa to their party’s nomination.
Decision Desk Daily is a must have for everyone from the casual observer to the political junkie who is looking to have the most “beyond the headlines” information delivered to them to start the day.

http://daily.decisiondeskhq.com/

[Peace Patriot]

9. Got some hits! Interesting!

A Right-Wing Truck Dispatcher Is America’s Fairest New Election Night Vote Counter

The networks and one news wire used to control how and when Americans learned who won on election night — not anymore these days. “I want to fundamentally change how results are reported.”

Ben Smith
BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief

Sept. 2014

(If you can get past the misogyny of the truck driver/election analyst in the first part, here's what it is: )

Until about 2011, the way Americans received their information — who won, who lost — was dominated by the television networks. Their theatrical presentation and deliberate mystification turned their “analysts” — smart, numerate political hands with years of election experience — into a kind of political priesthood whose calls, particularly in the disputed 2000 election, were alleged to have shaped the outcome of a close race. Virtually all other contests were “called” by only one entity: the AP. The news wire neither rushes nor explains its decisions, which have been turned into a different kind of mysterious black box in part because it is bound contractually to share its results first with the news organizations who pay for those decisions. The AP essentially controlled when Americans learned who won an election.

But something significant has changed in the last few years: The geeky new obsession with political data. It really started with liberal bloggers who took polling seriously, and with the nerd king Nate Silver, who made his name reassuring Democrats that Barack Obama was, still, winning.

The conversation has moved from polling to the polls. The people counting the actual votes — county officials across the United States — have started putting precinct-by-precinct tallies online. Now that same data that only the AP could access, anyone can access.

(SNIP)

Now Finnigan and his ragtag Decision Desk have taken that transformation a step further. His volunteers, unlike the rest of amateur and professional media alike, don’t just rely on published figures and AP tallies. They’ve also begun to replicate the AP’s vast information-gathering network at the clerks’ offices that don’t report data swiftly online, organizing a cadre of what’s now 130 volunteers to collect results directly from local officials. It’s the next logical step for the small fraternity of election-night analysts, doing in public what the large media institutions have typically done in the dark.

(SNIP)

(They) have become central to a political conversation that has been for years now shaped on Twitter. Their slick website, built by a volunteer developer and blogger named John Ekdahl to aggregate both polling and election results, relaunched this week.

(MORE) (emphasis added)

http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/a-right-wing-truck-dispatcher-is-americas-fairest-new-electi#.bv1Y5Jb2B

[Old Crow]

8. Very interesting.

I've been checking the numbers and the math on your website and CNN, and it seems the variances are due to the numbers trickling in and the formula being applied when all the numbers have not yet been updated.

The math is simple: Candidate Votes/Total Votes = Candidate's Percentage.

What I've seen is that sometimes the candidate's votes will be incremented up--which automatically changes the percentage--before the total votes are incremented. Once the total votes are incremented, the candidate's percentage then adjusts to the actual accurate number.

(I'm a programmer by profession, if you haven't already guessed.)

[Paulie]

10. 61.0% to 37.9% (65.2 reporting)

30% was mythical but 25% attainable?

[Old Crow]

11. 22% lead is the latest I'm finding.

60% to 38% with 80% of votes counted. This is stunning, really, and better than I was hoping for.

[Stardust]

12. Anybody know what Nate Silver was predicting for NH?

[Old Crow]

13. Predicted a Sanders win, 54.9% to Clinton's 40.5%

Not bad, but Bernie won even more strongly.

[Stardust]

14. Thank you. Someone speculated on DU that Bernie's win may have set a record. Is that true?