Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumLiberalElite
(14,691 posts)nervous but I would be nervous anyway.
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,627 posts)I'm trying not to be, though. I keep thinking about all the volunteers out there working the phones etc and I hope that all these splendid efforts will be enough.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)Let's see what happens in Iowa and NH. I see so many people coming out for Bernie instead of Hillary in real life.
I might have been more worried if Bernie were leading in the polls. I would have worried that some of the younger supporters would stay home thinking it was in the bag. Maybe this will push them to get out there.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)It'll be close. But, I'll admit, I think Bernie needs the win for the momentum. Big picture? It's probably a few delegates either way. But it's the headlines. It's about showing the skeptics he can win. But I am cautiously optimistic he will win.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)they will do their best to spin whatever happens against us. Let hope they have a tough job Monday night.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)But I know there are people who are saying they like Sanders but aren't sure he can win. Winning the first two would help with that a lot I think.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)could not do even ONE without making it really about Hillary.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)real PEOPLE. Not just political insiders and pundits.
Bernie's in a great spot. Just remember tht Hillary was up 30 points just 3 months ago. THIRTY FUCKING POINTS.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Our brains think, and I have to be careful when thinking far ahead. I almost feel optimistic.
Mike__M
(1,052 posts)Folks have been awakened to the possibilities.
2pooped2pop
(5,420 posts)Hillary has much more to lose. We all know if she loses it's baaaaad for her but if Bernie loses, we are still rising and will continue to gain support and continue to rise. So while I really really want this, it's gonna be OK either way.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)plus she sunk a lot of her resources into this state.
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)As celebratory as her DU supporters seem to be. I damn sure wouldn't be celebrating jack with that polling.
Remember, as much as "they" want us to forget it, HRH IS the inevitable one.
Bernie is breathing fire down HRCs neck and I'd think they are at Defcon 2, possibly 1.
We need to GOTV, that is the key.
Get those rally numbers into the caucuses and we're done.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)other guy is within striking distance.
Blus4u
(608 posts)Both of them have been voting rethuglians the last two presidential elections.
Peace to you and relax...being nervous won' make a difference.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)do what you can and then LET.IT.GO.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)SandersDem
(592 posts)This,
Then This,
retrowire
(10,345 posts)This is my first election. I've never felt this way about anything before. I never fought for or participated in a real movement like this.
Fact of the matter is this.... Bernie leads in all the correct ways. It's a statistical deadheat between Clinton and him. O'Malley supporters and undecideds may have to be the deciders here. Plus, O'Malley supporters are more likely to swing to Bernie than Hillary.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/267573-poll-omalleys-iowa-backers-prefer-sanders-to-clinton
Secondly... The poll only asked about 3000 people what their opinion was... If we could get even a fraction of Bernie's rally numbers to show up to caucus.... That small polling sample become irrelevant.
Also, this. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511099143
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)The thing to remember is that Selzer went with the average turnout for first-time caucus-goers. Even with that, Hillary's lead is within the MOE. Does anyone here expect the turnout for first-time caucus-goers to be "average"? Does anyone here think a higher turnout among first-time caucus-goers will work to Hillary's advantage?
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)We're actually in a good spot: just a little bit behind, but not enough to be demoralizing. People are more likely to turn out when they feel their vote will make the difference.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)Awesome!
retrowire
(10,345 posts)LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)Vote, and keep on voting. People literally died for the right to vote. When Americans can't be bothered, although I think I understand at some level, it really bugs me. I've seen photos of people in third-world countries walking miles barefoot and/or standing under a hot sun in long lines waiting to vote and as for Americans, if there's a chance of rain, we stay home.
JudyM
(29,250 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)He's gonna take IA and NH. I FEEL it.
Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)I'm not that nervous. Even a narrow loss in IA is still a victory at this point, especially considering how far behind he was a few months ago; and he's now built the infrastructure, support, and momentum to go the long haul. To put it a little differently, losing Iowa is not going to hurt him nearly as much as I suspect it would hurt Hillary to lose there.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)is a narrow lead going into the caucus. They've gotten DWS to game the debate schedule, they've outright lied about Bernie's plan for single player, they've tried scaring us about how Bernie is a socialist/Jew/atheist/too old/too far left. It's my strong belief that David Brock is somewhere behind shopping the "off-the-record tips" (smears) to media outlets and those bogus flyers. Bill Clinton has been out stumping for HRC and they've drawn as much of an endorsement from Obama as they're likely to get.
They've had to resort to all of this, at a time when Bernie is at his most vulnerable (just before his first Presidential trial), and the end result is a narrow lead. Whether Bernie wins or loses in Iowa (and I still believe first-time caucus-goers will put him over the top), he's going to take NH. What's Hillary going to use then? What's she got left?
Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)as media reports have hinted, then "what's she got left" is a very good question. Support for Bernie is at such a fever pitch that I think a narrow loss in Iowa will do nothing but motivate the Sanderistas even more. Now, if he has like a surprise 20 or 30 point loss, then that will probably take some wind out of the sails, but most people seem committed to him on much more than a superficial level. Lots of Bernie supporters appear not only ready but eager to march through hell and back with the guy. So good for us.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)she had a Plan A and no Plan B.
jillan
(39,451 posts)Yes I'm a wreck
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)leftcoastmountains
(2,968 posts)Debating whether I should watch or just look at the aftermath.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)I will look at the results on DU like this:
swilton
(5,069 posts)a jumble of emotions
MrChuck
(279 posts)I want to believe in the landslide but the Selzer poll has me nervous. I see more Bernie passion than anything else but the Clinton is strong.
I'm a democrat though.
It's going to be fine.
mmonk
(52,589 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)to occasionally screw things up.
I think the key on our end is after we win tomorrow, popular vote or even by one delegate, we need to turn our attention to........
Nevada. Our phonebanking efforts have to be stepped up there to help our ground forces. We win there, that's where it gets interesting.
I for one think a close loss does not doom us but makes the primaries up to and including March 1 very very essential
senz
(11,945 posts)I could actually see Nevada going for Bernie.
roody
(10,849 posts)I'm excited and happy to have the real thing finally. Win or lose, our movement must continue the struggle and be bigger than Bernie.
Change comes from the bottom up, not the other way around.
senz
(11,945 posts)If we're to keep the movement going, we'll need organization and strategy.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)excited. nervous. I really want Sanders to win.
senz
(11,945 posts)Am on pins and needles. Have been hating NPR's constant little "advertisements" for Hill and subtle degradations of Bernie and can't stand to watch Hill's phony, phony act on TV. She's pretending to be Bernie. She's pumped up on whatever they give her and tons of money.
If Bernie doesn't win Iowa, his (and our) uphill struggle will be monumental.
He must win Iowa. {edit: comments from other Bernistas have reassured me some. Thanks.}
So many Americans know only what the MSM tells them. Thank God for fresh, MSM-free millennials and the rest of us aware folk.
If I thought God bothered him/herself with politics, I'd be praying hard.
Yeah, nervous.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)vs. the delegate count
senz
(11,945 posts)Iowa would be very cool for Bernie, but there are other target states, and as you say, the delegate count. Iowa is only one state.
Iowa seems important for Bernie momentum and also for putting the quash to Hill momentum. Many people vote based on perceptions rather than facts. Many simply go with the flow.
Iowa's also important for Bernie because this is his first big test. A win here would make him more solid. Unfortunately, the media has been diminishing New Hampshire as "next door to Vermont," so a win there won't be as important for him but would be big for her -- at this early point.