Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal
, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2549
The Times of India reports:
"The depression that formed over north Andaman Sea on Tuesday has since become a very severe cyclonic storm. It was detected about 650km from Paradip and 700km from Gopalpur at 5.30pm, moving in the north-west direction. Three days of analysis of the storm's movement indicates it will cross between Kalingapatnam ( Andhra Pradesh) and Paradip by the evening of October 12 evening with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185kmph," IMD Bhubaneswar centre director Sarat Sahu said.
He said the landfall would be preceded by winds of up to 65kmph starting from Friday. "It will increase in intensity with gale wind speed reaching 175-185kmph at the time of landfall," he said. Sea waves up to seven ft high were expected during the cyclone, he added.
The Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) office here said four coastal districts - Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur - are likely to bear the brunt of the storm. Under its impact, however, the entire state is expected to receive heavy rain starting from the morning of October 12.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Cyclone-intensifies-to-hit-Odisha-on-Saturday/articleshow/23930430.cms
