America has more guns in fewer hands than ever before

[flamin lib]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/05/america-has-more-guns-in-fewer-hands-than-ever-before%E2%80%8B/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

You've probably heard by now that the Obama administration has been a boon to the U.S. firearm industry. Gun manufacturers boosted production by 31 percent between 2011 and 2012. National tragedies from Newtown to Ferguson are accompanied by stories of surging gun sales.
<snip>
In 2014, guns were present in fewer than a third of U.S. households -- 32 percent -- according to the survey. That's 22 percentage points lower than the high of 54 percent recorded in 1977.

So this raises a question: where are all those newly-manufactured guns going?

Most likely, they're being added to the stockpiles of people who already own guns. If gun sales are up and household-level ownership rates are down, that's the only real logical conclusion.

=========

So 32% of households, of which maybe a third are batshit crazy gun nuts, have guns. Why is 10% of the populace dictating gun policy? Because that 10% writes letters, makes phone calls, sends emails, writes LTTEs and generally bully legislators every way they can. You can do that too. And there's a hell of a lot more of you than there are of them. Make a noise, be heard and act like the majority that you are.

Right now there is a bill pending in the U.S. Senate that would expand background checks to all gun sales; private, internet and gun show. It's called the Public Safety and Second Amendment Rights Protection Act of 2015. Call and email your senator today. Do it again tomorrow and the day after. Make them listen to you.

[jimmy the one]

1. no question, author? question....

Last edited Wed Mar 11, 2015, 09:29 AM - Edit history (1)

author first wrote: .... regardless of which survey you prefer, the decrease in household ownership rates is unmistakeable.

author then wrote: There's no question that gun rights groups like the NRA are winning the battle for hearts and minds on the issue. A December 2014 Pew Research Center poll showed that for the first time in two decades, there is more support among Americans for gun rights than gun control.

How can the author contend there is 'no question' when it's one poll? and within the margin of error there could possibly be parity. Has author never heard of confidence levels? where one poll out of 20 is even outside the margin of error? (ie way off, 95% {edit} confidence level).
How can the NRA be 'winning the hearts & minds on the issue', when gun ownership is falling & has generally been falling for 20 years? If falling gun ownership rates is the nra 'winning', well hooray!
Until the Pew poll is corroborated by another reputable poll, or perhaps corroborated by the next pew poll on the question, I can't support what author says there about being 'no question'; although I certainly do consider pew a reputable poll.

[flamin lib]

3. Pew has questioned that result in their own poll

because in that same poll there was large support for UBC and other gun control proposals.

I think the hearts and minds referred to are the hearts and minds of legislators, or at least their wallets, that continue to loosen restrictions on guns.

At the end he says for all that the NRA hasn't been able to broaden it's ownership base, just sell more guns to the same usual suspects.

[billh58]

2. Digging deeper into the decline in gun ownership...

The demographics and politics of gun-owning households

But regional differences emerge when race is factored into the analysis. White southerners are significantly more likely to have a gun at home (47%) than whites in other regions. But because blacks disproportionately live in the South and are only half as likely to have a gun at home as whites, the overall rate for the southern region falls to 38%.

Other longstanding beliefs about the makeup of America’s gun-owning households are confirmed by these data. For example, rural residents and older adults are disproportionately more likely than other Americans to have a gun at home.

Americans with a gun at home also differ politically from other adults. Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to be members of a gun-owning household. Political independents also are more likely than Democrats to have a firearm in their homes.

As a group, Americans who have a gun at home see themselves differently than do other adults. According to the survey, adults in gun-owning households are more likely to think of themselves as an “outdoor person” (68% vs. 51%) or “a typical American” (72% vs. 62%), and to say “honor and duty are my core values” (59% vs. 48%).

The right-wing gun lobby has been very successful at recruiting their political and ideological base: Tea Party, Bars & Stars, "patriot" gun nuts with a cause.

[billh58]

4. From today's news

Chicago Tribune

The number of Americans who live in a household with at least one gun is lower than it's ever been, according to a major American trend survey that finds the decline in gun ownership is paralleled by a reduction in the number of Americans who hunt..

According to the latest General Social Survey, 32 percent of Americans either own a firearm themselves or live with someone who does, which ties a record low set in 2010. That's a significant decline since the late 1970s and early 1980s, when about half of Americans told researchers there was a gun in their household.

The General Social Survey is conducted by NORC, an independent research organization based at the University of Chicago, with money from the National Science Foundation. Because of its long-running and comprehensive set of questions about the demographics, behaviors and attitudes of the American public, it is a highly regarded source of data about social trends.

Data from the 2014 survey was released last week, and an analysis of its findings on gun ownership and attitudes toward gun permits was conducted by General Social Survey staff.

The right-wing gun lobby claims that Americans lie about owning guns when they are surveyed. Why then, would a "highly regarded source," such as NORC and the National Science Foundation risk their reputations and credentials by releasing skewed information?

Fact: There are less US households with guns now (32%) than the 1970s and 1980s, and that number is declining.

[flamin lib]

5. That's exactly what the gun rights group said about the PEW poll that

showed more than 50% of respondents favored preserving gun rights over gun control; the same wording over time so it must be accurate. The difference is that PEW questioned their own data because the very same poll showed large margins supporting gun control policies like UBC and Assault Weapons Bans. How could the two seemingly divergent views be reconciled? One possibility is that although the question was the same the environment in which it was asked has changed, i.e. 45 years of framing the argument as "confiscating all the guns" has made the words "gun control" a pejorative even though most people support sensible restrictions on guns and the behavior associated with them.

[jimmy the one]

6. Good news from a New Pew!

FL: what the gun rights group said about the PEW poll that showed more than 50% of respondents favored preserving gun rights over gun control

Guess what flaming lib, everybody?!! Pew has a new poll which contradicts (countermands?) its last one! (tho I guess they didn't change the wording) Wow a swing of 5% pts, new differential from +6 guns, to -3 gun control, swing of 9 to our side!

Pew. July 14-20, 2015. N=2,002 adults nationwide.
"What do you think is more important -- to protect the right of Americans to own guns, or to control gun ownership?"
Protect right to own guns .... Control ownership ... Unsure/ Refused
7/14-20/15 ..... 47 .........................50 .............................3
12/3-7/14 ....... 52 .........................46 .............................3
near the top: http://www.pollingreport.com/guns.htm

..... hey lapierre-head - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[flamin lib]

7. Needs a thread of it's own for exposure. nt

[ellisonz]

8. Exactly. This isn't about simple gun ownership.

A hunting rifle or a shotgun or a revolver in the home. This is about a bunch of yahoos with semi-automatic weapons designed for maximum lethality against humans.

[Statistical]

10. You do understand that most handguns today are semiautomatic pistols right ...

Last edited Tue Sep 8, 2015, 04:31 PM - Edit history (1)

even people owning a single firearm are more likely to choose a semiautomatic pistol, rifle or shotgun.

On edit: clarification. most handguns SOLD today are semi-autos.

[ellisonz]

11. Yes and they account for the vast majority of gun deaths. n/t

[jimmy the one]

13. I think still more revolvers & non semi-autos

Last edited Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:53 PM - Edit history (1)

statistical: You do understand that most handguns today are semiautomatic pistols right ... even people owning a single firearm are more likely to choose a semiautomatic pistol, rifle or shotgun.

I do not believe that is technically correct, believe it or not. Due to the large existing revolver gunstock, semi-auto pistols have not yet surpassed them in percentage, even tho they've replaced revolvers as the predominant desired handgun. Most handguns which are SOLD today are semi-autos, but iirc it will take a while to surpass revolvers & derringers etc..
Not sure about rifles & sgs.

[Statistical]

15. Sorry I forgot a word.

It should have read "most handguns sold today. You are right there is a large quantity of existing revolvers. Honestly unless poorly made or improperly stored guns rarely wear even if no new revolvers were sold the supply will be pretty stable for many decades. We may never know the breakdown of revolvers vs semi-auto pistols because I doubt anyone even keeps stats like that.

[Statistical]

9. Saying "in less hands" isn't exactly accurate.

Hint: population of the US has increased.

Yes less households as % own firearms but that doesn't mean less gun owners.

The same is true of stats from the other side. Sure there were a record number of background checks but there were also a record number of citizens. Roughly speaking gun ownership has been steady for decades.

[jimmy the one]

12. the rise & FALL of gun ownership rates

Statistical (juxtaposed): Yes less households as % own firearms but that doesn't mean less gun owners. Hint: population of the US has increased.

Yeah, according to two reputable polls, pew & gss, it means gun owners - by rate, per capita, which is the proper way over time to contrast whether gun ownership is trending up or falling:

The Pew Research Center has tracked gun ownership since 1993, and our surveys largely confirm the General Social Survey trend.
Pew survey conducted Feb. 13-18 {2013} 37% of adults reported having a gun in their household: 24% say they personally own a gun, and 13% say the gun or guns in their home are owned by someone else. These figures are not significantly different from the 2012 General Social Survey estimates that 34% of households have guns, and 22% of individuals own a gun.

http://www.people-press.org/2013/03/12/section-3-gun-ownership-trends-and-demographics/
In our {Pew} Dec 1993 survey, 45% reported having a gun in their household; in early 1994, the GSS found 44% saying they had a gun in their home.
A January 2013 Pew Research Center survey found 33% saying they had a gun, rifle or pistol in their home,
as did 34% in the 2012 wave of the General Social Survey.

I have to take pew & gss results over yours, despite your name. Total gun owners est'd 80 million.

[Statistical]

14. which isn't the same thing as "more guns in fewer hands"

I agreed that the % of population that owns guns has declined however the population has risen and thus saying "in fewer hands". If there were 65M gun owners in 1980 and there are >=65M gun owners today then it would not be "in fewer hands". It is only fewer is the nominal number decreases. Whites make up a smaller percentage of the population but there are not fewer white Americans than in the past.

Thanks for the references. Most just reference household and while it looks like the numbers follow each other it is nice to see owners specifically. Lets look at GSS.

% of persons indicating they owned a gun
29% of population in 1980
22% of population in 2012

Population of US
1980 - 226.5M
2012 - 311.7M

Nominal owners of guns
1980 - 65.7M (226.5M * 29%)
2013 - 68.6M (311.7M * 22%)

That would be more guns in slightly more (not fewer) hands. Right?

[jimmy the one]

16. much larger increase in 'non gun-owners'

statistical: Population of US
1980 - 226.5M ..... 2012 - 311.7M >>>> Note: 2015 est 316M
Nominal owners of guns
1980 - 65.7M (226.5M * 29%) 2013 - 68.6M (311.7M * 22%)

That would be more guns in slightly more (not fewer) hands. Right?

Yes, with those numbers, better said 'at parity' with little change; I think pew is closer with near 25% actually, since a lot of teenagers younger than 18 can own rifles & consider themselves gun owners.
But realize this as well; using your stats, the number of people NOT owning guns has also gone up:

1980 No gun peoples: 160.8 Million peeps (226.5 x 0.71 = 160.8)
2012 No gun peoples: 243.1 million peeps 311.7 x 0.78 = 243)

So the number of americans who do not own guns in America today has increased by 83 million people since 1980 while the population increased by ~85 million, while the number of gun owners during same time period increased only 3 to 10 million, remaining near parity.
The trend is away from gun ownership, accd'g to pew & gss stats.
Indeed, almost the entire increase in population since 1980, can be statistically said to consist of 'non gun owners'. Accd'g to pew & gss; Yow.