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cali

(114,904 posts)
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:20 PM Jan 2016

I find it shocking that the polls are so close in Iowa and NH

Hillary has everything. She has virtually all the endorsements. She has more money. She has superpacs. She has the organization and top operatives. She's the best known woman in the country. She has famous surrogates stumping for her. She has the resume. She's been setting up this run for years. The MSM has constantly trumpeted her as inevitable. She's as close to being an incumbent in the primary race, as any non-incumbent candidate has ever been.

She should be ahead by at least 15 points in both states, so what doesn't she have?

I still think she'll likely win, but I believe, if the polling is roughly accurate, that the close race speaks to her weakness in the general election.


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I find it shocking that the polls are so close in Iowa and NH (Original Post) cali Jan 2016 OP
I find it shocking that anyone pays attention to ANY polls. elleng Jan 2016 #1
The Bernites like the corporate polls now? Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #2
No. I don't like them, Hillarian. I don't post them. cali Jan 2016 #6
We will find that Bernie is leading by a larger Margin on Feb 1 INdemo Jan 2016 #10
Nothing to add to the discussion? senz Jan 2016 #15
I know it's got to be challenging. I'm not callous demwing Jan 2016 #21
Nice to know that Camp Guns Galore lives Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #48
Ooh, that's weak. senz Jan 2016 #50
Shame on Bernie for opposing the Brady bill. Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #87
And shame on Hillary for shilling for the vast right-wing conspiracy's war Art_from_Ark Jan 2016 #89
The NRA scored him "D-" so he's definitely NOT a gun nut. senz Jan 2016 #93
There were also 7 Dem Senators and 69 Dem congressmen who voted no Mnpaul Jan 2016 #117
So the big H means catnhatnh Jan 2016 #52
Camp Guns Galore? Art_from_Ark Jan 2016 #75
Are you recently shocked...or have you been shocked for weeks and weeks? Nt Sheepshank Jan 2016 #3
How.about responding to the points raised? cali Jan 2016 #8
Now I wonder why you singled out my post for your snark? Sheepshank Jan 2016 #11
The real shock Old Codger Jan 2016 #33
there's a whole row of gatekeepers with their thumbs on the scale: that's precisely MisterP Jan 2016 #4
What you say is absolutely true, and disgusting, but senz Jan 2016 #17
because all it can do is block coverage of Sanders, but not votes by those disgusted MisterP Jan 2016 #23
Thanks, I think I see what you mean. senz Jan 2016 #32
even just the debate-schedule situation can snowball: the politically-uninvolved MisterP Jan 2016 #34
I guess the important thing is to make sure they "hear" it. senz Jan 2016 #36
I could be wrong but it seem that like last time her support goes down when Bill tries to help awake Jan 2016 #5
I'm not surprised. I believe Bernie will win azmom Jan 2016 #7
I think Sanders has connected thematically ( if not personally) in a way that... Smarmie Doofus Jan 2016 #9
Yup. nt artislife Jan 2016 #14
So. well. said. senz Jan 2016 #18
Wonder why Bill came into the equation so early? Lint Head Jan 2016 #12
Bad internal polling. jeff47 Jan 2016 #84
I agree. Lint Head Jan 2016 #92
And that is backfiring big time CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #98
Bernie has UglyGreed Jan 2016 #13
Ah yes...the "expectations" game... brooklynite Jan 2016 #16
Ugh, no. And do you dispute that hill has every advantage? cali Jan 2016 #25
She has every advantage because she is the best candidate. MeNMyVolt Jan 2016 #29
I'm referring to materials facts not your personal opinion cali Jan 2016 #37
Sanders has advantages in four areas ConservativeDemocrat Jan 2016 #47
I would like to point out blondie58 Jan 2016 #63
Well, how about you answer? ConservativeDemocrat Jan 2016 #76
No, she's really not. senz Jan 2016 #45
Your sentence was incomplete Lokijohn Jan 2016 #53
lol, nice observation senz Jan 2016 #60
Media wants it close. They do this every election. More eyeballs. yeoman6987 Jan 2016 #19
I don't think it has much to do with Hillary but more to do with Bernie proposing things napi21 Jan 2016 #20
I think it has to do with Bernie addressing the power imbalance senz Jan 2016 #26
When the pollsters break out the actual registered Democrats in those polls, Progressive dog Jan 2016 #22
I predict that 10% of that 55% of Democrats for Hillary will just go Ho-hum on caucus day and A Simple Game Jan 2016 #35
And then the election will move to states like NY Progressive dog Jan 2016 #46
There are some in New York, like me, that are newly registered Democrats. A Simple Game Jan 2016 #56
There are a lot of Democrats in NY Progressive dog Jan 2016 #59
I'm doing what I can to get Bernie elected, if you don't think I should, I just don't care. n/t A Simple Game Jan 2016 #61
And I don't care that you don't care Progressive dog Jan 2016 #114
I went from Independent to Democrat zalinda Jan 2016 #69
You can choose to work for change Progressive dog Jan 2016 #115
You can work for change because you don't think they are all the same, just A Simple Game Jan 2016 #116
If you want obtainable change in this Demcracy, Progressive dog Jan 2016 #121
Using the landline phones and who were registered Democrats last election who voted... cascadiance Jan 2016 #38
Demographics. nt LexVegas Jan 2016 #24
Yep. Alfresco Jan 2016 #51
Hillary may have a lot of endorsements, a ton of money, SheilaT Jan 2016 #27
I'm not surprised at all. I've been predicting for a long time Bernie will win IA and NH emulatorloo Jan 2016 #28
". . . what doesn't she have?" Depaysement Jan 2016 #30
Trust. senz Jan 2016 #54
Might be the same thing nt Depaysement Jan 2016 #66
I find it frustrating that you keep professing her inevitability. Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #31
Agree! mountain grammy Jan 2016 #40
Same here! nt dorkzilla Jan 2016 #64
Yep. Le Taz Hot Jan 2016 #109
I thought polls didn't matter? ronnykmarshall Jan 2016 #39
I find it shocking that Bernie is now within the mark in of error FloridaBlues Jan 2016 #41
Last summer there were times he was this close, and then she pulled ahead pnwmom Jan 2016 #43
Why? They're both heavily white, rural states, and NH is next door to Vermont. And they've pnwmom Jan 2016 #42
He does have the endorsements blondie58 Jan 2016 #68
Yeah, that Coronel West is a biggie. pnwmom Jan 2016 #80
I Had never Heard of either of blondie58 Jan 2016 #90
There is a person named Cornel West who is an Obama hater. pnwmom Jan 2016 #91
Critic and "hater" have different meanings. senz Jan 2016 #94
He's a hater, as evidenced by his frequent choice of words. pnwmom Jan 2016 #95
That's how your side views the world. You think quid pro quo Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #111
West petulance is will known... Bigga is a random black person.... uponit7771 Jan 2016 #120
Saying Obama likened the presidency to a racial slur is hate... Not criticism uponit7771 Jan 2016 #119
Aside from the fact that IA has a history of not electing women. Beacool Jan 2016 #73
Not a single Democratic woman ever elected to Congress or the Governor's office. pnwmom Jan 2016 #81
Yeah, I never understood why that state has been given so much importance in the electoral process. Beacool Jan 2016 #85
6 years ago Iowa became the third state to allow marriage equality. progressoid Jan 2016 #102
What's the matter, buddy, my comment touched a raw nerve? Beacool Jan 2016 #110
Glass houses etc. progressoid Jan 2016 #113
Iowa is 93% White. Yet chose a Black candidate in 2008. progressoid Jan 2016 #100
So? Hillary's strongest base of support are African American and Latino voters. pnwmom Jan 2016 #105
+1, this has been repeated many times.... Hillary firewall is south Carolina uponit7771 Jan 2016 #118
She is very vulnerable. The Republican candidates are horrible, but she just is not a good JDPriestly Jan 2016 #44
Yeah, because Sanders is warm and fuzzy........ Beacool Jan 2016 #71
He is lovable. Mostly because he so clearly communicates that he cares JDPriestly Jan 2016 #78
That's a matter of opinion. Beacool Jan 2016 #79
He is lovable to the people who value certitude and a one-track mind pnwmom Jan 2016 #82
Plebe, please. HILLARY IS THE BEST KNOWN WOMAN IN THE WORLD. SHE WILL RULE THE WORLD. Hiraeth Jan 2016 #49
SHE WILL RULE THE WORLD Kalidurga Jan 2016 #55
Plebe, please. IT IS ORDAINED DESTINY. BILL CLINTON IS A GOD AND HAS DECREED IT. Hiraeth Jan 2016 #58
Sorry my bad Kalidurga Jan 2016 #72
I think if she wins a general election TheFarseer Jan 2016 #57
What doesn't she have? Good question. DFW Jan 2016 #62
The establishment has established Bernie is invisible nolabels Jan 2016 #86
I'm in the States for a brief while DFW Jan 2016 #97
Sorry, it was just my imagination, forget you saw me too nolabels Jan 2016 #99
Kick. senz Jan 2016 #65
Go Bernie!!! nt wolfie001 Jan 2016 #67
Meh, NH neighbors VT and IA prides itself in being unpredictable. Beacool Jan 2016 #70
Bernie and Donnie are selling resentment. Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #83
Iowa's demographics benefit Bernie. NurseJackie Jan 2016 #74
Enthusiasm gap for sure boobooday Jan 2016 #77
Yep... If Anyone Had Suggested This Possibility Last Spring... WillyT Jan 2016 #88
Must be time for another DWS dirty trick. jalan48 Jan 2016 #96
That's my take as well... vi5 Jan 2016 #101
It speaks to the new role of rainy Jan 2016 #103
Both Iowa And NH Are Very White-Bread States Vogon_Glory Jan 2016 #104
I'm in agreement with your supposition, and I think it speaks to the items like the doubt about.... dmosh42 Jan 2016 #106
The American electorate is weary of the politics of money and corruption. Tierra_y_Libertad Jan 2016 #107
We've been saturated with the bullshit JEB Jan 2016 #112
People still have questions Babel_17 Jan 2016 #108
Kick Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #122
 

cali

(114,904 posts)
6. No. I don't like them, Hillarian. I don't post them.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:30 PM
Jan 2016

I rarely even post in threads about them. I don't trust them, hence my caution in the op saying IF they are accurate. But it's not only the polls. There's the amount of money he's raised and the obvious enthusiasm plus the polls.
Instead of deflecting with weak snark, how about trying to respond to the points raised?

INdemo

(6,994 posts)
10. We will find that Bernie is leading by a larger Margin on Feb 1
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:35 PM
Jan 2016

So Hillary needs to stay in close contact with Howard Dean..she might need his help in drafting her Scream Speech!!

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
21. I know it's got to be challenging. I'm not callous
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:59 PM
Jan 2016

Hillary has my empathy, but Bernie has my vote...

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
89. And shame on Hillary for shilling for the vast right-wing conspiracy's war
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:35 PM
Jan 2016

I can't see why she calls herself a Democrat.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
93. The NRA scored him "D-" so he's definitely NOT a gun nut.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 11:20 PM
Jan 2016

As for the Brady bill, he thought some of the provisions should be done on a state by state level since states have widely different gun ownership problems.

As for calling himself a Democrat, he felt the Democratic Party had sold out to Conservatives on economic issues, so in fact he is more "Democrat/democrat" than the post-DLC Democratic Party was from 1990 onwards.

Mnpaul

(3,655 posts)
117. There were also 7 Dem Senators and 69 Dem congressmen who voted no
Thu Jan 14, 2016, 08:31 PM
Jan 2016

including Patrick Leahy. So your post doesn't make much sense. Parts of the bill were found to be unconstitutional.

Bernie not calling himself a Democrat was probably due to the fact that the Democrats worked against him to obstruct his agenda as mayor.

Of the 13 aldermen, 11 opposed him and blocked everything he tried to do. They were convinced that Mr. Sanders’s whisker-thin victory had been a fluke and were determined to stifle him. They fired his secretary. They refused to let him appoint his own cabinet. The city clerk opened his mail.

The voluble Mr. Sanders did not sit idly by. The Burlington Free Press described that first year as “one long shouting match.”

He finally gained his footing in March 1982 when he mounted a campaign against some of the aldermen who faced re-election. He mobilized voters, a tactic that would become a Sanders hallmark. And on Election Day, most of the old guard Democrats were tossed out, bolstering his progressive coalition of “Sanderistas.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/us/politics/as-mayor-bernie-sanders-was-more-pragmatic-than-socialist.html?_r=0

I wouldn't go running to accept that label either.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
75. Camp Guns Galore?
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:40 PM
Jan 2016

You mean, this camp?

?w=720

The second guy from the left looks familiar. I think his name is Clinton.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
11. Now I wonder why you singled out my post for your snark?
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:36 PM
Jan 2016

Other posts prior to mine also had they own angle without directly responding to your op.

So to respond, I wonder why with all of thoe cross over votes why BS isn't doing better in AZ, KY, GA and TX?

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
4. there's a whole row of gatekeepers with their thumbs on the scale: that's precisely
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:27 PM
Jan 2016

what will do her in

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
17. What you say is absolutely true, and disgusting, but
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:51 PM
Jan 2016

I don't understand how it will do her in. Lord knows I hope it does, but how would that work?

Maybe I'm just a little slower than usual this afternoon...

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
23. because all it can do is block coverage of Sanders, but not votes by those disgusted
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:06 PM
Jan 2016

at decades of deck-stacking against them economically and politically: Sanders' message isn't "let's support XYZ" but "the system is broken, blocking XYZ"

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
32. Thanks, I think I see what you mean.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:36 PM
Jan 2016

The actions of the gatekeepers illustrate the truth of Bernie's message. Is that it? If so, I agree. But this concept may be too sophisticated for the average voter. Many of them aren't even aware of it. The familiar analogy of fish unable to "see" the water they swim in comes to mind.

Or maybe I underestimate the intelligence and awareness of the average voter. An example might be the seeming refusal of Hillary supporters to see, or at least acknowledge, what we're talking about. Maybe they do see it, but they're shameless and don't care. Or perhaps they're in love with power and the prerogatives of power. Or, getting back to my original thought, maybe this really is too sophisticated for them. Maybe they think this is a popularity contest and Hillary is their BFF, and so they want her to win it, to get the coveted crown, and Bernie is that "man" who wants to deny Hill her long sought and much-deserved glory.

Okay, all of this is so disgusting, I don't think I can continue. Sorry to subject you to these meanderings, MisterP.

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
34. even just the debate-schedule situation can snowball: the politically-uninvolved
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:43 PM
Jan 2016

hear vaguely that there's few debates, then they hear there were like 20 for other elections, then they hear of DWS's threats of enforcement, then they hear of Gabbard's purging, and then all of DWS's other shenanigans in favor of her inevitable favorite

that all rubs people the wrong way when they hear about it, that it's the usual "politician" arrogantly assuming our votes and caring about nothing but getting into office at any cost

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
36. I guess the important thing is to make sure they "hear" it.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:52 PM
Jan 2016

The MSM doesn't like to discuss these things outright. But they will discuss allegations and accusations, so I guess that's what Bernie's campaign has to do, and do carefully so as not to seem like complainers.

And, of course, we regular people can talk it up to the hilt in message boards and social media, which we must do repeatedly until people "get it." Without boring or alienating them.

I appreciate your patient explanations.

awake

(3,226 posts)
5. I could be wrong but it seem that like last time her support goes down when Bill tries to help
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:27 PM
Jan 2016

The "Big Dog" has become the old dog. I my opinion she is best with out the help of her handlers, drop the "staging" and meet the people with out the need of screeners.

 

Smarmie Doofus

(14,498 posts)
9. I think Sanders has connected thematically ( if not personally) in a way that...
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:33 PM
Jan 2016

MSM and TPTB in the DEM party did not believe was possible.

It's less that "she's horrible" than a LOT of people are really sick and tired of the social, political, and economic established order that she has promised to defend and perpetuate. ( Not to mention this god-awful foreign policy of "war without end amen".)

I mean to say there are a *LOT* of people.

And they really *are* SICK AND TIRED.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
18. So. well. said.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:56 PM
Jan 2016

What's amazing is that her people still can't see it.

They are ensconced in short-sighted smugness. Just floors me. Astounding ignorance.

Lint Head

(15,064 posts)
12. Wonder why Bill came into the equation so early?
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:38 PM
Jan 2016

He may have been more helpful if he had waited until they see how the first primary shook out. Otherwise if they waited to closer to the election, Bill's problems could be used as faux targets the GOP would attack as opposed to what people really want to hear from their leaders. People would get bored of the subject just as they did right before Bill was elected the second time. Extramarital affairs are used to trash talk. Trump is the orangutan slinging his turds just to see where they will stick. People get bored with talk of marital infidelities rather quickly. Trump has a trainload of infidelities. Bernie seems not to be absolutely squeaky clean, but almost.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
84. Bad internal polling.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:17 PM
Jan 2016

IMO, the internal polling must not be good.

Clinton's strategy this entire primary has been to try and wrap it up long before people get a chance to really look at the alternatives. If there aren't any votes yet, "inevitable" works. If she loses in IA and NH, "inevitable" has big problems.

And it doesn't look like they have an alternative to "inevitable" that they like.

So my guess is their internal polling is not good in IA and NH (possibly NV and SC), threatening "inevitable". So they're breaking out Bill early to try and shore it up.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
98. And that is backfiring big time
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 08:43 AM
Jan 2016

Every article about Bill campaigning for Hillary in Iowa and NH includes analysis and discussion of his past sexual escapades. Roughly 1/2 to 1/3 of these article ends up re-hashing the sex stuff.

Furthermore, articles specifically devoted to Bill Clinton's sex scandals are becoming more numerous. The Sunday political shows spend a great deal of time talking about Bill's sexual history.

I was always on the side of the Clinton's in the 1990's, even during the Lewinsky situation. Now, all of this is just really tiresome and frankly--old, shameful news that appears to keep our party stuck in the mud.

Unfortunately, this is baggage that Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton will never be able to unload.

If they had continued with their Clinton Foundation and other endeavors, maybe this stuff would have faded and their good works would have moved to the forefront. When you run for President, the opposite happens. All of the scandal and past allegations are dug up, stirred around and visible in the headlines.

UglyGreed

(7,661 posts)
13. Bernie has
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:40 PM
Jan 2016

people power Hillary has connections, for once I like to see the people win for a change......

brooklynite

(94,713 posts)
16. Ah yes...the "expectations" game...
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:48 PM
Jan 2016

Hype up the prospective strength of your opponent so that even a win is seen as "losing"/

 

MeNMyVolt

(1,095 posts)
29. She has every advantage because she is the best candidate.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:16 PM
Jan 2016

Oops, sorry. I didn't speak Cali. The best fucking candidate.

ConservativeDemocrat

(2,720 posts)
47. Sanders has advantages in four areas
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:05 PM
Jan 2016

One is that while his support isn't broad, it's deep. This helps in caucus states.

Two is that he is a favorite son in the Vermont/New Hampshire, New England region.

Three, he's a white male. Not female. This does help him a bit in certain demographics.

Four, and most importantly, unlike Hillary, he hasn't been the target of a 25 year smear campaign by Republicans and Republican-owned media. As the challenger who the Republicans would love to run against, he's had almost nothing thrown at him. The Koch brothers aren't even looking crosseyed at him. In fact, the only attack ad sent his way is from Trump, but he only did it on Instagram, not on the airwaves. So naturally, his negatives are kept down from lack of GOP opposition in the primary.

These are all absolute, irrefutable, facts. None of which will actually help him win the general.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Based Community

blondie58

(2,570 posts)
63. I would like to point out
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:57 PM
Jan 2016

That he may Get Points as a White Male, but how about all of the women Lining up to vote for The First female candidate?

I am a woman but I cannot vote for that Millionaire, Hillary. How can she relate to Those of us normal people?

ConservativeDemocrat

(2,720 posts)
76. Well, how about you answer?
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:41 PM
Jan 2016

It's date night, and there are two movies to see: mindless action hero who gets the sexy girl(s), and chick-flick.
Who always ends up compromising?

Obama got a huge percentage of the black vote as well. That doesn't mean that being black helped him among the majority culture, even if there are exceptions, such as yourself.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
45. No, she's really not.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:02 PM
Jan 2016

She's a former first lady (with baggage from that) who used her new fame to carpet-bag her way into a Senate seat where she made very bad votes with disastrous results for the country, then ran a nasty, unethical campaign for president which she lost with a great show of bad sportsmanship and resentment, then made a deal with the winner to get a highly-placed cabinet position in which she performed corruptly and poorly, again making very bad decisions resulting in further disasters for the Middle East. Her fame, power hunger and lack of ethics brought her many millions of dollars, and now she's running for president again.

That's her resume in a nutshell.

Lokijohn

(46 posts)
53. Your sentence was incomplete
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:19 PM
Jan 2016

"She has every advantage because she is the best candidate" for the status quo.

I gotta admit the oligarchs have some very impressive advantages to give to their candidate.

Go Bernie!

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
60. lol, nice observation
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:36 PM
Jan 2016

It's in Bernie's favor that the oligarchs could not find a stronger, more worthy candidate than Hillary on which to bestow their impressive advantages.

Still, it is sad that the greedy have so compromised our electoral system that this is where we find ourselves.

What's amazing is that a 73 year-old man who has been plugging away quietly for decades to serve his constituents, while always doing the right thing for his country, should step out of seeming-nowhere (apologies, VT) to start telling the truth to the American people. And that the people were finally ready to hear it.

Yes: Go Bernie!

And welcome to DU, Lokijohn!

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
19. Media wants it close. They do this every election. More eyeballs.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:57 PM
Jan 2016

Hillary will win Iowa and New Hampshire.

napi21

(45,806 posts)
20. I don't think it has much to do with Hillary but more to do with Bernie proposing things
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 04:59 PM
Jan 2016

that lots of people really like, such as free state college, health care ass a right breaking up the huge financial institutions, against thee TTPP, etc. No candidate has said those things since FDR, and most people LOVED HIM!

I'm really torn between Hillary & Bernie. I really like them both for different reasons.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
26. I think it has to do with Bernie addressing the power imbalance
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:09 PM
Jan 2016

that is corrupting this country and causing widespread discomfort, and suffering, among millions of Americans.

People may want "things," but they also have a basic awareness of their surroundings, which is more important. That is why Bernie states, in every single stump speech, that he is here to start "a political revolution."

Progressive dog

(6,918 posts)
22. When the pollsters break out the actual registered Democrats in those polls,
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:00 PM
Jan 2016

both races become big wins for Hillary.
PPP on Jan 6

There's an
incredible divide between the Democrats
and independents planning to vote in
the primary- Clinton leads Sanders 55/36 with Democrats, but Sanders almost
completely cancels that out with a 59/29 advantage among non-Democrats
planning to vote in the primary.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
35. I predict that 10% of that 55% of Democrats for Hillary will just go Ho-hum on caucus day and
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:48 PM
Jan 2016

not bother showing up.

I can just hear the excuses people will have not to show up. I mean after all she's going to win so why should I waste a day? I don't care all that much and besides I have laundry to do. I really should go to work instead. Tommy has a dentist appointment that day. Etc.

I doubt that will be as big a problem with Bernie's supporters.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
56. There are some in New York, like me, that are newly registered Democrats.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:24 PM
Jan 2016

I left the Democratic party 25 or so years ago and recently rejoined to vote in the primary. Will likely return to unaffiliated if Bernie doesn't win in the primaries.

Progressive dog

(6,918 posts)
59. There are a lot of Democrats in NY
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:31 PM
Jan 2016

who have stayed registered as Democrats so that they have a say in who represents us. We don't pretend to be Democrats to vote for a single candidate. If we weren't going to vote in primaries and attend caucuses, we would have no reason to register as Democrats.

Progressive dog

(6,918 posts)
114. And I don't care that you don't care
Thu Jan 14, 2016, 07:02 PM
Jan 2016

and I don't even care if you support Bernie, but I do care when so many people seem to be pretending to be Democrats to get Bernie the Democratic nomination. Many of them seem to have a basic misunderstanding of how our government works, especially what powers the President actually has.

zalinda

(5,621 posts)
69. I went from Independent to Democrat
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:24 PM
Jan 2016

for Bernie as well. I really didn't give a damn who won the primary in 2008. I figured both would be about the same, disappointing. I was right. I'll probably go back to an Indie as well, unless something changes with the candidates the Democratic party puts up. Mostly the dems put up corporate dems, so what good does it do to stay a dem.

Z

Progressive dog

(6,918 posts)
115. You can choose to work for change
Thu Jan 14, 2016, 07:19 PM
Jan 2016

or you can claim they're all the same and avoid participation. If you really believe "they are about the same", expect to be just as disappointed with Bernie, should he become President. He can change almost nothing by himself, he needs all of those "corporate dems" plus Republicans in the house and Senate to achieve any of his legislative goals.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
116. You can work for change because you don't think they are all the same, just
Thu Jan 14, 2016, 08:08 PM
Jan 2016

don't join the Democratic party to do it.

Signed,
A proud DINO from the left ( a rare breed indeed)

Progressive dog

(6,918 posts)
121. If you want obtainable change in this Demcracy,
Mon Jan 18, 2016, 05:07 PM
Jan 2016

you must elect a government that also wants your change. That is tough to do if you are not a member of a political party that has enough members to have a chance to gain majorities in Congress.

 

cascadiance

(19,537 posts)
38. Using the landline phones and who were registered Democrats last election who voted...
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:53 PM
Jan 2016

... and other things that tweak polls to move away from the demographics that favor Bernie (the youth more cell phone centric vote and those that weren't old enough to vote last election, the independents that are now registering specifically to support Bernie in the primary, etc.).

Yes, the corporate media have so much incentive to support a more corporate interest favoring candidate by doctoring the polls in this fashion. Yes, Hillary had a huge lead over Barack Obama in last election (who was even less a strong populist platform and following than Bernie does this time around) and she still lost that election too. Polls didn't mean much then. I suspect they will be exposed more as a manipulative tool than a reflection of reality this election too.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
27. Hillary may have a lot of endorsements, a ton of money,
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:10 PM
Jan 2016

superpacs, and so on, but what she doesn't have is a lot of ordinary people extraordinarily passionate about her candidacy. What she also has is a history that doesn't bear a lot of close scrutiny. I'm not talking about the Benghazi crap, but things like her Iraq War Vote, her support of the TPP, NAFTA, DOMA. She's changed her mind on so many things that I, along with many others, don't find her trustworthy at all. She passes on attending a Family Forum in Iowa because she needed to recover from a high donor event a day or so earlier.

Ordinary voters are seeing through her hypocrisy, her devotion to the wealthy, her actual lack of concern for the 99%. Her excuse, such as it is, for not attending the Family Forum shows just how committed she is to real families and addressing real voters about their concerns.,

Ed Suspicious

(8,879 posts)
31. I find it frustrating that you keep professing her inevitability.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:30 PM
Jan 2016

We agree on like everything except that I think Bernie will win.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
109. Yep.
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:28 PM
Jan 2016

I'm seeing poll numbers that would have been unthinkable 6 months ago. And the trend is unmistakable -- he's gaining and she's dropping. New Hampshire is looking VERY good and both Iowa and Nevada are now in play. If he can win Iowa and New Hampshire and win or come in a close 2nd in Nevada that gives him the momentum going into Super Tuesday (South Carolina is lost to Her Highness).

FloridaBlues

(4,008 posts)
41. I find it shocking that Bernie is now within the mark in of error
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:58 PM
Jan 2016

After he has been up 10 plus this entire time.

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
42. Why? They're both heavily white, rural states, and NH is next door to Vermont. And they've
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 05:58 PM
Jan 2016

have been close since last summer.

What would be shocking is if Bernie suddenly got close in South Carolina, with a heavily minority electorate. He hasn't been showing much polling strength with Democrats who are African American or Latino -- yet.

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
91. There is a person named Cornel West who is an Obama hater.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 10:31 PM
Jan 2016

He's called Obama the "first N*ized President," among other slurs.

So he's not the best person to reach out to most African American voters.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
94. Critic and "hater" have different meanings.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 11:23 PM
Jan 2016

Cornell West criticized Obama for not doing enough for AAs. That doesn't mean he hates him.

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
95. He's a hater, as evidenced by his frequent choice of words.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 11:31 PM
Jan 2016

His former colleague at Princeton, Melissa-Harris Perry, attributes it to West's pique at not getting special tickets to the inauguration.

I think he's simply jealous that Obama has achieved far more than he ever will.

Ed Suspicious

(8,879 posts)
111. That's how your side views the world. You think quid pro quo
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:38 PM
Jan 2016

makes the world go around. I think you all don't quite know how to handle people who will sacrifice carrer for principles. I think you'll never figure it out.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
73. Aside from the fact that IA has a history of not electing women.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:38 PM
Jan 2016

Joni Ernst is the first woman that IA has ever elected to Congress.

"In its 168 years, Iowa has never elected a woman to Congress, or picked one as its governor."

http://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-this-could-be-the-year-iowa-sends-its-first-woman-to-congress/

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
81. Not a single Democratic woman ever elected to Congress or the Governor's office.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:09 PM
Jan 2016

With a Repub, Joni Ernst, the only woman elected to Congress.

Wow.

Here in WA, both our Senators are women and we've had a popular female Governor, too.

You're right. Iowa seems to be lagging behind in a number of ways.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
85. Yeah, I never understood why that state has been given so much importance in the electoral process.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:17 PM
Jan 2016

progressoid

(49,996 posts)
102. 6 years ago Iowa became the third state to allow marriage equality.
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 10:21 AM
Jan 2016

When did that happen in New Jersey?

And New Jersey's female senator is whom?

Ah, but you did have a female governor. A republican, but female so...

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
105. So? Hillary's strongest base of support are African American and Latino voters.
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 11:23 AM
Jan 2016

And Iowa doesn't have many.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
44. She is very vulnerable. The Republican candidates are horrible, but she just is not a good
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:01 PM
Jan 2016

candidate. Bill Clinton was a huggable man. Hillary is a cold fish, and voters feel it. Whether or not she wins the primary, she will be a bad candidate. She just does not make people feel like she cares about them or would be fun to have as president.

Very superficial way to vet a candidate, but in the end, presidents win because voters are drawn to them and really like them.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
78. He is lovable. Mostly because he so clearly communicates that he cares
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 08:21 PM
Jan 2016

about the American people. His passion is what sells him.

None of that with Clinton. She seems more calculating than passionate. And her record backs up my conclusion. She changes stances very easily without seeming to realize she is doing it because she was never all that passionate about the stances she originally held. She calculates what is politically expedient.

Bernie just does not think that way. He thinks about his values, then decides what is right based on those values and then decides his policy views. That is how a moral person thinks and makes decisions.

pnwmom

(108,990 posts)
82. He is lovable to the people who value certitude and a one-track mind
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:10 PM
Jan 2016

and lots of shouting and handwaving.

Less lovable to those who don't.

TheFarseer

(9,323 posts)
57. I think if she wins a general election
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:24 PM
Jan 2016

It will only be because the electoral college sets up so a democrat almost can't lose in 2016 no matter how weak they are.

DFW

(54,436 posts)
62. What doesn't she have? Good question.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 06:55 PM
Jan 2016

First thing that comes to my mind is 24 years of being completely under the radar of the Republican hate machine.

Don't get me wrong. If Bernie is our nominee, he'll get his "fair share." In spades. But until big Republican money sees him as their opponent in November, they'll leave him alone.

nolabels

(13,133 posts)
86. The establishment has established Bernie is invisible
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:26 PM
Jan 2016

And make sure you do not mention his name

DFW

(54,436 posts)
97. I'm in the States for a brief while
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 12:01 AM
Jan 2016

I saw on a newscast in the airport (CNN) something on the upcoming primary season, and it displayed Bernie's photo, with his name, just as large as Hillary's right alongside her. To get noticed, all you have to do is be noticeable. He did, and he is. Establishment, oligarchs, corporatists, and the bogey man. Trust me, there is no need to go running for the briar patch.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
70. Meh, NH neighbors VT and IA prides itself in being unpredictable.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:31 PM
Jan 2016

Last edited Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:19 PM - Edit history (1)

Even if Sanders wins both I don't see a path to his nomination. And before someone brings up Obama, no, it's not 2008 and Sanders is not Obama.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
74. Iowa's demographics benefit Bernie.
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:38 PM
Jan 2016

Hillary is doing great! (We've long known that Bernie would win *something* ... just not the nomination.)

Go Hillary!

boobooday

(7,869 posts)
77. Enthusiasm gap for sure
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 07:44 PM
Jan 2016

I am filled with dread at the thought of hearing about Bill and his escapades and watching his finger-wagging and lip-biting phoniness for the next 8 years.

 

WillyT

(72,631 posts)
88. Yep... If Anyone Had Suggested This Possibility Last Spring...
Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:32 PM
Jan 2016
They would have been laughed off of this board.



Things change...

& Rec !!!

 

vi5

(13,305 posts)
101. That's my take as well...
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 10:16 AM
Jan 2016

I also think she'll likely win the primary. But the fact that such a large percentage of people within her own party feel this lukewarm and far from enamored with her should give her and her campaign major pause.

Yes, I think most of us who don't want her to win the primary will still end up holding our noses and supporting her. But is that enough? There's no way in hell I'll even give a dollar of my money or a minute of my time campaigning for her even if I do end up pressing the button for her on general election day. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels that way.

rainy

(6,092 posts)
103. It speaks to the new role of
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 10:38 AM
Jan 2016

The Information Age and the fact that MSM is becoming less important and powerful

Vogon_Glory

(9,127 posts)
104. Both Iowa And NH Are Very White-Bread States
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 10:42 AM
Jan 2016

Both Iowa and New Hampshire are very white-bread states. Not much in the way of racial minorities in either and, as we are all too aware, a Democrat with a lily-white voting base is NOT going to get elected President.

dmosh42

(2,217 posts)
106. I'm in agreement with your supposition, and I think it speaks to the items like the doubt about....
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 12:05 PM
Jan 2016

any changes in class equality or policies opposing the GOP. I have felt that the degree of being civil to the opponents of Obama's
policies seem to energize the right wing and has made the Dems seem lacking in will or desire.

 

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)
107. The American electorate is weary of the politics of money and corruption.
Mon Jan 11, 2016, 12:27 PM
Jan 2016

And, also weary of playing the quadrennial charade of "not as bad" politics as usual and believing that "this time it will be different".

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