2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI find it shocking that the polls are so close in Iowa and NH
Hillary has everything. She has virtually all the endorsements. She has more money. She has superpacs. She has the organization and top operatives. She's the best known woman in the country. She has famous surrogates stumping for her. She has the resume. She's been setting up this run for years. The MSM has constantly trumpeted her as inevitable. She's as close to being an incumbent in the primary race, as any non-incumbent candidate has ever been.
She should be ahead by at least 15 points in both states, so what doesn't she have?
I still think she'll likely win, but I believe, if the polling is roughly accurate, that the close race speaks to her weakness in the general election.
elleng
(131,077 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)I rarely even post in threads about them. I don't trust them, hence my caution in the op saying IF they are accurate. But it's not only the polls. There's the amount of money he's raised and the obvious enthusiasm plus the polls.
Instead of deflecting with weak snark, how about trying to respond to the points raised?
INdemo
(6,994 posts)So Hillary needs to stay in close contact with Howard Dean..she might need his help in drafting her Scream Speech!!
senz
(11,945 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)Hillary has my empathy, but Bernie has my vote...
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)in denial.
senz
(11,945 posts)Need another straw to clutch?
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)I see why he never called himself a Democrat.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)I can't see why she calls herself a Democrat.
senz
(11,945 posts)As for the Brady bill, he thought some of the provisions should be done on a state by state level since states have widely different gun ownership problems.
As for calling himself a Democrat, he felt the Democratic Party had sold out to Conservatives on economic issues, so in fact he is more "Democrat/democrat" than the post-DLC Democratic Party was from 1990 onwards.
Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)including Patrick Leahy. So your post doesn't make much sense. Parts of the bill were found to be unconstitutional.
Bernie not calling himself a Democrat was probably due to the fact that the Democrats worked against him to obstruct his agenda as mayor.
The voluble Mr. Sanders did not sit idly by. The Burlington Free Press described that first year as one long shouting match.
He finally gained his footing in March 1982 when he mounted a campaign against some of the aldermen who faced re-election. He mobilized voters, a tactic that would become a Sanders hallmark. And on Election Day, most of the old guard Democrats were tossed out, bolstering his progressive coalition of Sanderistas.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/us/politics/as-mayor-bernie-sanders-was-more-pragmatic-than-socialist.html?_r=0
I wouldn't go running to accept that label either.
catnhatnh
(8,976 posts)Camp Hyperbole??? Who knew...
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)You mean, this camp?
?w=720
The second guy from the left looks familiar. I think his name is Clinton.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Other posts prior to mine also had they own angle without directly responding to your op.
So to respond, I wonder why with all of thoe cross over votes why BS isn't doing better in AZ, KY, GA and TX?
Old Codger
(4,205 posts)will be when she is not on the ballot in Nov.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)what will do her in
senz
(11,945 posts)I don't understand how it will do her in. Lord knows I hope it does, but how would that work?
Maybe I'm just a little slower than usual this afternoon...
MisterP
(23,730 posts)at decades of deck-stacking against them economically and politically: Sanders' message isn't "let's support XYZ" but "the system is broken, blocking XYZ"
senz
(11,945 posts)The actions of the gatekeepers illustrate the truth of Bernie's message. Is that it? If so, I agree. But this concept may be too sophisticated for the average voter. Many of them aren't even aware of it. The familiar analogy of fish unable to "see" the water they swim in comes to mind.
Or maybe I underestimate the intelligence and awareness of the average voter. An example might be the seeming refusal of Hillary supporters to see, or at least acknowledge, what we're talking about. Maybe they do see it, but they're shameless and don't care. Or perhaps they're in love with power and the prerogatives of power. Or, getting back to my original thought, maybe this really is too sophisticated for them. Maybe they think this is a popularity contest and Hillary is their BFF, and so they want her to win it, to get the coveted crown, and Bernie is that "man" who wants to deny Hill her long sought and much-deserved glory.
Okay, all of this is so disgusting, I don't think I can continue. Sorry to subject you to these meanderings, MisterP.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)hear vaguely that there's few debates, then they hear there were like 20 for other elections, then they hear of DWS's threats of enforcement, then they hear of Gabbard's purging, and then all of DWS's other shenanigans in favor of her inevitable favorite
that all rubs people the wrong way when they hear about it, that it's the usual "politician" arrogantly assuming our votes and caring about nothing but getting into office at any cost
senz
(11,945 posts)The MSM doesn't like to discuss these things outright. But they will discuss allegations and accusations, so I guess that's what Bernie's campaign has to do, and do carefully so as not to seem like complainers.
And, of course, we regular people can talk it up to the hilt in message boards and social media, which we must do repeatedly until people "get it." Without boring or alienating them.
I appreciate your patient explanations.
awake
(3,226 posts)The "Big Dog" has become the old dog. I my opinion she is best with out the help of her handlers, drop the "staging" and meet the people with out the need of screeners.
azmom
(5,208 posts)the presidency.
Smarmie Doofus
(14,498 posts)MSM and TPTB in the DEM party did not believe was possible.
It's less that "she's horrible" than a LOT of people are really sick and tired of the social, political, and economic established order that she has promised to defend and perpetuate. ( Not to mention this god-awful foreign policy of "war without end amen".)
I mean to say there are a *LOT* of people.
And they really *are* SICK AND TIRED.
artislife
(9,497 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)What's amazing is that her people still can't see it.
They are ensconced in short-sighted smugness. Just floors me. Astounding ignorance.
Lint Head
(15,064 posts)He may have been more helpful if he had waited until they see how the first primary shook out. Otherwise if they waited to closer to the election, Bill's problems could be used as faux targets the GOP would attack as opposed to what people really want to hear from their leaders. People would get bored of the subject just as they did right before Bill was elected the second time. Extramarital affairs are used to trash talk. Trump is the orangutan slinging his turds just to see where they will stick. People get bored with talk of marital infidelities rather quickly. Trump has a trainload of infidelities. Bernie seems not to be absolutely squeaky clean, but almost.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)IMO, the internal polling must not be good.
Clinton's strategy this entire primary has been to try and wrap it up long before people get a chance to really look at the alternatives. If there aren't any votes yet, "inevitable" works. If she loses in IA and NH, "inevitable" has big problems.
And it doesn't look like they have an alternative to "inevitable" that they like.
So my guess is their internal polling is not good in IA and NH (possibly NV and SC), threatening "inevitable". So they're breaking out Bill early to try and shore it up.
Lint Head
(15,064 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Every article about Bill campaigning for Hillary in Iowa and NH includes analysis and discussion of his past sexual escapades. Roughly 1/2 to 1/3 of these article ends up re-hashing the sex stuff.
Furthermore, articles specifically devoted to Bill Clinton's sex scandals are becoming more numerous. The Sunday political shows spend a great deal of time talking about Bill's sexual history.
I was always on the side of the Clinton's in the 1990's, even during the Lewinsky situation. Now, all of this is just really tiresome and frankly--old, shameful news that appears to keep our party stuck in the mud.
Unfortunately, this is baggage that Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton will never be able to unload.
If they had continued with their Clinton Foundation and other endeavors, maybe this stuff would have faded and their good works would have moved to the forefront. When you run for President, the opposite happens. All of the scandal and past allegations are dug up, stirred around and visible in the headlines.
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)people power Hillary has connections, for once I like to see the people win for a change......
brooklynite
(94,713 posts)Hype up the prospective strength of your opponent so that even a win is seen as "losing"/
cali
(114,904 posts)MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)Oops, sorry. I didn't speak Cali. The best fucking candidate.
cali
(114,904 posts)ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)One is that while his support isn't broad, it's deep. This helps in caucus states.
Two is that he is a favorite son in the Vermont/New Hampshire, New England region.
Three, he's a white male. Not female. This does help him a bit in certain demographics.
Four, and most importantly, unlike Hillary, he hasn't been the target of a 25 year smear campaign by Republicans and Republican-owned media. As the challenger who the Republicans would love to run against, he's had almost nothing thrown at him. The Koch brothers aren't even looking crosseyed at him. In fact, the only attack ad sent his way is from Trump, but he only did it on Instagram, not on the airwaves. So naturally, his negatives are kept down from lack of GOP opposition in the primary.
These are all absolute, irrefutable, facts. None of which will actually help him win the general.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Based Community
blondie58
(2,570 posts)That he may Get Points as a White Male, but how about all of the women Lining up to vote for The First female candidate?
I am a woman but I cannot vote for that Millionaire, Hillary. How can she relate to Those of us normal people?
ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)It's date night, and there are two movies to see: mindless action hero who gets the sexy girl(s), and chick-flick.
Who always ends up compromising?
Obama got a huge percentage of the black vote as well. That doesn't mean that being black helped him among the majority culture, even if there are exceptions, such as yourself.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community
senz
(11,945 posts)She's a former first lady (with baggage from that) who used her new fame to carpet-bag her way into a Senate seat where she made very bad votes with disastrous results for the country, then ran a nasty, unethical campaign for president which she lost with a great show of bad sportsmanship and resentment, then made a deal with the winner to get a highly-placed cabinet position in which she performed corruptly and poorly, again making very bad decisions resulting in further disasters for the Middle East. Her fame, power hunger and lack of ethics brought her many millions of dollars, and now she's running for president again.
That's her resume in a nutshell.
Lokijohn
(46 posts)"She has every advantage because she is the best candidate" for the status quo.
I gotta admit the oligarchs have some very impressive advantages to give to their candidate.
Go Bernie!
senz
(11,945 posts)It's in Bernie's favor that the oligarchs could not find a stronger, more worthy candidate than Hillary on which to bestow their impressive advantages.
Still, it is sad that the greedy have so compromised our electoral system that this is where we find ourselves.
What's amazing is that a 73 year-old man who has been plugging away quietly for decades to serve his constituents, while always doing the right thing for his country, should step out of seeming-nowhere (apologies, VT) to start telling the truth to the American people. And that the people were finally ready to hear it.
Yes: Go Bernie!
And welcome to DU, Lokijohn!
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Hillary will win Iowa and New Hampshire.
napi21
(45,806 posts)that lots of people really like, such as free state college, health care ass a right breaking up the huge financial institutions, against thee TTPP, etc. No candidate has said those things since FDR, and most people LOVED HIM!
I'm really torn between Hillary & Bernie. I really like them both for different reasons.
senz
(11,945 posts)that is corrupting this country and causing widespread discomfort, and suffering, among millions of Americans.
People may want "things," but they also have a basic awareness of their surroundings, which is more important. That is why Bernie states, in every single stump speech, that he is here to start "a political revolution."
Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)both races become big wins for Hillary.
PPP on Jan 6
incredible divide between the Democrats
and independents planning to vote in
the primary- Clinton leads Sanders 55/36 with Democrats, but Sanders almost
completely cancels that out with a 59/29 advantage among non-Democrats
planning to vote in the primary.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)not bother showing up.
I can just hear the excuses people will have not to show up. I mean after all she's going to win so why should I waste a day? I don't care all that much and besides I have laundry to do. I really should go to work instead. Tommy has a dentist appointment that day. Etc.
I doubt that will be as big a problem with Bernie's supporters.
Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)where only registered Democrats get to vote.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)I left the Democratic party 25 or so years ago and recently rejoined to vote in the primary. Will likely return to unaffiliated if Bernie doesn't win in the primaries.
Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)who have stayed registered as Democrats so that they have a say in who represents us. We don't pretend to be Democrats to vote for a single candidate. If we weren't going to vote in primaries and attend caucuses, we would have no reason to register as Democrats.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)and I don't even care if you support Bernie, but I do care when so many people seem to be pretending to be Democrats to get Bernie the Democratic nomination. Many of them seem to have a basic misunderstanding of how our government works, especially what powers the President actually has.
zalinda
(5,621 posts)for Bernie as well. I really didn't give a damn who won the primary in 2008. I figured both would be about the same, disappointing. I was right. I'll probably go back to an Indie as well, unless something changes with the candidates the Democratic party puts up. Mostly the dems put up corporate dems, so what good does it do to stay a dem.
Z
Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)or you can claim they're all the same and avoid participation. If you really believe "they are about the same", expect to be just as disappointed with Bernie, should he become President. He can change almost nothing by himself, he needs all of those "corporate dems" plus Republicans in the house and Senate to achieve any of his legislative goals.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)don't join the Democratic party to do it.
Signed,
A proud DINO from the left ( a rare breed indeed)
Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)you must elect a government that also wants your change. That is tough to do if you are not a member of a political party that has enough members to have a chance to gain majorities in Congress.
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... and other things that tweak polls to move away from the demographics that favor Bernie (the youth more cell phone centric vote and those that weren't old enough to vote last election, the independents that are now registering specifically to support Bernie in the primary, etc.).
Yes, the corporate media have so much incentive to support a more corporate interest favoring candidate by doctoring the polls in this fashion. Yes, Hillary had a huge lead over Barack Obama in last election (who was even less a strong populist platform and following than Bernie does this time around) and she still lost that election too. Polls didn't mean much then. I suspect they will be exposed more as a manipulative tool than a reflection of reality this election too.
LexVegas
(6,092 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)superpacs, and so on, but what she doesn't have is a lot of ordinary people extraordinarily passionate about her candidacy. What she also has is a history that doesn't bear a lot of close scrutiny. I'm not talking about the Benghazi crap, but things like her Iraq War Vote, her support of the TPP, NAFTA, DOMA. She's changed her mind on so many things that I, along with many others, don't find her trustworthy at all. She passes on attending a Family Forum in Iowa because she needed to recover from a high donor event a day or so earlier.
Ordinary voters are seeing through her hypocrisy, her devotion to the wealthy, her actual lack of concern for the 99%. Her excuse, such as it is, for not attending the Family Forum shows just how committed she is to real families and addressing real voters about their concerns.,
emulatorloo
(44,175 posts)Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Votes
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)We agree on like everything except that I think Bernie will win.
mountain grammy
(26,644 posts)dorkzilla
(5,141 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)I'm seeing poll numbers that would have been unthinkable 6 months ago. And the trend is unmistakable -- he's gaining and she's dropping. New Hampshire is looking VERY good and both Iowa and Nevada are now in play. If he can win Iowa and New Hampshire and win or come in a close 2nd in Nevada that gives him the momentum going into Super Tuesday (South Carolina is lost to Her Highness).
ronnykmarshall
(35,356 posts)FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)After he has been up 10 plus this entire time.
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)after the first debate.
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)have been close since last summer.
What would be shocking is if Bernie suddenly got close in South Carolina, with a heavily minority electorate. He hasn't been showing much polling strength with Democrats who are African American or Latino -- yet.
blondie58
(2,570 posts)Of Coronel West and Killer Mike.
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)blondie58
(2,570 posts)Them! 😼
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)He's called Obama the "first N*ized President," among other slurs.
So he's not the best person to reach out to most African American voters.
senz
(11,945 posts)Cornell West criticized Obama for not doing enough for AAs. That doesn't mean he hates him.
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)His former colleague at Princeton, Melissa-Harris Perry, attributes it to West's pique at not getting special tickets to the inauguration.
I think he's simply jealous that Obama has achieved far more than he ever will.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)makes the world go around. I think you all don't quite know how to handle people who will sacrifice carrer for principles. I think you'll never figure it out.
uponit7771
(90,359 posts)uponit7771
(90,359 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)Joni Ernst is the first woman that IA has ever elected to Congress.
"In its 168 years, Iowa has never elected a woman to Congress, or picked one as its governor."
http://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-this-could-be-the-year-iowa-sends-its-first-woman-to-congress/
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)With a Repub, Joni Ernst, the only woman elected to Congress.
Wow.
Here in WA, both our Senators are women and we've had a popular female Governor, too.
You're right. Iowa seems to be lagging behind in a number of ways.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)progressoid
(49,996 posts)When did that happen in New Jersey?
And New Jersey's female senator is whom?
Ah, but you did have a female governor. A republican, but female so...
Beacool
(30,250 posts)progressoid
(49,996 posts)progressoid
(49,996 posts)Iowa is over 64% urban. http://www.icip.iastate.edu/tables/population/urban-pct-states
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)And Iowa doesn't have many.
uponit7771
(90,359 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)candidate. Bill Clinton was a huggable man. Hillary is a cold fish, and voters feel it. Whether or not she wins the primary, she will be a bad candidate. She just does not make people feel like she cares about them or would be fun to have as president.
Very superficial way to vet a candidate, but in the end, presidents win because voters are drawn to them and really like them.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)about the American people. His passion is what sells him.
None of that with Clinton. She seems more calculating than passionate. And her record backs up my conclusion. She changes stances very easily without seeming to realize she is doing it because she was never all that passionate about the stances she originally held. She calculates what is politically expedient.
Bernie just does not think that way. He thinks about his values, then decides what is right based on those values and then decides his policy views. That is how a moral person thinks and makes decisions.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)To me he comes off cranky as heck.
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)and lots of shouting and handwaving.
Less lovable to those who don't.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)This is precisely why we don't want her.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)I will go back to shoe cobbling now.
TheFarseer
(9,323 posts)It will only be because the electoral college sets up so a democrat almost can't lose in 2016 no matter how weak they are.
DFW
(54,436 posts)First thing that comes to my mind is 24 years of being completely under the radar of the Republican hate machine.
Don't get me wrong. If Bernie is our nominee, he'll get his "fair share." In spades. But until big Republican money sees him as their opponent in November, they'll leave him alone.
nolabels
(13,133 posts)And make sure you do not mention his name
DFW
(54,436 posts)I saw on a newscast in the airport (CNN) something on the upcoming primary season, and it displayed Bernie's photo, with his name, just as large as Hillary's right alongside her. To get noticed, all you have to do is be noticeable. He did, and he is. Establishment, oligarchs, corporatists, and the bogey man. Trust me, there is no need to go running for the briar patch.
nolabels
(13,133 posts)wolfie001
(2,264 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)Last edited Sun Jan 10, 2016, 09:19 PM - Edit history (1)
Even if Sanders wins both I don't see a path to his nomination. And before someone brings up Obama, no, it's not 2008 and Sanders is not Obama.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)That has never won a national election in America.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Hillary is doing great! (We've long known that Bernie would win *something* ... just not the nomination.)
Go Hillary!
boobooday
(7,869 posts)I am filled with dread at the thought of hearing about Bill and his escapades and watching his finger-wagging and lip-biting phoniness for the next 8 years.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Things change...
& Rec !!!
jalan48
(13,881 posts)vi5
(13,305 posts)I also think she'll likely win the primary. But the fact that such a large percentage of people within her own party feel this lukewarm and far from enamored with her should give her and her campaign major pause.
Yes, I think most of us who don't want her to win the primary will still end up holding our noses and supporting her. But is that enough? There's no way in hell I'll even give a dollar of my money or a minute of my time campaigning for her even if I do end up pressing the button for her on general election day. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels that way.
rainy
(6,092 posts)The Information Age and the fact that MSM is becoming less important and powerful
Vogon_Glory
(9,127 posts)Both Iowa and New Hampshire are very white-bread states. Not much in the way of racial minorities in either and, as we are all too aware, a Democrat with a lily-white voting base is NOT going to get elected President.
dmosh42
(2,217 posts)any changes in class equality or policies opposing the GOP. I have felt that the degree of being civil to the opponents of Obama's
policies seem to energize the right wing and has made the Dems seem lacking in will or desire.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)And, also weary of playing the quadrennial charade of "not as bad" politics as usual and believing that "this time it will be different".
JEB
(4,748 posts)that corporate money pumps at us.
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)That's what I take away from any such shift in numbers.