Brand Spanking New Ipsos Reid Likely Democratic Voter Poll- HRC 63% - SBS 32% MOM 2%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150901-20160108/type/smallest

[leftofcool]

1. Hillary still leading by now triple digits.

[Godhumor]

21. Triple digits would be over 100 points

Think you should just go with over 30, heh.

[NurseJackie]

2. There'll be dancing in the streets when Hillary wins!! :-D !!!!!

[Thinkingabout]

3. Hillary is strong but we are still working hard, ever onward!

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. Hillary is really pushing the "electability" angle on the stump lately

That line will take a hit if she loses the first two elections. Brand new poll from Iowa now shows her lead shrunken to 3% That trend line is not promising for her.

[MoonRiver]

5. Uh, one poll does not make a trend. eom

[brooklynite]

6. Of course not--you have to look at ALL the Ipsos/Reuters polls...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Please bookmark this post...

Please bookmark this post...

Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the most sparsely populated, rural, and homogeneous states in the nation and the results from their primaries will have little or no impact on the more densely populated, urban/suburban, and heterogeneous states which will vote in the ensuing primaries and caucuses.

That is why the last three presidents have lost the New Hampshire primary while the last five presidents have won the South Carolina primary.

In fact the last Democratic president to win the New Hampshire primary is Jimmy Carter.

To borrow a boxing metaphor, Hillary Clinton will emerge as the winner. The only question is will it be a quick knockout, a middle round knockout, or a unanimous decision.

Thank you in advance and may your Sunday be a bright one.

[grahamhgreen]

7. HAHA! You guys have nothing to worry about! Take a vaca! Primaries over!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. " I ain't got no worries."

[Alfresco]

10. An enduring 30 point lead nationally. Looks good for Hillary.

[baldguy]

11. Wait - Sanders support is going **DOWN***???

What am I to make of all these posts saying Sanders is winning?!?!?

[Blue_Adept]

12. uh oh

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[Aerows]

16. He's a great guy.

I like him.

[Blue_Adept]

30. I'm just waiting to learn that this meme is racist

[Alfresco]

13. A well placed KICK. :-))

[One of the 99]

14. As the saying goes..

The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

[Aerows]

15. I'm going to link to this post

When the shock and awe occurs.

I won't laugh - I will breathe a sigh of relief.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Please go right ahead.

Please go right ahead.


I would literally bet my life on the outcome.


As always, thank you in advance.

[shiriu]

17. Could you share a link to the post Ipsos Reuters report from your numbers?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. It's only a click away.

It's only a click away. Please feel free to click:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150901-20160108/type/smallest


As always, thank you in advance.

[shiriu]

24. I want the released report. Ipsos Reuters release a report periodically.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I gave you a link. The frequency of the updates exceeds the frequency of the reports.

If you have evidence to the contrary please adduce it.


As always, thank you in advance.

[shiriu]

27. I saw the link. Reports are important, no need to be impatient in posting results.

Ipsos Reuters use "Democrat" voters in their reports, not "Likely Democratic Primary" voters. Why did you go against their choice and used likely democratics voters, which is a more restrict group?

Looking at the "Democrat" voters (which Ipsos Reuters used in the past) for the same day:
Clinton 55%
Sanders 32.9%
O'Malley 1.5

Second, what good is a single day rollout? What is the margin of error for the results you've posted?

There's a reason why we wait for reports, made by professionals. If a report is going to be released, we can wait for it. No need for impatience.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. It is not a random sample so there is no margin of error.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters January 2-6, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 1,754 Americans, including 709 Democrats, 634 Republicans, and 241 Independents ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all adults, 4.2 percentage points for Democrats, 4.4 percentage points for Republicans, and 7.2 percentage points for Independents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7105

Oh, we are arguing about the picayune but , of course, we know that.

[philosslayer]

18. oh the Bern....

the BERN!!!!!

[Attorney in Texas]

19. If I was supporting Clinton, I'd also want to draw attention away from Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

538 went so far as to say "To Win In Iowa Or New Hampshire, It May Be Better To Poll Worse Nationally," because bigger national poll totals raise Iowa and New Hampshire expectations which are devastating to fall short of meeting.

Let's bump this expectation-raising thread!

[hootinholler]

26. Did you visit the link?

First of all it's not a brand spanking new poll but rather it's a 5 day rolling average since September.

Second the OP has the likely primary voter filter on. Reset that and their numbers align well with RCP averages, which are showing a 19 point lead that is trending closer.

It's windy today and that weathervane is gonna need some oil soon.

[Attorney in Texas]

29. I didn't check the link but the poster has ignored likely voter data and posted the registered voter

cross tabs as if they were the poll result so I'm not surprised.

I agree with the Rachel Maddow, the folks at 538, etc., in the conclusion that national horse race polls are meaningless as predicting a primary result.

[cherokeeprogressive]

22. Diggety!

[Historic NY]

31. K&R

5 day rolling average......