Endorsement Calculus

[Bernin4U]

Growing up, I remember a popular meme that went something like, "You should accept Jesus and become a true Christian, because when you die and it turns out that there really is a Heaven, you'll regret not having done that. And it's no big loss if it turns out there is no Heaven."

Can't help but wonder if many endorsers are following a similar strategy...

[brooklynite]

1. ...except that, if you endorse the wrong candidate and they lose, you could lose as well.

I think a lot of politicians are smart enough to think about who's both electable and a strong President.

[Bernin4U]

8. Yeah, "strong", that's a fine euphemism

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. That's actually Pascal's Dilemma./nt

[longship]

4. Actually called Pascal's Wager.

Here: Pascal's Wager

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. My bad. You're correct./nt

[Bernin4U]

6. Rock and Roll!

[demwing]

3. Swear there ain't no heaven and I pray there ain't no hell

But we'll never know by polling, only our voting will tell
Yes, only our voting will tell, yeah, only our voting will tell

but after we vote, and after we're gone
There'll be more voters born
In this world to carry on, to carry on, yeah yeah...

[Vattel]

7. Guaranteed that if Sanders had gone into this the odds on favorite to get

the nomination, the endorsements would look very different.

[brooklynite]

10. Barack Obama came into the 2008 Primary with a significant share of endorsements...

...notwithstanding the alleged "fear of the Clintons".

Bernie Sanders has two House members and 4 DNC members.

[Vattel]

11. That is true, but does not contradict what I said.

[Bernin4U]

12. So it's chickenshit garden-variety bandwagoning,

rather than chickenshit quid pro quo and/or fear of reprisal?

[Vattel]

13. Lol, that does seem to be what I suggested, but maybe

it's partly that if Sanders were the odds on favorite there would be no fear of reprisals from Clinton to scare chickenshit congresspeeps away from endorsing Sanders.

[DemocraticWing]

9. I think most endorsers are writing off the primary as over.

They could certainly be wrong, but they think it's unlikely because the establishment support is all there for Hillary. If they expect something out of the next administration, then maybe they also assume that being a late-comer to Sanders bears less risk than with Hillary, who will surely have a lot of competing interests vying for attention considering the amount of support she's garnered from much of the establishment.