2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMA SENATE RACE: Warren + 6 (LV), +12 (RV)
The survey, which the Polling Institute conducted Sept. 6-13 in partnership with The Republican newspaper of Springfield, MA and MassLive.com, found that Warren is relying on sizable support from Democrats and women to overcome Browns lead among independent voters and men.
Of the 444 likely voters interviewed for the survey, 50 percent said they would support Warren if the election was held today, 44 percent said Brown, and six percent said they were undecided. Among the larger sample of 545 registered voters, Warren led Brown by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent, with six percent undecided. The margin of sampling error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, and the margin of error for the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/09/poll-warren-leads-brown-by-in-mass-135681.html
TroyD
(4,551 posts)https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/247451449250955264
Cha
(297,799 posts)Thanks Tarheel!
Tarheel_Dem
(31,245 posts)Looks like the convention might have given her a bump. I thought her speech was effective, and apparently the people of MA thought so as well. GO ELIZABETH!!!! If we take this one back, I think we hold our majority.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)The Kimball poll earlier in the week, this NE University poll, and the PPP poll to come later tonight.
So it looks like the NE University poll is not an outlier.
Cha
(297,799 posts)And, We have a Democratic former Congresswoman running for US Senator here in Hawai'i. Mazie Hirono is running against a former repub gov for 8 years who's trying to Etch A Sketch her record with tons of money ads(so I'm told..thankfully I don't have a tv).
Mazie got the Flight Attendants-CWA (AFA) Endorsement!
Improving the safety and work conditions of flight attendants goes hand-in-hand with improving passenger safety, said Hirono. This also relates to my legislation to increase tourism the VISIT USA Act which would create an estimated 6,000 jobs here in Hawaii alone. As passengers feel safer and safer on planes, especially during long-distance and international flights, they will be more inclined to visit places like Hawaii.
http://www.mazieforhawaii.com/what/press-releases/mazie-hirono-flies-high-with-latest-campaign-endorsement
Tarheel_Dem
(31,245 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)I had never thought about this until this year when someone told me, but Massachusetts has never elected a woman Governor or a woman Senator.
Is this just coincidence, or has there been an institutional bias against women being elected to higher office in MA (other than in the State legislature) ?
It's odd that other more conservative states have had women Governors and Senators (eg. Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona etc), but not in Massachusetts.
Hopefully Elizabeth Warren will put a stop to this historical pattern and make history.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,245 posts)Dems & women returning to the fold, has allowed Warren to overtake Brown's advantage among men and Independents.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)But in order to be assured of closing the deal, we need to improve Warren's numbers with Independents. She may not be able to beat Brown in that category, but if she can peel away just a few percent, victory will be more likely than going into Election Day with a 50/50 Toss-Up.
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)I'm trying not to freak out right now, but OMG!!!
Go Elizabeth!
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)Maybe Obama can help bring Warren across the finish line. It looks like having her as a featured speaker helped tremendously. And Clinton is really popular. Her campaigning undoubtedly will help there. She'd be a great addition to the Senate.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,245 posts)president's popularity, and double digit lead in the state. I'm hoping the "coattails" will extend to other races as well. Since this poll was taken after the conventions, I can only assume that her appearance at the DNC brought some folks off the fence.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)WOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOO!!!!! Hope she is able to win Ted Kennedy's seat back! This news just made my name. Hope it is a trend. Looking forward to other polls from MA. Oh and I can't wait to see Joe Scarborough's face tomorrow morning. He is so sure that the Republican will win that seat again because he is a good ol boy in a pick up truck. Go Elizabeth!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)She will probably move up a little more later tonight when PPP release their poll. It is expected to confirm the Western NE University poll that showed Warren ahead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_brown_vs_warren-2093.html