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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCharlie Cook: Obama’s a Good Bet
http://www.nationaljournal.com//columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-obama-s-a-good-bet-to-win-20120913?print=trueObamas a Good Bet
Mitt Romney could still win, thanks to the debates or outside events, but the president has the advantage.
by Charlie Cook
Updated: September 13, 2012 | 8:43 p.m.
September 13, 2012 | 3:00 p.m.
snip//
It should be emphasized again and again that this campaign isnt over and that the race is still awfully close. But without a change in the trajectory, its a good bet that Obama will come out on top. The questions are whether the opportunity will arise for that trajectory to change and whether the Romney campaign be able to effectively capitalize on it.
Looking at the math of the Senate a year and a half ago, Democrats were having to defend 23 seats and the GOP just 10. Democrats had seven open seats, compared with just two for Republicans; the arithmetic argued strongly that Republicans had a real shot at overturning the current 53-47 Democratic majority. At the time, it looked as if Republicans had at least a 60 percent, maybe even a 70 percent, chance of prevailing. Now, a 45 percent chance of a GOP majority is probably closer to the mark. Its not that a pro-Republican tide has waned, but that developments in individual states have hurt Republicans more than Democrats, changing the status from strong edge for the GOP to somewhat uphill.
There are at least two important, yet seemingly opposing, dynamics at work in the Senate races. The first is an intensifying polarization that is making many contests more competitive and closer than they were even a month ago. Partisans, and even those just leaning toward one party or the other, have come home very quickly. This is true in Florida and Ohio, where Republican challengers have closed the gap against Democratic incumbents. This increased polarization is working against the GOP in Hawaii and New Mexico, where the party has fielded especially talented candidates. These challengers gave Republicans reason for hope in two Democratic-tilting states, but as President Obama has solidified his standing there, early GOP optimism no longer seems warranted.
The second dynamic is that neither party appears to have the wind at its back. As a result, candidates and the quality of their campaigns matter more than they have in the last three elections. This explains why Democratic candidates in Indiana and North Dakota are more than holding their own, making those two races in Republican-leaning states more competitive than they ought to be. Republicans are also benefiting from this. In Massachusetts, GOP Sen. Scott Brown is statistically tied with Democrat Elizabeth Warren, despite the states strong Democratic tilt. And, in Connecticut, Republican Linda McMahon has a lead over Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy, largely because she has run the better race to date. Perhaps whatever bias voters may have had against McMahon during her ill-fated 2010 Senate campaign because of her background as a professional-wrestling executive is no longer as much of a liability.
These strong and even sometimes contradictory dynamics have created much more uncertainty in the Senate picture in the past month. Now, 15 seats10 held by Democrats and five by Republicanscan be called competitive. Ten or possibly 11 others can be considered legitimate toss-upssix or seven held by Democrats and four held by Republicans.
The House still seems to be a hard-fought but fairly evenly matched fight, with little chance of a major shift in either direction. If there is a significant turnover, it will have been triggered by something that hasnt happened yet.
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Charlie Cook: Obama’s a Good Bet (Original Post)
babylonsister
Sep 2012
OP
Vincardog
(20,234 posts)1. the Democratic party could win this running away if they would only
Campaign on and deliver real Liberal Populist Policies.