2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTrouble brewing for Bernie in New Hampshire: Independents are being drawn to the GOP primary
New Hampshire Independents May Control Fates of Trump and Sanders
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About 40 percent of the New Hampshire electorate is independent (officially called undeclared) a greater voter share than either party can boast and is allowed to participate in either primary.
And their choices could be decisive for two very different candidates, Donald J. Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders, who are counting on independent support to win the state.
Early indications suggest that independents are being drawn to the turbulent Republican race, where the large number of candidates can give these voters an outsize role in the outcome of the Feb. 9 primary and shape the contest beyond.
Janet Doyle, an undeclared voter from Portsmouth, said she usually votes Democratic. But she suggested a sort of civic duty this time to participate in the Republican primary instead.
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many voters see the Republican primary as more competitive and intend to take that partys ballot, according to recent interviews with two dozen independents.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/us/politics/independents-could-be-decisive-in-both-new-hampshire-primaries.html?_r=0
Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)
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Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)Suddenly the Democratic race will become a whole lot more interesting and compelling to participate in if he does. The media narrative is that only the Republican nomination fight is up for grabs. If Sanders wins Iowa that seeming certainty utterly dissolves.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)and conservative than Vermont, and it's not surprising that conservatives will pick up votes there. Even more so in the general when the GOP identifies one candidate to support. The Democratic Party needs Bernie to help carry New Hampshire in the general -- for the cause!
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)So Mr. Crossan may vote for Mr. Sanders, if only to make Mrs. Clinton sweat.
I dont want Bernie Sanders to be president, he said, but Ill vote for him anyway. "
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Saying that a candidate is being supported by party opponents who want the weaker general election candidate to win the primary.
And rarely is it true in any meaningful way.
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Ernesto
(5,077 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)Since your primary is so late.
sorechasm
(631 posts)The last anecdote is of a voter who may vote for Bernie out of spite. NH independents have a history of supporting emerging candidates (Obama, Carter). Bernie seems to fit that narrative. The Iowa primary may confirm it.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)There's been a few polls that have interviewed Independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary as opposed to the Republican primary that show him still in the lead even with reduced Independent turnout. Bernie is winning New Hampshire.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie needs those independents to have a chance at winning there.
FourScore
(9,704 posts)I am worried that I have seen this playbook before.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)comradebillyboy
(10,174 posts)both the NYT and Washington Post treated the Clintons like they were the Beverley Hillbillies, uppity people who rose above their rightful station in life. The Times has done several major hatchet jobs on Hillary this year that they had to retract, re-edit or apologize for. The WaPO has done at least 50 unfavorable Clinton email stories.
concreteblue
(626 posts)THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!
ROFLMAO....more SHrillary desperation.......
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)number of people.
" ... according to recent interviews with two dozen independents. "
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)How can he possibly lose
baldguy
(36,649 posts)ebayfool
(3,411 posts)"In 2008, the last time the state hosted two competitive primaries, about 530,000 ballots were cast, with about 197,000 of them coming from independents."
I read that the precision of your estimates is determined by the sample size and that an increased sample size will lead to more precise estimates. Or do I have that wrong?
Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)A sample that small can not be weighted in any statistically significant way.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They are simply noting a potential issue regarding independents switching votes. It could be a problem for Bernie.
Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)You are right that this is not a scientific poll, in fact it is a pretty much baseless article that relies entirely on anecdotal evidence. When someone claims it is a "weighted statistical sample" however I had to point out that you can not weight a sample this small with any statistical accuracy.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think it could have a impact on election day.
Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its just a discussion of of a potential issue which doesn't require statistical proof... imo.
BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)Hardly that.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
I have long believed that Bernie would be the likely winner in NH (I am a Hillary supporter). But the latest poll (from 20 Dec) is encouraging for Hillary there so perhaps I am wrong.
artislife
(9,497 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Sander will take NH. This is a silly article based on less than nothing.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)She's on radio talking about taking back the party Lincoln
Gothmog
(145,489 posts)There is no chance that Sanders will be the Democratic nominee even if he wins New Hampshire and Iowa (sanders is behind currently in Iowa and has a bad ground game in Iowa). Predictwise has sanders at 7% chance of being the nominee (which is up from 5%) but the GOP contest is far more competitive and interesting
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Launch a ton of very positive ads for Trump.
Once the conversion to Trump is complete, start appealing to Trump supporters for a reconversion.
But all of that must be done asap....he is running out of time.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Gloria
(17,663 posts)eom