Clinton Has 45-To-1 'Superdelegate' Advantage Over Sanders

[George II]

I came across this on NPR's site a while back - re: Superdelegates. It's a few weeks old (from November) but still an interesting read.

http://www.npr.org/2015/11/13/455812702/clinton-has-45-to-1-superdelegate-advantage-over-sanders

Clinton Has 45-To-1 'Superdelegate' Advantage Over Sanders

"Front-runner" can be a tenuous word. But when it comes to at least one group, Hillary Clinton is far and away the leader — the Democratic Party establishment.

There's no better measure of that establishment than unpledged party leaders and elected official delegates, better known as "superdelegates."

Among this group, Clinton leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 359 to 8, according to an AP survey of the group that will help elect the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in July. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has two people supporting him from this group.

AP was able to reach 80 percent of the 712 superdelegates; 210 delegates remain undecided.

It's true that Clinton also led in the superdelegate race in the 2008 presidential cycle and eventually lost to Barack Obama. But Clinton's support is far greater than what it was around this time in 2007.

Back then, AP found that 169 superdelegates were for Clinton; Obama had 63 of the 90 percent they contacted in December 2007. That's a nearly 3-to-1 advantage. Her lead this year is 45 to 1.

(more)

What is REALLY interesting is that they touch on the 2007/2008 primary campaign and point out the comparison between then and now. Kind of shatters the claim that "Sanders is ahead of where Obama was back in 2007".

[MeNMyVolt]

1. Looking good. K&R

[truedelphi]

2. I have been trying to point out to all of us who support Bernie that

There is so much corrupted protocol in the process that it is not at all about the popularity of a single person. Even if that person becomes overwhelmingly popular.

And of course, Obama got a free pass on much of this. (As does any Dem candidate with ties to Big Banking, Big Military, Big Ag, Big Pharma, etc.) Republican news station talking heads said that Obama was a special case, and that people should be nice to him.

Those same Talking Heads are eager to call Bernie a socialist or an elderly, out of touch egotist who cannot possibly win. If they mention him at all...

I hope that people close to the Bernie Sanders campaign become aware of this and that they successfully figure it out.

[George II]

7. The fact is that almost 200 of those Clinton Superdelegates are people he's worked with.....

....and will have to work with should he become President - 148 Democratic Representatives in Congress and 38 Democratic Senators.

If he hasn't been able to get along with them enough that even a few dozen of those 186 Congressional members how successful can his presidency be if he should happen to get the nomination and win the election?

[truedelphi]

28. Is it really the fact that these superdelegates "get along better" with Ms Clinton?

Or does it have to do with her money raising abilities, her power, her connections etc.

Plus her being the choice of the Big Banks, MIC, the Surveillance State, Big Ag, Big Insurers and Big Pharma?

Like I am saying, the system is corrupt.

Corrupt beyond belief.

[jfern]

3. And she has only a 4-3 lead in the latest poll

[George II]

8. She has a 4-3 lead in the latest poll? What poll is that?

[lovemydog]

11. The latest poll of seven people?

[Sheepshank]

15. Ok...that was funny. Nt

[jfern]

23. 53-39 here

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/12/28/trump-still-ahead-cruz-gains/

[thesquanderer]

4. OTOH, superdelegate votes are not set in stone

A superdelegate can say whatever they want, support whoever they want... but there is no obligation that goes along with it. They can privately (or publicly) change their minds as much as they want, nothing counts until the day of the convention when they cast their votes. If winds start blowing some other way, they can reconsider.

[Gore1FL]

5. It's no secret the DNC is in the tank for Clinton.

This really isn't news.

[uponit7771]

18. or people genuinely see Clinton as a good president

[Gore1FL]

20. Clinton has many supporters. That isn't in question. n/t

[Doctor_J]

6. The big shots of the party that's lost hundreds of legislative seats and governors mansions

over the last twenty years all want Hillary. I'm shocked! Shocked! Their appetite for self destruction is boundless. I guess two more electoral disasters in 2016 and 2018 are better than nominating an old white male.

[George II]

13. They're not all these mysterious "big shots" plotting in some back room. Almost 200 of them...

....are current Democratic Governors, Representatives, and Senators - people we've all (hopefully) worked to elect. Many others are lower level elected officials or previous office holders.

Here's an informative link explaining who the Superdelegates are and who they've committed to, if any.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016

Summary:

Dist. Party Leaders (20) Clinton 8, Sanders 0, O'Malley 0, Uncommitted 12
Governors (20) Clinton 12, Sanders 0, O'Malley 0, Uncommitted 8
Senators (47) Clinton 38, Sanders 0, O'Malley 0, Uncommitted 9
Representatives (193) Clinton 148, Sanders 2, O'Malley 1, Uncommitted 42
DNC Members (433) Clinton 124, Sanders 4, O'Malley 2, Uncommitted 302

[Doctor_J]

14. They are still part of the party establishment, which can generously be called a train wreck

considering the success they've had over the last generation. Insanity can be defined as doing the same thing and expecting different results. Once again the party big shots are going to nominate an establishment conservative, people who want (desperately) some much needed change of direction are going to be ignored and (as at du) insulted and called names, the young, casual and new voters will stay home, and another ass kicking will ensue. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[George II]

16. If that's the way it is, then why has Sanders chosen to run for President under their banner?

[uponit7771]

19. Crickets on this question................................................................... too.

It looks like Sanders never bothered to establish relationships with well known DNC constituents or leaders but expected a lot after dissing the party for years

[catnhatnh]

9. Hey-Bernie has 8 already???

seems like just a few weeks ago we were told he had none!

[Hiraeth]

21. update!

[NCTraveler]

10. Extremely impressive network.

Clinton has the political clout we need.

[Bjorn Against]

12. Hillary beat Obama in superdelegate endorsements as well...

When it came time for the convention however every last one of those superdelegates changed their vote to Obama. Superdelegates are well aware that if they go against the will of the voters it will cause major divisions within the party, the vast majority if not all of them will vote for the candidate that the voters chose regardless of who they endorsed before the primaries.

[George II]

17. Two things about that.....

....first, Obama wasn't behind by 330-7 at this point in the campaign. By December 2007 there were very few committed Superdelegates, unlike this year.

Second, more importantly, by the time the convention opened Hillary Clinton had conceded the nomination to Obama, so all Superdelegates were essentially released from their prior commitment.

[Bjorn Against]

22. Yes, when she conceded to Obama her superdelegates switched to him

Last edited Tue Dec 29, 2015, 01:21 AM - Edit history (1)

Whoever wins the primary will get all, or at least nearly all of the delegates as it is common practice for them to change their endorsement to the primary winner. Unless there is a brokered convention superdelegate votes are pretty much assured to go to the primary winner regardless of who was endorsed before the primaries.

And as to your first point, the margin of number endorsements do not matter. 100% of Hillary's superdelegates switched to Obama when he won the election and any superdelegate who does not want to split the party would do the same if Bernie won the primaries.

[PowerToThePeople]

24. Yet, she will still lose.

[Cha]

25. 45-1.. Keep up the good work, Hillary. Anyway, I thought SD didn't matter to some? So it's

really 45-0 in their case, right? lol

Mahalo George

[riversedge]

26. k and r.

[NurseJackie]

27. You're correct! Hillary's numbers look great! Bernie's ... not so much ...

... unless you're counting bumper stickers!