In wake of the wake of controversy, Bernie plummets 17% from his high 30 minutes ago

[Godhumor]

His chance to be nominee dropped from 6% back to 5%.

Still at 2% to be president, though.

http://predictwise.com/

And that is my last smart ass post on framing stories and numbers for the day.

Probably.

Definitely maybe.

Depending.

[enid602]

1. surge

Ah, yes. The long awaited 'surge.'

[Blue_Adept]

2. I've missed you

[img][/img]

[whatthehey]

3. Probably understated, but sanguine approaches are warranted

I'd like him to be both. I think he has more chance of being both than predictwise show. But not by a huge amount. Paddypower for example, based not on pundits and research but people who make their living being better than everybody else about probability, has him at 6/1 to get the nom, meaning they think it's slightly less likely than that to get the profit margin.


When predictwise starts offering cash 20/1 odds then I will a) believe they really have the courage of their convictions and b) risk a bit just in case the 7/1 or so chance comes up.

[Godhumor]

5. PredictWise is an aggregator not a market itself

Similar to Pollster and RCP. But they aggregate predictive markets where people really do bid real money on various events.

[whatthehey]

6. Then please tell me which are offering 20-1 on Sanders. I have real money waiting.

[comradebillyboy]

4. I'm not sure how predictwise works but it sure looks like

Marco Rubio's stock is falling fast. These kinds of models are a fun read but I'm not sure how well they correlate to reality, but they are likely more accurate than the average beltway pundit.