Emerson College poll: Clinton 65 - Sanders 26 - O'Malley 2

[brooklynite]

One candidate seems to be going up, and one seems to be going down.



http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b85d13974aeb4901bd68916b963cea3c.pdf

[JaneyVee]

1. Holy Christ. Do you have a link?

[brooklynite]

2. Apologies

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b85d13974aeb4901bd68916b963cea3c.pdf

[JaneyVee]

9. Nice. Taken partially post debate.

[Jarqui]

3. Once again, (at risk of sounding like a whiny broken record)

the demographics are even worse on this poll

42.6% are 65 or over on this poll (compared with 15-16% or so in the general election (in 2008 and 2012)
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b85d13974aeb4901bd68916b963cea3c.pdf

That's the age group where Clinton is strongest and Sanders weakest.

That's a dramatic skewing with demographics - to the extent, it's just plain silly. No wonder they're an outlier.

[mattvermont]

4. Beat me to it

I was about to point that out. What is the rational for such a spread?

[Jarqui]

5. I don't know

laziness? that's just how things turned out?

I have no idea. It's pretty much a useless poll it's so slanted (except for the majority of folks who don't look under the hood ...).

[JaneyVee]

11. Umm, because it accurately reflects voter turnout by age:

[Jarqui]

13. Um .. No

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Voter_demographics
42+% of those who voted in 2012 were not 65 plus - it was closer to 16%
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b85d13974aeb4901bd68916b963cea3c.pdf
(see question #18 asking age and it's responses)

[JaneyVee]

25. You realize you're basing that on 100% turnout.

30% of eligible voters voted in 2014, what is 16% of 30%? More than half.

[NuclearDem]

32. The two of you are measuring two different things.

The 16% figure represents the contribution of that age group to the total votes cast of all age groups in the election.

The other figure concerns a percent within that specific age group. 51% and 49% respective to gender of eligible voters within that age group voted.

That 51% and 49% of voters in that age group who actually voted made up 16% of the total vote.

[onenote]

33. I don't think that's a proper comparison

Imagine if the total universe of potential voters was 1000 and only 100 (10 percent) of them were over 65 and 900 (90 percent) were under 65. Then imagine that past turnout was 30 percent. If turnout was evenly distributed over all ages (i.e., 30 percent of those under 65 voted and 30 percent of those over 65 voted), a poll of 300 voters that had 270 participants under 65 (30 percent of 900) and 30 participants over 65 (30 percent of 100) would be an appropriate division, even though it would mean that, as reflected in the total population, 90 percent of those polled were under 65 and only 10 percent were over.

If turnout varied by age group, so that only 30 percent of the 900 under 65 voters in the example turned out (270) and 100 percent of the over 65's turned out (100), a poll of 300 people would be appropriately weighted if 81 of those participating (27 percent) were over 65 and 73 percent (219) were under 65.

While turnout is higher among the available population of over 65's, that group still makes up a significant minority of the voting age population and turn out among the over 65s is not 100 percent. There is no way that it makes sense for more than 40 percent of those polled to be over that age threshold.

[NorthCarolina]

22. Killjoy..

Just kidding....thanks for the synopsis.

[NurseJackie]

36. I think that's why reputable polling organizations will "weight" the answers ...

... depending on who's giving them. They're smart enough to know if they've "overpolled" a certain demographic, and "underpolled" another demographic, then they'll give the overpolled group less weight (depending on other historical data and actual distribution of the different groups within the population.)

Thus, the "margin of error" that you've heard so much about.

[Jarqui]

37. I've looked for that and maybe I've missed it

But I haven't seen it

When you're crossing a couple of tables or using one table to break out another, you would think something wouldn't add up because of that smoothing. But it always seems to - working with the lopsided demographics they provided.

[Sancho]

6. Let's summarize...

Hillary continues to gain endorsements at an all time record pace from members of Congress and Governors.

Hillary is wrapping up union support every which way.

Hillary is winning the debates by all neutral assessments.

Hillary is killing the polls, particularly in the Sunbelt leading up to Super Tuesday.

Bernie is struggling to keep control of his staff and campaign. Investigation ensuing.

O'Malley is in the dump.

The GOP has found someone crazier and dumber than Palin to nominate.

Maybe I should buy some bubbly?

[virtualobserver]

7. and no one shows up at her rallies....

[JaneyVee]

12. Probably because she only holds town halls.

[Sancho]

15. Those who show up at Hillary's town halls VOTE...

have you looked at the LV (likely voter) polls - those who are registered and vote in every elections and the ones that the Sanders campaign wants to steal? Have you looked at the committed super delegate count? Oh well, probably not.

Seriously in favor of Hillary. FL, NC, OH..that's the electoral votes.

Frankly, no one cares about HN since there are less voters in NH than in my county in FL.

Geraldine Ferraro had really big rallies!!! What happened to her? Who?

There are 40 ball games with 10 times more people than any candidate next weekend. Have fun at the rallies. Get excited at the rallies. Be a Hillary Hater if you want.

Just for fun:

Nevada:
CNN/ORC 10/3 - 10/10 253 LV 50 34 12 0 0 0 Clinton +16
Gravis Marketing 7/12 - 7/13 416 RV 55 18 5 1 1 0 Clinton +37

Massachusetts:
Boston Globe/Suffolk 11/19 - 11/22 241 LV 6.3 54 29 3 Clinton +25
Emerson College 10/16 - 10/18 265 LV 6.0 59 25 3 Clinton +34

Minnesota:
PPP (D) 7/30 - 8/2 426 RV 4.9 50 32 4 Clinton +18
Suffolk 4/24 - 4/28 100 LV 9.8 63 -- -- Clinton +48
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/20 373 RV 5.1 59 -- 1 Clinton +45

North Carolina:
PPP (D) 12/5 - 12/7 555 RV 4.2 60 21 10 Clinton +39
Elon University 10/29 - 11/2 514 RV 4.3 57 24 3 Clinton +33

Oklahoma:
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6 11/12 - 11/15 389 LV 5.1 47 12 2 Clinton +35
The Oklahoman 10/19 - 10/22 350 RV 5.4 30 21 1 Clinton +9

Louisiana:
WWL-TV/Clarus 9/20 - 9/23 57 22 7 2 1 0 Clinton +35

Michigan:
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell 9/18 - 9/18 538 LV 35 28 22 -- -- -- Clinton +7
MRG 9/9 - 9/14 600 LV 41 22 22 0 1 0 Clinton +19

Florida:
Florida Atlantic University 11/15 - 11/16 297 LV 5.6 66 22 4 Clinton +44
Bay News 9/News 13 10/28 - 11/1 922 LV -- 66 24 3 Clinton +42
UNF 10/14 - 10/19 632 RV 3.9 55 16 0 Clinton +39

Missouri:
PPP (D) 8/7 - 8/9 352 LV 5.2 53 25 5 5 1 Clinton +28

Ohio:
Quinnipiac 9/25 - 10/5 40 21 19 1 0 0 0 Clinton +19
Quinnipiac 8/7 - 8/18 47 14 17 -- 0 1 0 Clinton +30
Quinnipiac 6/4 - 6/15 60 13 10 -- 1 0 0 Clinton +47
PPP (D) 6/4 - 6/7 61 -- 13 -- 2 1 2 Clinton +48
Quinnipiac 3/17 - 3/28 54 9 3 -- 3 2 -- Clinton +40
Quinnipiac 1/22 - 2/1 51 7 5 -- 1 0 -- Clinton +37

[virtualobserver]

17. they won't show up at a rally, but they will answer their land line (right next to the chair)

can they vote from that chair?

[Sancho]

18. Yep...here in Florida we usually vote by mail...

and we all have a land line (for hurricanes and alarm systems, etc.). We all have caller ID too, so we know it's a poll calling.

[virtualobserver]

26. You Floridians are amazing

walking in lockstep

[Sancho]

28. yep..and there's a LOT of us...and we're voting for Hillary!

Lots of immigrants, lots of women, lots of union members, and lots of minority.

[virtualobserver]

29. well, I wish you the best, then

We have a primary and a caucus on the same day......so the mail won't work for me.

[brooklynite]

16. Tell us, how many questions does Sanders answer at his rallies?

Answer -- none.

I'm sure it's nice to rev up the fans you already have, but some people feel it's important to go out and convince people to vote for you.

[virtualobserver]

19. your post does not explain the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary

We know where Bernie has stood on issues for decades......Trying to figure out where Hillary stands is the big challenge for voters,
and trying to generate excitement within the voting population is Hillary's challenge.

[brooklynite]

20. My definition of enthusiasm is showing up to vote on Primary Day

Something other rally candidates didn't seem to achieve...

[virtualobserver]

23. since that is in the future, you have no evidence of excitement at all

we have the excitement of 2 million plus donors, huge crowds and the much maligned online polls.

you have polls indicating a lack of trustworthiness.

Thank god that you have Debbie Wasserman Schultz working for you, limiting the debates and picking
the worst possible dates for the meager number that she has scheduled.

[brooklynite]

24. Hillary Clinton has the excitement of 18 M Primary voters in 2008...as many as Barack Obama

I'll start with that.

[virtualobserver]

27. that 8 year old excitement seems to have worn off

[brooklynite]

34. In 2008, Clinton had about 45% of the vote...this time she has 55%+...

Pretty exciting.

[virtualobserver]

39. the polls are excited for Hillary

I am happy for them.

We shall see how the polls hold up.

[Iliyah]

8. Errrr, Palin has found her equal

Matter of fact the whole lot of them (GOP) are nuttier than hell.

[workinclasszero]

10. Woo-hoo!

Go Hillary!

[Alfresco]

14. Excellent!

Happy Holidays!

[coyote]

21. The poll is totally skewed

67.4% of the poll participants were over 50 years old. Again the millennial are totally underweighted. The demographics simply do not match past presidential elections. The poll is trash.

[NurseJackie]

38. pollsters know the demographics and they ...

... calculate the numbers appropriately. Over sampled demographics count less, under sampled demographics count more based on actual population demographics and voter turnout likelihood.

[ismnotwasm]

30. Whoa

Impressive indeed!

[HoneychildMooseMoss]

31. Hillary does not represent me, or my family

I don't even know where she actually stands, because she keeps changing her position.

Fuck that.

I want someone I can count on.

That's Bernie.

[seabeyond]

35. "Clinton 65 - Sanders 26 - O'Malley 2" No way. Not possible. Really? Kickin' ass. !! Nt.

[Alfresco]

40. That spanking has got to burn.

Happy Holidays!