Dec 17 CBS/YouGov IOWA Poll Clinton 50 same; Sanders 45 +1; RCP Ave Hillary +14.9

[riversedge]

I have compared this months poll to last months (apples to apples). essentially unchanged in this Iowa poll.


All polls average Hillary still ahead by 15 pts (rounded)




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls
RCP Average 12/4 - 12/17 -- -- 51.7 36.8 5.0 Clinton +14.9
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 459 LV 8.6 50 45 4 Clinton +5

CBS News/YouGov 11/15 - 11/19 602 LV 7.6 50 44 5 Clinton +6

[Iliyah]

1. K & R

[JaneyVee]

2. So the CBS poll hasn't budged in a month? Seems suspect.

PPP had a poll taken 2 days before this CBS poll with HRC at +18. I guess time will tell.

[riversedge]

7. I posted this because there was another thread making

it seems as though Bernie had made a big jump in Iowa. It said something about--pulling within 5 pts of Hillary. making a big jump. So I went back and did some research on this specific poll and compared apples to apples and found that CBS/youGov had not budged. I like to compare the same polls.

[Alfresco]

3. Thanks for the clarification.

Happy Holidays!

[SunSeeker]

4. K & R

[CoffeeCat]

5. The Iowa Poll, which was released last week...

...had Sanders within 9; now this CBS poll has Sanders within 5.

Clearly, the Iowa voters are falling in line for Sanders.

I live in Iowa and every caucus season this happens. The polls begin to solidify when the caucus date draws near. You can spot general trends, the closer you get to the caucus date, as Iowans make their final candidate choices.

The momentum seems to have shifted to Sanders.

I could not be more thrilled.

The Iowa Poll is considered the most accurate poll in the state of Iowa. Ann Selzer's methodology is sterling and captures Iowa voter trends with incredibly accuracy. Again, Nate Silver gave The Iowa Poll an A+ rating. Out of 300 polling firms, Sliver only rated three firms with an A+.

Clinton's rally attendances numbers are an indicator as well. Her numbers are lackluster. Sander's event numbers are impressive. We've still got 6 weeks to go. This should be very interesting.

Clinton
200 attendees--"Fighting for Us" Town Hall in Ft. Dodge, Iowa (12/4) Source: ABC News
350 attendees--"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Waterloo, Iowa (12/9) Source: Waterloo Courier
250 attendees_"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Urbandale Iowa (12/9) Source: Radio Iowa

Sanders
2000 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Dubuque, Iowa (12/12) Overflow crowd Source: Radio Iowa
1500 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Waterloo, Iowa (12/12) Standing-room only. Source: Waterloo Courier
1125 attendees--Sanders Town Hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa (12/13)
--

[riversedge]

8. You are comparing apples to oranges again for both

instances. It is best to compare the same polls (as I did in the OP; one month apart). Try looking back to see what the Iowa poll was the last time it was done--you will have much more reliable assessment.

Also comparing Town Halls (purpose is to have questions and answers session--which she always does for interaction) with big rallies.

[CoffeeCat]

9. I'm just reporting the facts

Latest polls:
Iowa Poll--Clinton by 9
CBS--Clinton by 5

Pretty straightforward numbers. Exciting for Bernie.

I purposely compared The Town Hall attendance numbers.

Clinton held these events at sites that could accommodate larger audiences. She doesn't have enough showing up to warrant that. I live in Iowa and I'm familiar with the Waterloo convention center where she had her Town Hall. She isn't able to fill the space. Bernie has his town halls at high school and college gymnasiums and auditoriums, and they've had to call in maintenance to create more space. They often turn people away.

There's video of her Ft Dodge crowd, which was barely 200, and you can see rows of empty seats. She's not filling the space.

[riversedge]

10. Whatever.

[okasha]

6. Oh, avg. Hillary

I thought for a minute we were praying.. .

I think we'll get a bump from last night.

[Alfresco]

11. Yup, she's still winning.

Happy Holidays

[riversedge]

12. Yes, and folks are out canvassing for her this past weekend....

Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Brexton Isaacs ?@BrextonIsaacs 17h17 hours ago

Canvassing for @HillaryforIA with @annie_kehler! Coralville is excited to #iacaucus for @HillaryClinton! #ImWithHer



Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Richard Ahne ?@richard_ahne15 17h17 hours ago

#HRCanvass w/ our Cantril Precinct Cpt .@zachamburg = 5 more caucus-goers 4 .@HillaryClinton ! #HillYes




HILLARY WILL BE IN KEOTA TUESDAY DEC 22

Hillary for Iowa ?@HillaryforIA 17h17 hours ago

They asked Hillary to come to Keota—and on Tuesday, she is! RSVP now to attend the event ? http://hrc.io/1m2k4S6

[Blue_Adept]

13. Ugh, my head hurts

[img][/img]

[riversedge]

14. Take some time out for just little stuff for a big cause....

Dana Schneider ?@1danaschneider 7h7 hours ago

A very special holiday season has begun here at @HillaryforIA. Join us for crafts and cheer tonight!!

:large




Anna Menzel ?@annamenzel Jul 1

Learned Iris Paper folding at the Toledo public library - made our own! #FellowsIA #craftingforHillary
Embedded image permalink




Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Casey Clemmons ?@Casey_Clemmons 6h6 hours ago

How a quilt brought together a community (and a former & future president) ⇨ http://hrc.io/1OjW9Kc by @gretacarnes