Post-Debate Polling Prediction - My Take

[MineralMan]

No net change in upcoming polling trends from this debate. A 2:1 advantage, more or less, for Hillary Clinton will continue in national polling. The debate won't change things much at all.

However, the Datagate incident may cost Sanders a percentage point or two this week. That will remain within the margin of error for just about every poll. It did happen and it was wrong. Bernie's apology and Clinton's acceptance of that apology, along with the suspension of a couple more Sanders staffers will keep the incident from having more impact.

Sanders supporters will continue to believe that the DNC is promoting Clinton, and Clinton supporters won't be changing their opinions over this. I just don't see much effect, really.

The New Hampshire poll will remain statistically tied, and Clinton will maintain her current polling lead in Iowa over the next week.

Will my predictions be correct? We shall see, but that's my take from this debate and the week's news.

[cantbeserious]

1. Still Using Polls As A Cudgel - One Never Changes Their Stripes

eom

[MineralMan]

2. A cudgel? It's a prediction, not an order.

Perhaps you don't agree with the prediction? Then you can make one of your own. This one's mine. I don't care how you vote in the primary election or caucus in your state. You get one vote, the same as I do.

But, thanks very much for kicking my prediction thread. I appreciate that.

[cantbeserious]

4. An Opinion With The Effect Of An Order - As If The Universe Agrees With Ones Opinion

And no other outcome is feasible.

Has one stopped to consider that the polls can be as rigged as the electronic voting machines to reflect the will of the Oligarchs, Corporations and Banks.

By repeatedly reinforcing the notion that the polls are correct, one is doing the bidding of said same Oligarchs, Corporations and Banks.

They thank you for your blind service and devotion to their cause of further enslaving the 99%.

[MineralMan]

8. How could I possibly order anyone to do anything?

Anyone can ignore my opinion in a moment.

I do hope you'll take the time to show up and vote, though. Everyone owes it to himself or herself to do that. There will be only two possible winners on the general election ballot. It's a binary choice. Make a choice, please.

[cantbeserious]

13. By Doing The Bidding Of The Oligarchs, Corporation And Banks Some Are Reinforcing The Implicit Order

That overshadows America today.

The Oligarchs, Corporations and Banks thank all for their devotion and free service to the cause of the 1%.

[MineralMan]

17. Here's the deal: I don't do anyone's bidding.

I watch what's happening and attempt to predict things sometimes. You don't know me. If you did, you wouldn't say such silly things.

[cantbeserious]

19. Yes One Does - How - One Still Believes That The Polls Are True - Wake Up - Stopping Serving The

System that is owned and controlled by the Oligarchs, Corporations and Banks.

George Carlin said it well oh so many years ago.

[MineralMan]

21. Oh, I'm so done with this subthread...

Seeya in some other thread.

[cantbeserious]

22. Back With One Sometime Soon To Have The Same Conversation All Over Again

eom

[brooklynite]

23. Okay - you don't believe the polls...how is Sanders actually doing?

10 points ahead? 10 points behind?

[cantbeserious]

24. We Won't Know Until The Fat Lady Sings - Hence The Ridiculus Nature Of Using Polls As A Cudgel

eom

[brooklynite]

31. I see -- so it was a waste of money for Sanders to hire a pollster?

[cantbeserious]

32. Internal Polling And Publicly Distributed Polling Are Not The Same

eom

[Dem2]

5. "Polls As A Cudgel"

What an interesting concept.

[MineralMan]

9. Maybe it was a misspelling. I could use a pole as a cudgel,

if it were a short one, but polls are sort of non-physical things. It's hard to pummel someone over the head with one.

[treestar]

26. I think it has to do with facts getting in the way of a dream world

thus they seem like a weapon in that they destroy the dream scenario.

[MoonRiver]

6. Bernie going down a couple of points could cost him New Hampshire.

Just saying.

[MineralMan]

11. The polling in NH is always confusing.

That's an election I won't be able to predict, at least not this early. Not that it's a deciding factor in the primary race, anyhow, of course.

[riversedge]

12. I think Sanders apology helped somewhat. It would have helped him more if he had

offered it up without being prompted by the moderator. IMHO

[MineralMan]

15. At this point, there aren't that many undecided primary voters

in the early states. Shifting most people now won't be easy. Bernie's apology did ease the minds of some Sanders supporters who might have been considering a switch.

[riversedge]

18. yes, and that perhaps a reason why the needle will not change much as you

say in your OP.

[madfloridian]

14. The timing of the whole thing was just in tune with the debate.

Don't you think?

[MineralMan]

16. I can't imagine that it was intentional in any way.

What I think happened is that some Sanders staffers weren't thinking with their whole brains. They seized an opportunity when it occurred and got caught with their fingers in the pie. I'm 99% certain that Sanders had zero knowledge of what was happening, and I'm betting he's really pissed off at those staffers right now.

The incident forced him to make an apology to his main opponent in public and during the debate. No candidate wants to be in that position. Further, there's no advantage for Hillary to expose her data research to an opponent. Why would she do that? I'm not seeing that as a possibility.

Dumbass error on the part of some more or less politically unsophisticated data geeks on the Sanders staff. Perhaps a costly error, in the end, although I expect the whole thing to blow over. The media's focused on the clown car's antics.

[MoonRiver]

20. Not sure what you mean by timing,

[Kentonio]

7. The debates won't move the needle

But DWS openly coming out as biased might well do the trick. It was a stupid, foolish mistake and one that hurts the party.

[sufrommich]

10. I agree with your assessment. nt

[Bjorn Against]

25. I think Bernie is going to get a bump

I don't think the debate itself will make much of a difference, I thought Bernie did great but the other candidates were on their game as well so I don't expect many minds to be changed by the debate.

I do think Bernie will get a bump as a result of the DNC's handling of the data issue. This issue could have been a problem for Bernie if the DNC had not been so heavy handed and biased in their response, but by blatantly violating Bernie's contract with the DNC and shutting off access to his own data she really screwed up and people are pissed. I think Debbie Wasserman-Schultz just unintentionally sent some voters Bernie's way.

[MineralMan]

27. And I think you're overestimating how much people

actually think about such news stories. The number of people who bother to look more closely than the headlines is too small to materially affect the polling, frankly. Besides, most of them are already strongly committed to one or the other candidate.

Most people who are polled are not tightly focused on the details of campaigns. Most have no idea who DWS even is. That's the truth of polling, and that polling accurately reflects the electorate, who also don't read that closely.

In many ways, the vast majority of voters are low-information voters. They're more likely to be affected more by things none of us think matter. I'm sad to say that, but it is the case, from what I've observed for the past 50 years.

[Bjorn Against]

28. This story really blew up on social media

I think a lot of people do know about this story because of the strong reaction it got on social media, and the social media reaction was overwhelmingly against the DNC's handling of the situation.

[MineralMan]

29. Social media will not decide any presidential election.

The percentages of voters who follow political issues on social media are just too small for it to have a major impact.

It's confirmation bias, I think, that gives more importance to such things than is warranted.

[Bjorn Against]

30. I think you are very wrong about that

Damn near everyone is on social media these days and it is the primary source of information for tens of millions of Americans.

Social media is already a huge factor in elections and its influence is only going to grow.

[MineralMan]

33. OK.