2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:17 PM Dec 2015

I'm making an Iowa/NH prediction right now, and it won't change before actual voting takes place

IF Bernie wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire.

IF Clinton wins Iowa, she wins New Hampshire.

The first two states will not split between candidates.

Reason is simple. Sanders and Hillary are running very close in New Hampshire while Clinton has a solid if small lead in Iowa. Since the majority of NH voters don't make up their mind until after the Iowa caucus this sets the stage for a sweep of the first two states.

If Bernie overcomes Clinton's lead in Iowa, then he will not have any trouble taking NH. If Clinton wins in Iowa, then the undecided NH voters will break enough her way to take that state.

So let's get this party started, on to Iowa!

7 replies

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I'm making an Iowa/NH prediction right now, and it won't change before actual voting takes place (Original Post) Godhumor Dec 2015 OP

I don't live in IA. I am told if the weather upaloopa Dec 2015 #1

What makes this year different from '08? firebrand80 Dec 2015 #2

Fewer candidates Renew Deal Dec 2015 #4

NH is a big question mark because of independent voting Renew Deal Dec 2015 #3

They may split kenfrequed Dec 2015 #5

They chose different candidates in 2008 Nonhlanhla Dec 2015 #6

Different race and time. And why I'm calling it a prediction Godhumor Dec 2015 #7

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)

1. I don't live in IA. I am told if the weather

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:25 PM

Dec 2015

is bad that some people won't show up on a week night and hang around for hours.

Bernie has more support among people under 45. Hillary has more support among seniors and people over 45. Also Hillary has the fact that she would be the first woman president.

Since young people are the least likely to vote and women are on Hillary's side and older people tend to show up to vote, if the weather is poor my money would be on a Hillary.

But my money is already on Hillary so it I think she will win IA.

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)

2. What makes this year different from '08?

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:27 PM

Dec 2015

Renew Deal

(81,866 posts)

4. Fewer candidates

Reply to firebrand80 (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:32 PM

Dec 2015

Renew Deal

(81,866 posts)

3. NH is a big question mark because of independent voting

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:32 PM

Dec 2015

They have to chose a primary. It's not 100% clear what the electorate will look like in NH.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)

5. They may split

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:37 PM

Dec 2015

I support Bernie but I think Iowa is going to be a lot closer than it currently looks. I do not know who will win.

I don't think that is going to automatically change New Hampshire though. These two states are very proud of their role in elections. Though it is worth noting that the last several presidential cycles they have picked the same candidate.

Nonhlanhla

(2,074 posts)

6. They chose different candidates in 2008

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:41 PM

Dec 2015

In 2008, Obama won Iowa, and Hilary won New Hampshire.

If memory serves.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

7. Different race and time. And why I'm calling it a prediction

Reply to Nonhlanhla (Reply #6)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 03:19 PM

Dec 2015

I don't think this time around it is shaping up for a split.

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