Bernie is winning in all 50 states!

[upaloopa]

http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/12/29/how-accurate-are-online-polls/
How accurate are online polls?

most online polls that use participants who volunteer to take part do not have a proven record of accuracy. There are at least two reasons for this. One is that not everyone in the U.S. uses the internet, and those who do not are demographically different from the rest of the public. Another reason is that people who volunteer for polls may be different from other people in ways that could make the poll unrepresentative. At worst, online polls can be seriously biased if people who hold a particular point of view are more motivated to participate than those with a different point of view.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_access_poll

An open access poll is a type of opinion poll in which a nonprobability sample of participants self-select into participation. The term includes call-in, mail-in, and some online polls.

Since participants in an open access poll are volunteers rather than a random sample, such polls represent the most interested individuals, just as in voting. In the case of political polls, such participants might be more likely voters.

Because no sampling frame is used to draw the sample of participants, open access polls may not have participants that represent the larger population. Indeed, they may be composed simply of individuals who happen to hear about the poll. As a consequence, the results of the poll cannot be generalized, but are only representative of the participants of the poll.


http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm

Answers To Questions We
Often Hear From the Public

NATIONAL COUNCIL ON PUBLIC POLLS


1. Why am I or my friends never included in political polls conducted for the media?

The reason is fairly simple. There are about 200 million adult or voting-age Americans. But the average poll has a sample size of 1,000 adults. This means that only one person in 200,000 will be included in any one national or state poll. To put it another way, it would take 200,000 polls with samples of 1,000 for pollsters to get around to all Americans -- and this assumes no one is called twice.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/polling-divergence-phone-versus-online-and-established-versus-new/

Polling divergence – phone versus online and established versus new

Rather than being random probability samples, online polls are statistical models based on non-random samples, which attempt to estimate for the population by adjusting for known biases. The problem arises where there are biases that are unknown (or difficult to quantify). If, for instance, members of an online panel happen to be more politically engaged than the average voter, or – more seriously – if party activists deliberately infiltrate a panel in an attempt to manipulate its results, then ceteris paribus a systematic bias arises.

[Tote Life]

1. The revolution will not be televised.

It'll be tweeted, Instagrammed, Facebooked and Snapchatted.

Now you were saying?

[Blue_Adept]

4. The dilution of the word revolution continues to be unfortunate

Not the polite and orderly election process. Even as disturbing as this one gets, it's still a simple transition of power with little in the way truly changing.

Revolution has a much stronger, truer, meaning than what's being bandied about.

[upaloopa]

9. Keyboard warriors will never bring about a revolution.

Here is your problem. You care about you. You'll never come out from behind your keyboard. All real activists that brought about real change risked their well-being even their lives for others.

Look at the civil rights movement. People then wanted to bring on lasting change for those who came after them. Civil rights activists were murdered for trying to register people to vote. Leaders of congregations were lynched for preaching about freedom.

You on the other hand sit at a keyboard and raise on-line holy hell that nobody reads or benefits from.

[frazzled]

11. A keyboard revolution will have the shelf life (and impact) of ...

a viral cat video. Real life happens in real life. Step away from your phone.

[Sheepshank]

14. that isn't a "revolution" by any stretch of the imagination

at the very least, getting out from behind electronic devices would help.

[Agnosticsherbet]

2. Freeping - stacking poll results by directing people to a web poll;

Urban Dictionary

Freeping - stacking poll results by directing people to a web poll; with the goal of intentionally biasing the results to support their particular point of vie.w

"Attention all believers in the sanctity of baby peas. There is a poll on a babypeasaredelicious.com. Go there and vote that every baby pea is sacred and should be saved, even those that are frozen and will never be planted in the ground"

[NCTraveler]

3. I was a little taken back....

By the aggressive argument made by some that a fifty state win was a possibility for Sanders. It's great having so many new people in the process. At the same time it often shows in their arguments.

[NurseJackie]

5. People needn't be rocket scientists to understand this ...

... it's clear and intuitive. I'm of the belief that more of Bernie's fans understand (and secretly believe) that are willing to publicly admit. I'm equally convinced that Bernie's fans are not stupid. Instead, they recognize whatever value there may be in the appearance of unbridled optimism (however unrealistic it may be) and in putting on a happy face in order to keep the rank-and-file followers motivated.

If, for instance, members of an online panel happen to be more politically engaged than the average voter, or – more seriously – if party activists deliberately infiltrate a panel in an attempt to manipulate its results, then ceteris paribus a systematic bias arises.

"Gray skies are gonna clear up, put on a happy face!"

[upaloopa]

6. "I'm equally convinced that Bernie's fans are not stupid."

I try very hard to agree with that statement but I have in internal conflict going on about it.

[NurseJackie]

8. LOL!!

I know what you mean. It was difficult to type. But, in my defense, I was trying to be more than fair.

[sufrommich]

7. I think some are already coming up with

their conspiratorial reasons for why Sanders didn't win too. There's no other reason for some of this stuff.

[randr]

10. Most polls are conducted by sampling most likely to vote people

Get it?

[upaloopa]

12. No I don't get it. I can't understand you

[randr]

13. Polling companies rely on past voting records to build their phone calling lists

This leaves out those who do not have a land line phone, as cell #'s are rarely used, those who have not voted in the last few elections, those who may have moved, and those who have never voted. This narrows the sample down to a predictable field and generally can be manipulated, by selective zip codes, to generate the results that would satisfy whomever is paying for the poll in the first place.
Our system of checks used to rely on exit polling in order to gather additional data to correlate with latest polling results. Polling companies would look at the difference of pre-election polls with the exits and if they were withing a few points this would validate the process.
As many of us recall, during the first Bush election; the one the SCOTUS decided, somehow the exit polling data got corrupted and was tossed out as unreliable. I have heard of no process that has attempted to repair this over few elections and do not recall anyone using exit polling for any reason other than to predict individual precinct outcomes.

[Cha]

15. uh no