Brand-New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Within Striking Distance of Hillary Clinton in Iowa

[Stellar]

Please read more at the link: YahooNews

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton enjoys a clear but far from insurmountable lead in Iowa over Democratic primary challenger Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), according to a brand-new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll.

The poll showed Clinton with 48% support ahead of Iowa's Feb. 1 caucus, with Sanders at 39% and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley at 4%. That's little changed from an October poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers, in which Bloomberg and the Register found Clinton at 48%, Sanders at 41% and O'Malley at 2%.

Behind the numbers: While the results suggest Clinton is holding her own in the kickoff caucus state, the latest poll shows her with a smaller lead over Sanders than other recent Hawkeye State surveys. A Fox News poll released Sunday gave Clinton a 50% to 36% lead, and last week also saw Clinton post leads of 22 percentage points and 18 percentage points in polls from Monmouth and CNN, respectively.

The Bloomberg/Register survey, conducted by pollster Ann Selzer, is regarded as among the most accurate in the state. Statistics guru Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight awarded Selzer's firm a rare A+ rating in its ranking of polling firms last year.

[AngryParakeet]

1. You could read it that way

Im going to read it that Hillary increased her margin against Sanders.

[Thinkingabout]

2. Agreed.

[Stellar]

3. That's cool too. nt

[NurseJackie]

19. +1

[upaloopa]

4. So when she wins IA what will news be

"Sanders comes in a close second!"

[CoffeeCat]

5. Sanders can definitely win Iowa...

A nine-point lead is easily eroded in the Iowa caucus season, especially if you have a candidate who garners enthusiasm and has the right message. Sanders clearly has both of those things.

I look forward to the last few weeks of the caucuses, when Iowans really plug in, attend rallies and start engaging and making their final decisions.

Ann Selzer has a long and storied history of accurate polling and nearly prescient analysis of Iowa political dynamics. She says often that anything can happen in the last few weeks.

Bernie can do this.

So happy to see these numbers!!!

[VanillaRhapsody]

8. He better start worrying about NH!

[CoffeeCat]

11. He's ahead in most NH polls...

...and if he wins the first two states--that equals a paradigm shift.

No more "inevitability" for Hillary.

No more, "But look at the polls!"

No more, "It's over for Bernie."

Furthermore, it will prove once again, that all of the polls, endorsements and games--are no match for "We The People."

[Juicy_Bellows]

14. Oh I so hope so!

It will be a paradigm shift and it will be great for the country. The media just might have to mention Sanders as a real contender and not marginalize his campaign at every turn.

Meanwhile, back here at DU, we will see a spin cycle that will make Maytag envious.

[brooklynite]

6. Brand-New Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Within Striking Distance of Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/primary2016_demprimary120915.pdf

Apparently when Sanders is ahead by 10 points it's a sign that he's surging (even though he's lost the consistent lead he had all summer) but when Clinton is ahead by 10 points it's...a sign that he's surging.

[cosmicone]

20. It is called the Sanders' Paradigm

Water is dry, ice is warm and salt is sweet.

In the land of unicorns, ponies and pixie dust, anything is possible.

[tex-wyo-dem]

22. Hillary fans spin, Bernie fans spin...

Whatever.

I find it remarkable, however, that even with Hillary's name recognition, with all her money and endorsements, teevee ads she's been running far in advance of Bernie putting up any ads, with all her exposure on the "news" networks, Bernie is still more than holding his own in Iowa and NH.

This does not bode well for the enevitable one.

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. Sanders is going to win NH and IOWA. n/t

[CoffeeCat]

12. I think it's a very strong possibility now...

I think NH is in the bag, and I think it's very tight in Iowa.

The final weeks of the Iowa caucus season are going to be a roller coaster ride on steroids. Gird your loins everyone.

I had been waiting for a long time for that Iowa poll. Selzer's methodology is unimpeachable.

From 4 percent in Iowa--to within nine points. And the peak of the caucus season is just around the corner.

Bring it!!

[in_cog_ni_to]

9. Kick! n/t

[Thor_MN]

10. So if Sanders gets every single uncommitted point, that's 9%, moving him into a tie.

Pretty tall order, and considering that the data shows that he has lost 3% in 2 months, it's hard to justify the headline.

Great for him if he can do it, but the data still shows he is not there yet.

[CoffeeCat]

13. You're assuming that Clinton's support can't be picked off...

36 percent of the Hillary supporters in Selzer's poll reported that they could change their mind and vote for another candidate, Sanders or O'Malley.

If Sanders runs the incredible campaign that I think he will--in the final weeks of the Iowa campaign season, then he could pick off some of her support, and get the majority of Independents who will cross over and caucus for the Democrats. As well he could get some uncommitted voters--but that demographic will dwindle even future in the next four weeks.

You also have to remember that if O'Malley is still at 4 percent on the day of the caucus, that his supporters will arrive to their precincts to caucus and discover that O'Malley is not "viable." That means, that he won't have a large enough percentage of supporters (in each precinct) to earn one delegate. Those O'Malley supporters will have to join another candidate group; or sit out the election. It's rare that a person sits out.

So, that's four percent right there. I think it's obvious that O'Malley people would gravitate more toward Bernie. Hillary's been campaigning since the day Obama was inaugurated. If they want O'Malley, they most likely want a more liberal candidate or they don't like Hillary.

[okasha]

15. So far, most DU O'Malley supporters

who have switched have gone to Hillary. That seems likely to be the case IRL.

[CoffeeCat]

17. Actually, I heard just the opposite...

...from people who are phone banking in Iowa. I also found the same thing when I called 100 Iowa likely caucus-goers.

Most O'Malley supporters are choosing Sanders as their second choice by a 2-1 margin.

Hillary has been running for President since 2007. Everyone knows who she is. If they're picking someone other than Hillary, it's likely that they want a more liberal candidate.

I'm sure some on DU have gone to her, but a few posters on a message board...how much does that really tell you?

[Fawke Em]

16. It's also assuming there aren't going to be new voters.

Trust me - there will be.

[CoffeeCat]

18. And Sanders polls 20 points ahead of Hillary in Iowa with new voters...

...according to Ann Selzer and her stellar Iowa Poll numbers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2015-11-13/it-s-not-over-for-bernie-sanders-in-iowa-ann-selzer

[brooklynite]

21. Obama never picked off Clinton's supporters...I'm thinking Sanders won't be able to either

Consider...if you're a Clinton supporter at this point, you're aware of all her "baggage" and are sticking with her, or you know something about Sanders that doesn't appeal to you. Slim pickings.

[Thor_MN]

23. No, the poll is saying that it has stayed the same, while Sanders has declined.

You go ahead and spin things however you want, but unless things change, Sanders needs everything to fall his way.

[reformist2]

24. When they start to talking at the Iowa caucuses, Hillry supporters won't have a leg to stand on.

[book_worm]

25. Hillary has increased her lead in the DM Register Poll from 5 to 9 points

since the last poll. So Sanders isn't striking as close as he was the last time.