2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNBC/WSJ Poll: Sanders closes on Clinton, Clinton would beat Trump but lose to Rubio, Carson
http://tinyurl.com/jadnr45Sanders closes 12 pts on Clinton over the last poll by NBC/WSJ going from Clinton +31 to Clinton +19
Clinton would beat Trump by 10 pts and Cruz by 3 pts in this poll but lose to Rubio by 3 pts and to Carson by 1 pt.
When one goes down to the state level against GOP contenders, it seems to get worse for Clinton and better for Sanders.
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)...is the Dem nomination. The thought a Prez Robio or Carson is frightening.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)In this poll and a few others, he's within single digits so he's roughly in striking range but he's got to close the gap.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)karynnj
(59,504 posts)in Iowa? It would seem that at the rate he is polling, unless it is very concentrated in a few areas, his supporters will be under the 15% that seemed to be needed in the 2004 and 2008 contests. (Again - I only watched this on CSPAN - so if wrong, I hope Iowans will correct.) If two things are true -- that those for O'Malley first rejected the obvious choice thus they might be, in large %, anybody but Clinton AND his polling numbers are sufficiently under 15% - so in all or most caucus sites, his people need to go to their second choice , could these numbers be better for Bernie than they are on the surface.
Also, if the likely caucus participant status was weighted to give more weight to people who said they are going AND went in the past, could that underweight the young? If they simply use what people say, could that OVERWEIGHT young people if they really are less likely to show up?