2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders Will Become President
The American political establishment is trying desperately to shift public opinion towards the belief that voters will elect a person they don't trust and don't like. It's not a conspiracy, however, it's simply the same dynamics that allowed Enron to seduce financial markets before its epic collapse. BusinessWeek wrote a glowing cover story on Enron in February of 2001, stating "Enron's success has not gone unnoticed, but it has a few advantages that competitors would be hard pressed to match." Ten months after this glowing review of Enron's prominence within the energy field, it went bankrupt.
The same dynamics are at play with Hillary Clinton and poll numbers, as well as Clinton's "inevitability." Conventional logic is often rooted in a herd mentality, wrapped in a cloak of groupthink, and justified by doublespeak. It's the reason that television gravitates away from honest individuals and towards anyone who will sell commercials. According to a Philly.com article by Will Bunch, More Americans support Bernie than The Donald -- but he gets 1/23 the TV coverage.
To certain people, Hillary Clinton is definitely going to win, simply because of poll numbers. However, people forget that in December of 2007, Gallup reported Clinton Maintains Large Lead Over Obama Nationally. Of course, in American society today, looking back only eight years is ancient history.
This apathetic acquiescence on the part of some voters exists, even though non-traditional metrics (Tumblr has become "a giant Bernie Sanders campaign rally" show Bernie Sanders the clear favorite among a wide range Democrats, Independents, and even some Republicans.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-become-president_b_8780730.html
merrily
(45,251 posts)First, Democratic Party very heavy hitters (Reid, Kennedy, Kerry, Pelosi, Daschle, et al.) were behind Obama, not Hillary. The opposite is true of Sanders this time.
Media was behind Obama in the primary-from 2004, in fact, if not sooner. As soon as Obama finished his keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention of 2004, those covering that convention started declaring him Presidential material. (The keynote slot itself is usually indicative of the thinking at the time of party's heavy hitters.) The opposite of all that is true of Sanders this time.
The 2008 debate schedule favored the lesser known candidates last time. To say the least, the opposite is true this time.
Obama had not restricted his sources of funds last time and had a very nice fund, so much so that he had a replica of Air Force One custom made for his primary "whistlestopping." Sanders has been operating on a shoestring.
Hillary has had 7 more years since 2008 to circle the wagons.
It's not so much the tautology that Sanders 2016 is not Obama 2008 as it that Sanders does not have the benefit of things that helped Obama. And then, there is the fact that Obama was also very personally appealing to the Democratic base.
I do not say this to discourage Sanders supporters. I say it because being in reality is almost always more useful than being out of reality. I say it also to underscore the need to work for the Sanders campaign IRL and to donate to it.
Never be complacent and never give up.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... worthy of acknowledgement.
merrily
(45,251 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Are the primaries over? Should we just crown Bernie the nominee without a vote? There are other candidates in the race.
Excellent!
Gothmog
(145,481 posts)Thanks for the laughs
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Who is a Rand Paul acolyte SMH
I'm a Liberal Democrat. I'm Voting for Rand Paul in 2016. Here Is Why.
H. A. Goodman
Columnist published in The Cleveland Plain Dealer, The Baltimore Sun, The Hill, Salon, The Jerusalem Post
Posted: 11/17/2014 3:31 am EST Updated: 01/17/2015 5:59 am EST
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/im-a-liberal-democrat-im_b_6169542.html
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Very interesting.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)by this Rand lover.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)riversedge
(70,270 posts)so so so many fall for Baghdad Goodman!
reformist2
(9,841 posts)The nature of the caucus is to gather in groups to support a particular candidate, before actually voting. When casual Hillary fans see the enthusiasm and hear the arguments of the Bernie supporters, I can't help but think a good chunk of them will shift sides during the caucus.... I can see now why Obama won so many of them in 2008, the same dynamic must have been going on!
And then New Hampshire primary, which Bernie is already predicted to win, will confirm the Bernie juggernaut.
newfie11
(8,159 posts)shenmue
(38,506 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)There are so many factors that play into who wins the caucuses. However, the good news is that the traditional trappings (the MSM, negative campaigning, force and hollow media memes about who is inevitable) tend to fall flat with Iowans.
The people of Iowa want candidates to earn their votes. They're politically plugged in and they don't like bullshit. I think we Iowans are humbled by our first-in-the-nation status (I know I am) and we just want to do a good job of vetting the candidates. We don't want to let the country down by being uninformed and picking the wrong candidates (the Iowa Republicans, on the other hand, are moonbats who always pick the wrong candidate).
We've seen it all--believe me. We don't like the media telling us for whom to vote. We hate negative campaigning. We're on a mission, attempting to do due diligence, and when we sense baloney, it's irritating.
It is not unusual for Iowans to attend several political rallies. Many people make sure they connect with all candidates running. And they like to talk with them and ask them questions. Obama was the master at this type of drilled-down, personal campaigning.
Also, Iowa Democrats have a very strong progressive contingent. I would say the majority of Iowa Democrats lean or are very progressive. They tend to vote in high numbers and they want a progressive candidate. This is why Obama won in 2008, and Hillary came in third. She is definitely feed as more conservative and viewed as the establishment candidate.
It all comes down to this--Who can get their supporters out to caucus. Who has the most motivated supporters? Who has the most enthusiasm.
I think it will be close. There are centrist Iowa Dems who will caucus for Hillary, for sure. There are many who may buy into her "inevitability" and "electability" memes. However, Sanders supporters seem to be more enthusiastic and motivated. Many see his run as the last hope for our nation. Although I think Clinton has all of the establishment trappings on her side, I think she lacks organically grown enthusiasm. That's a big negative to carry into the Iowa caucuses.
I think it could go either way.
That's why canvassing, phone banking and getting your friends and neighbors to the caucuses is so important. Anyone who can, should come to Iowa and help out.
randome
(34,845 posts)And Ed Snowden is welcomed home as a conquering hero.
And Julian Assange wins the Nobel Peace prize.
And the NSA is disbanded and turns out the lights.
And dogs will build our supercomputers.
And pigs will turn on their captors.
And pots of gold will be found under every rainbow.
Any. Day. Now.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"[/center][/font][hr]
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)MineralMan
(146,324 posts)Yes, indeed.
"H. A. Goodman Speaks and the World Listens" -H. A. Goodman, 2016
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)Hillary is not. Her 'inevitability' and DNC BS is the bulk of what is keeping her going.