Brand Spanking New CNN Iowa Poll -HRC 54% SBS% 36% MOM 4%
The gender gap between Clinton and Sanders has narrowed in the last month, with both men and women breaking significantly in the former secretary of state's favor (51% Clinton to 40% Sanders among men, 57% Clinton to 34% Sanders among women; last month it was 48% Clinton to 44% Sanders among men and 62% Clinton to 31% Sanders among women).
Clinton's edge on handling economic issues is smaller in Iowa than it is nationally, 47% in Iowa say they think Clinton would do the best job handling the economy while 42% say they trust Sanders most, while our recent national poll found Clinton holding a 58% to 31% advantage on the same issue. Likewise, Iowa's likely caucusgoers are more likely to think that Sanders would do the most to help the middle class (50%) than to say Clinton would (43%), a question that split national Democrats almost evenly (47% Clinton to 44% Sanders).
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-iowa-poll/index.html
= new reply since forum marked as read
When one visits HuffPo, this is what we see
As you can see, your numbes (HRC 49 vs. Sanders' 40.8) are not the numbers given by HuffPo.
YUP! 
the sound of that
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First thing to notice is that the under 50 crowd has N/A listed for their results. So you'd think we can't figure out their totals, but it's actually blatently easy. If you look at the top of the poll, the Democratic likely caucus goers is 442 and the total has a margin of error of +/-4.5%. The formula 0.95/sqrt(442) works out for this. Using that we can see how many are in the 50 and older crowd. With +/-5.5% it comes out to ~298. 298/442 = 67.4% of the total.
The problem is that in Iowa in 2012 the over 50 crowd only counted for 54% of the voting totals. CNN's own exit polling from 2012 verifies this. As you can see by comparing the totals column to the 50 and older column, Bernie pickes up substantially with the sub 50 crowd. Hillary does better the older the crowd gets.
They also list margin of errors breakdowns for the 50-64 crowd (+/-8.0%, ~140 people, 31.6% polled) and 65+ crowd (+/-7.5%, ~160 people, 36.1% polled). That puts the 50-64 crowd 12.8% higher sampling then they should be, and the 65+ crowd (Hillary's best group) at 38% higher sampling than they should be vs 2012 exit polling. All this means that the under 50 crowd (Where Bernie does best) is being undersampled by 41% (~144 ppeople, 32.6% here. Should be 46% according to 2012 exit polling)
This means that either CNN thinks the youth turnout is going to drop like a rock from 2012, or they're blowing smoke up our asses with the sampling.
Hillary currently has a lead in Iowa. It's not as high as the poll results say it is.
