Romney on Cusp of Defeat

[babylonsister]

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/9/6/124158/5943

Romney on Cusp of Defeat

by BooMan
Thu Sep 6th, 2012 at 12:41:58 PM EST


After I saw it reported that Romney and his associated Super PACs are pulling out of Michigan and Pennsylvania, I had to go look up when McCain gave up on Michigan in 2008. I remembered the decision because responded by going deeply off-message.

Palin told Fox News' Carl Cameron that she disagreed with the McCain campaign's decision to pull its advertising and staffers out of Michigan, effectively ceding the state to Barack Obama.

"I fired off a quick email and said, 'Oh, come on. You know, do we have to? Do we have to call it there?'" Palin said.

The date that article was published? October 3, 2008.

So, Romney is conceding Michigan a full month earlier than McCain conceded it. Is that a sign that I am right that this election will not be closer than the 2008 election? I think it could be.

It should be remembered that McCain was financially strapped in a way that Romney and his billionaire backers simply are not. Romney (and Karl Rove and the Koch Brothers) has much more money to throw around. He can afford to waste it on long shots. McCain could not.

As for Pennsylvania, McCain never gave up because he couldn't have possibly won the election without carrying the Keystone State.

By pulling out of Pennsylvania and Michigan so early, Romney has lost any margin of error. He can only win now by the narrowest of margins. He is literally on the cusp of defeat.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. I don't buy it. It sounds to good to be true. Why not continue dumping money in order

to force the Obama campaign to keep spending there? Also that money might be going to finance ground operations for their army of morons.

[CreekDog]

20. the problem with ramping back up is that ad slots are finite

if they give up airtime, they could be blocked out of it later because it gets snapped up by others.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

24. Ah good point. I hadn't thought of that. nt

[AlinPA]

2. There is plenty of money available to the Romney campaign -many hundreds of millions from right-wing

billionaires, so this break in spending is curious to me.

[thelordofhell]

4. Unless they're Lying About Their Money Too

[AlinPA]

10. Adelson has $26 Billion in wealth. He could easily give $1 billion (< 5%) and flood the Romney

campaign with cash and do some real damage in MI, PA, OH, NC, FL. $200 Million in each state would be a real problem for us. So I am curious why they are stopping spending at this point.

[BlueStreak]

16. Not lying, but let's get real here

About 98% of that money comes from about 20 billionaires. These guys didn't get to be billionaires by wasting a lot of money. Go back and look at articles that talk about the vast amount of money "in" the Super-PACs. The articles usually use words like "pledged" and "promised". These billionaires are not in the business of writing blank checks. They are only willing to write those checks:

a) when there is a good chance of electing their guy; and

b) when their guy gets elected, he will be able to take actions that repay the billionaires many times over.

As soon as they think they might be backing a loser, you will hear a sonic boom caused by those checkbooks slapping closed so fast.

We are probably very near that point now.

[russspeakeasy]

18. Well said, thanks.

[CreekDog]

23. if they know "their guy" is going to lose, they sometimes don't won't to poke the guy who'll win

for obvious reasons.

but i have no idea. it is interesting news though.

[BlueStreak]

27. Right, and do they really want to keep dumping BS ads into the Michigan market, considering ...

that Debbie Stabenow is going to win that Senate seat. Why take the chances of getting her really pissed off? If you are somebody like Sheldon Adelson, this might be a time to go into hiding.

[renate]

26. interesting point, and very reassuring

Thanks! I forget that these guys aren't true believers except in getting a big return for their investments.

[K Gardner]

30. Thanks to you and others in this thread for 'splainin' this.. it is a bit

curious, so the possible explanations are welcomed.

[BlueStreak]

37. It is starting to look like the "Hail Mary" play -- in the middle of the third quarter !?

He does have a path to 270 without PA, MI or WI. But that just leaves no margin for error at all. His path is:

Win all 4 big ones: FL, NC, VA, and OH

plus win one of the other 4: NV, CO, IA or NH

If you see Ryan or Romney doing major non-fund-raising events in any states besides those 8, then the calculus has changed. But really, you don't start running the "Hail Mary" play in the 3rd quarter. If they really pull out from MI and WI for more than a few days, it may be impossible to get those states back into play "in the 4th quarter" so to speak.

And regarding Virginia, the odds against Romney just got a little steeper with Virgil Goode getting on the ballot.
http://www.collegiatetimes.com/stories/20223/virgil-goode-wins-place-on-virginia-presidential-ballot

[Avalux]

3. More fun to come with the debates! Not getting cocky, but this COULD be a wave election.

Let's see where we are a month from now.

[a geek named Bob]

8. I hereby promise before God

If Obama beats Rmoney (the corporation that wear a suit, and walks like a man)...

I will:
1.) Teach 100 children Critical Thinking skills
2.) Build something that slows down (at least locally) Global Warming
3.) Get my community to go sustainable local power

[LongTomH]

25. Good pledge for us all!

I'm thinking about where I can volunteer after this election. Right now, I'm working phonebanks and voter registration to get Mr. Obama and other democrats elected.

And no, I don't plan to slack off my efforts. This election isn't 'in the bag' yet!

[SoapBox]

5. I must agree...I'm suspious of their actions.

Don't get lax for one second Dems...don't be lulled. The Bagger Brothers and KKKarl Turd Blossom have
millions and billions to work with.

and, "Romney on Cusp of Defeat"...we can always hope!

[sofa king]

21. Romney's expertise is in removing decisions from the people.

When McCain defeated Romney in the primaries in '08, Romney didn't hone his message or try to improve his image. He gamed the next primary process so that he would be the inevitable winner.

When Ron Paul's people inserted themselves into the process and planned dissent and disruption at the convention, Romney didn't negotiate with them or give them a chance to speak. He rammed through a rule change that disenfranchised the Paul delegates, and silenced them that way.

So hell yes, I also am suspicious of Romney's actions. You don't walk into an election saying "I'm gonna fuck ya," and then doubling down on that plan by choosing an even worse running mate.

Not without a plan to take the decision away from the people.

So, how are the Republicans going to do that?

There is always an alternative explanation, which might be that Romney's donors have decided that throwing good money after bad at this point is a poor plan, and they are winding things down in an effort to cut their losses.

But some or all of them are too evil not to expect them to try to protect their investment, rather than concede its total failure at this early date. That is what frightens me the most right now.

[lillypaddle]

6. Awwww

couldn't happen to a "nicer" guy.

[JRLeft]

7. If they cannot win the Presidency they will work to get both houses to prevent any progress a con

can take over the White House and both houses.

[gkhouston]

31. That's what I'm expecting: that money will be redirected into House and Senate races. n/t

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. I love you, babylonsister, but not too fast...

Because the Romney camp has raised untold millions in campaign funds, they may be pulling back only temporarily and employing a rope-a-dope strategy where they release an onslaught of negative ads during the last few days of the campaign.

They also may be reserving some of those funds for a massive ground game assault.

Whatever the strategy is, I hope I'm wrong. I hope that they really don't see much hope in MI and PA at least.

[babylonsister]

14. Hey, I'm just the messenger...

I think it's too early also to make such predictions, just throwing it out there...

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. I hear ya! I hope this is true and that he really does see no hope there.

[Sugarcoated]

22. We have a wicked smart campaign team

who just might be thinking this is a possibility, too.

[demwing]

11. What do candidates do with left over campaign funds?

What do PACs do with left over campaign funds?

Has it ever occurred to anyone that maybe the reason Romney has always wanted to run for President is because it allows him an opportunity for a great transfer or wealth from the bottom up?

I know there are restrictions on what can be done with funds, but Romney is an expert at moving money away from regulators.

For instance, is he allowed to loan his campaign personal funds with an interest rate attached?

[SunSeeker]

12. Don't let your guard down. It's a trap.

[Andy823]

13. Yes Romney has a lot of money

And it could be they will come back later with a fresh set of "lies" to put on the air, but it also may be that even with the big money backers, those with the brains have figured out Romney doesn't stand a chance in those states, so they are shirting their money other places and "hope" it will help.

Then again it could be that all the money is being sent to states where they think they can win house and senate seats because they also know that Romney doesn't stand a chance of winning the WH. The big money knows that the best way to keep their money, stop regulations, etc. is to keep control of congress. No matter who is in the WH, congress can either help push the presidents agenda, or as republicans have done since day one of the Obama administration, PREVENT anything from getting done!

[BlueStreak]

17. Yes, exactly

And if I were one of those billionaires and I saw Romney farting around on vacation this week instead of out there working his ass off to get me elected -- er I mean get himself elected, I would be asking him when I can expect his to put some of his own money on the table.

These billionaires didn't get to be billionaires by being chumps. And right about now, they are looking like chumps to me.

[russspeakeasy]

19. I must admit, I "guffawed" at your headline.

Sincerly, Mitch.

[Ira]

28. When the Super Pac and Rove funds are redirected to the senate races,

it is over for Romney.

[quaker bill]

29. Mitt "has" lots of money

And here is how he runs out. These rich funders are really not into wasting money. The moment they have a clear sense that they are throwing money at a losing effort, the money evaporates. Some of it may get shifted to House and Senate races, but the bulk stays home. The moment they think Rmoney will not win, they will start reserving funds for 2014 and 2016. Pulling funds from PA and WI this early is a first sign they think they are backing a loser. There is no profit in backing a loser.

[cecilfirefox]

32. Can I get a mainstreem media link to this ad pullout?? nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

33. I downplay "we won already" threads, but you make some important observations.

.

Don't forget the House and Senate and other tickets. Even "won" states have a role in who ultimately gets approved as Supreme Court Justice.

.

[Aerows]

34. Romney has a better chance

In New Hampshire than he does in Pennsylvania or Michigan, according to Nate Silver at 538. Even Real Clear Politics says he's pretty much doomed in both states.

[pwb]

35. Nobody buys their smiles and lies, Rove might still try.

He is an old fool. I never really saw any so called genius in anything he has ever said or did. Go away Karl, your opinion means very little to anyone with a brain.

[polichick]

36. Could mean they've figured out some new ways to steal the election.

[CRH]

38. Most likely scenario is after Clinton, ...

destroying all their talking points and making their adds useless, they are probably just regrouping and making new adds to be debunked. How effective is any add known by most independent voters to be false. They are not after their base, or the democratic base, the adds are designed to influence swing voters.

They are probably filming new lies as we speak.

If they are already conceding Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and have limited adds in Ohio, the presidential contest is over, only the house, senate and state governor remain to be undecided.

In these states look to see if more ads are suddenly placed on congressional races.

[davidpdx]

39. The way I read it is it is just the superpacs, not the Romney campaign

I think at some point they are going to have to pull resources out of PA and MI when they margins in the polls start opening up. That may be a few weeks down the road.

[jimlup]

40. And Likewise (after the coast is clear) we can thus shift our resources as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey Michigan!

GO BLUE!