How Bernie Sanders Will BERN Through Clinton's Southern Firewall

[Autumn]

What an interesting article from KOS. Disclaimer, I never read there but I followed a link and found this. Well worth the read

https://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/6/1457352/-How-Bernie-Sanders-Will-BERN-Through-Clinton-s-Southern-Firewall

Bernie Sanders is fairly well positioned to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, so much of Clinton’s hopes to bury him early rests on the southern-heavy Super Tuesday states. The strategy did not work in 2008 against Obama, and Bernie has potential to replicate that comeback in 2016

8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. It’s why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Don’t Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didn’t overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.

In October 2007, Clinton had an “insurmountable” 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.

Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernie’s support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.

[marym625]

1. Great article!

I recommended it on DKos this morning.

Thank you for sharing it.

#Bernie2016 #FeelTheBern

[Autumn]

2. I haven't read anything from there in years until today.

Some of the writing there seems to have improved.

[marym625]

7. Some is great!

Some, not so much. Just like here.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

51. Somewhat yes... gonna be fun to watch! Go Bernie!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[Live and Learn]

3. K&R nt

[99th_Monkey]

4. Bernie’s support among PoC doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16%

This^

[Autumn]

5. I may have to figure out a way to keep track of this persons writing.

He's awesome.

[marym625]

8. On Daily Kos, you can follow people

Makes it very convenient. There's another great site you can do that.

[Autumn]

12. I can't being myself to sign up at Kos. But another site where you can follow people

sounds intriguing.

[marym625]

13. it is intriguing

[thucythucy]

6. Glad to see this.

It sounds like it all hangs on Iowa and New Hampshire, especially Iowa.

Despite polls, pundits, and prognostics, it ain't over till the ballots are counted.

[marym625]

9. ALL the ballots

Unlike since 2000.

#NoBlackBoxVoting

#ReinstateVRA

#EndCrossCheckPurge

[thucythucy]

10. Absolutely!

[MisterP]

11. I'd add the Gulf's constant soaking by the oil companies, the miners' abandonment

by King Coal (which lets their own bosses blame Obama's "war on coal&quot , outsourcing, a younger generation providing fresh blood to the Black mediascape, and VW's brand-new union as good "ins"

this is all opposed to the "I'm the black/white/green candidate" campaign: Clinton DOES figure that she'll win the South, not even because she's leading among African-Americans there but because *there's no Black guy running like there was last time*

[Autumn]

14. Young people are paying attention and the more they hear the better Bernie does.

DWS must be very nervous.

[MisterP]

15. to DWS voters are poker chips to be won, gathered, and cashed in

Rahm-style politics cheers higher white suicide rates in front of one audience and cheers "tough on crime" in front of another

Sanders-style politics tries to fix the damn problems

[merrily]

16. If you want things to change, put your money where Sanders' mouth is.

https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/duforbernie

[Autumn]

17. Always a great reminder merrily

[merrily]

25. Thanks! I know it cheers me up.

[abelenkpe]

18. Lifelong VA republican friends

Are liking Sanders over all other candidates. Found out over holiday and was quite surprised.
Of course my tea party parents hate him but they're so brainwashed by 24/7 Fox News and Rush Limbaugh craziness that that was expected

[Autumn]

19. I have some republican friends an family that are for Bernie too.

The Fox watchers are hot for Trump.

[SmittynMo]

23. There's no fix for stupid.

[merrily]

26. But...free public college tuition could help!

[Autumn]

30. That would go a long way to cutting out the stoopid

[Martin Eden]

29. Sorry to hear about your parents

I'm fortunate in that regard. Both mine were lefties, growing up during the Great Depression.

They both worked, so I was raised to some extent by my elderly aunt who was involved in the labor movement from the mid-1920's until the mid-50's.

[abelenkpe]

71. It is a bummer but oddly enough my mom used to be a democrat

and her mother and father were huge lefties. Big fans of FDR. I spent lots of time with my grandmother growing up

It's FOX news. Seriously. It has turned my mother into a crazy winger. Wish I could just shut off the feed to their house...

[Martin Eden]

72. I think some older folks who were used to newsmen like Walter Cronkite ...

... just can't accept that a major news network would be deliberately deceiving them with false propaganda.

Yes, I know many of those same folks believe "liberal" news progarms are doing exactly that, but part of the pathology of being brainwashed by Fox is the ability to engage in Orwellian double-think.

[Nitram]

45. Just curious, Abe.

did your lifelong Repub friends like Ron Paul?

[abelenkpe]

70. No, not at all.

My tea bagger parents did. But no no no. These guys and gals are generation x-ers and more moderate conservatives. They're socially liberal, hate bigotry and attacks on planned parenthood, etc but consider themselves fiscally conservative. Always vote for republicans though. Annoyingly. My parents...the fox news addicts? Definitely unreasonable types. Best to avoid politics with them altogether

[Nitram]

73. My parents are the same, to my undying shame.

I asked about Ron Paul because I was surprised how many of his bumper stickers I saw around here (Albemarle County) two elections ago. But you're right, judging by the vehicles they were mostly rednecks. Although I think some might have been moderate republicans who saw him as a better alternative. I just wondered if there is any overlap between Paul voters and Bernie voters.

[daleanime]

20. K&R.....

[reformist2]

21. Wow. That article is enough to set the most complacent Clintonista's hair on fire!

[Autumn]

22. Isn't this a lovely OP...

and thread?

[Helen Borg]

69. BOOOM! You know what this is?

The sound of Bernie smashing Clinton's firewall!

[SCantiGOP]

24. Delusional

O'Malley actually has more high profile endorsements in SC than Sanders, but both are in single digits among state elected officials. Latest polls are showing Clinton with more than a 2:1 lead. Minority Whip Congressman Jim Clyburn is leading the charge, as are all 3 Dem ex-Governors.
I'd say he has a long way to burn.

[HubertHeaver]

42. It is a looong fuse.

[Alfresco]

27. Enter The Magical Mystery Chamber

[MohRokTah]

28. .

[think]

36. .

?1449393053

[Betty Karlson]

41. I'm appalled by the amount of "no proposal" in Clinton's column.

That's a lot of status quo she intends to uphold.

[George II]

64. I'm appalled that the person who put that together left out her proposals.

[Betty Karlson]

65. And you can fill in the gaps of that graphic?

We'd sure appreciate the specified correction.

[George II]

66. You can find them here: https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/

[Betty Karlson]

67. Which is probaby where the graphics guy couldn't find them?

The candidate's website is pretty much the first stop when researching such matters, right?

[George II]

68. Well I guess you should take that up with him.

[Segami]

31. Kick...

ps- love your BERN caps..........

[Autumn]

33. I wish I could take credit

for the BERN I got a kick out of that too.

[blackspade]

32. This is definitely shaping up to be an interesting race.

Clinton does not have the race won by any stretch.

[Enthusiast]

34. Kicked and recommended!

[Thinkingabout]

35. I would not be counting on Sanders winning in the South.

[Fawke Em]

38. Well, I'm in Tennessee and see far more enthusiasm for him than her. eom

[Thinkingabout]

39. I am in Texas and have close connections to other southern states and the opinions are

Following the polls.

[Dawgs]

46. Then your contacts are wrong.

I live in Atlanta and Bernie is a LOT MORE POPULAR among those that give a shit than Hillary.

[Thinkingabout]

47. Then you ignore polls.

[Dawgs]

52. Wait..I thought you said it was "close connections".

Now it's polls?

[Thinkingabout]

53. Yes I have close connections and it is not Sanders, the polls also say he will not be taking

states. The election day will show I am correct.

[Dawgs]

54. My bad. I should have never engaged. n/t

[redstateblues]

55. I'm in TN-Bernie will get crushed here

The only candidate that has generated any enthusiasm here unfortunately is Trump. I've seen 1 Hillary bumper sticker and 0 for bernie

[Fawke Em]

37. I follow this person on Twitter.

If you're on Twitter, he goes by the same name: @novenator

[Autumn]

62. I'm going to have to sign up. I want more of what he has to say.

[Betty Karlson]

40. Thanks for the link - and the good news. eom

[JDPriestly]

43. The South votes pretty much Republican in presidential elections.

Not much we can do about that. Whether Bernie or Hillary gets more votes in South Carolina, South Carolina needs to show that it can be won for a Democrat. So far????? for 2016.

Same for Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc.

Meanwhile, the wishes of our pretty solidly blue California and states that are the deciders like Ohio and Florida should be our first concern.

States that mostly vote Republican should not influence our choice of candidate that much. Sorry to say that. And we should campaign hard in them once we have our candidate. But they swing our party so far to the right that we are hardly a Democratic Party any more.

Let's pick the candidate that represents real Democrats and speaks to the issues that are important to Democrats. That's the way we can draw conservatives to our side. We won't draw conservatives by trying to out-conservative them.

Let's be Democrats and draw the conservatives to us by speaking to the issues and ideas that we value and that will help them.

Let the Republican states pick their Republican candidate.

I support Bernie's campaigning in Southern states, but I don't want those states pulling us to the conservative right.

[Autumn]

63. i agree with that so much

The republican states prefer republicans so let them have what they want. No more R's wearing that magic D.

Let's pick the candidate that represents real Democrats and speaks to the issues that are important to Democrats. That's the way we can draw conservatives to our side. We won't draw conservatives by trying to out-conservative them.

Let's be Democrats and draw the conservatives to us by speaking to the issues and ideas that we value and that will help them.

Let the Republican states pick their Republican candidate.

I support Bernie's campaigning in Southern states, but I don't want those states pulling us to the conservative right.

That's it right there I wish I could recommend that a hundred times

[Uncle Joe]

44. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Autumn.

[Autumn]

59. You're welcome Uncle Joe. I loved the enthusiasm in the article.

You just don't see that for some candidates.

[WillyT]

48. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Autumn]

61. Thanks Willy.

I'm going to keep an eye on that poster

[MaggieD]

49. Some reality

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/261551-clinton-seeks-to-solidify-african-american-support

"More than 70 percent of the states with contests through Super Tuesday on March 1 have a Democratic primary electorate of at least 20 percent nonwhite voters, according to analysis by The University of Virginia Center for Politics’s Geoffrey Skelley.

“If you think about South Carolina and Nevada, the reason why we chose those states was to ensure these candidates didn’t wait late in the game to reach out [to minority voters],” said Donna Brazile, vice chairwoman of voter registration and participation at the Democratic National Committee (DNC), referring to the third and fourth states to hold presidential nominating contests. As a DNC official, Brazile does not endorse a candidate.

Polling outside of early primary states isn’t as consistent, but repeated surveys from South Carolina show Sanders in a deep hole.

Clinton held a 54-point lead in the state and a 71-point lead with black voters in a mid-November Public Policy Polling survey, as well as an overwhelming 85 percent favorability rating among black voters. By comparison, black voters’ positive and negative views on Sanders are split at an even 32 percent, with 36 percent unsure. "

[George II]

50. He'd better get himself a bunch of matches, QUICKLY! Here's where the South stands so far:

South Carolina: Clinton 73, Sanders 22 Clinton +51
Texas: Clinton 61, Sanders 10 Clinton +51
Florida: Clinton 57, Sanders 22 Clinton +35
North Carolina: Clinton 58, Sanders 30 Clinton +28

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-races

[comradebillyboy]

57. These polls are all skewed don't ya know

only on-line polls are statistically valid in the wonderland that is 'Democratic' Underground. /s

[Gamecock Lefty]

58. Let's see . . .

Bernie's going to win the South because of 2008? Note - 2008 is seven years ago. You Bernistas do know that - right?

[book_worm]

60. At best I think they split Iowa and NH

I don't get why winning NH would be considered a big deal for Sanders. In 1972 Maine Senator Edmund Muskie won the NH primary over George McGovern by 9-points, but the media declared McGovern the winner. Why? Because Muskie was from a neighboring NH state and was well known there. The same could be said for Bernie as well, but the media has it in for Clinton so they will proclaim a Sanders win, however small, as a big victory for him. But I guess we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

[wyldwolf]

74. kick for fun