NH polls . Hillary 44%, BS 42%, MOM 8%

[Historic NY]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-still-leads-in-nh-but-christie-rising-clintonsanders-closely-matched.html

[Buzz Clik]

1. In his own back yard? Ouch, ouch, OUCH!

[upaloopa]

2. He peaked no where to expand his base

Some of his base are moving away from him.
It isn't any kind of movement or revolution.

Those things take time and commitment.

One question I have is this. True Bernie has been saying the same things for 40 years but why hasn't he built a following before this?

It isn't that Bernie is leading a revolution

It is that he is the convenient face to put up front at this time. Before it was Warren
Before her I don't know who but this is a group of people who on their own couldn't break out of a wet paper sack.

Just look at the OP's on this board. They are either whining about being treated unfairly or they are right wing lies about Hillary.

There just isn't any there there

[Buzz Clik]

3. +1

dittos all the way down.

[MADem]

29. Very little positivity, big picture.

"Because Fuck This Shit" is really not a campaign slogan. It's alienating to anyone who isn't a teen or young, edgy type. It's just not a very 'adult' turn of phrase.

And let's face it, his "economic plan" is crap. "Please give me your money so I can redistribute it" is not a plan--it's a pipe dream. Yeah, Congress is going to jump on that train, not.

A laundry list of what's wrong is not a plan, either.

More to the point, shit's happening in the world. Serious shit. Do we want a former VT mayor who has been a back bencher and pretty much invisible the entire time he has been on the Hill, or do we want a sharp, savvy Secretary of State fleeting up to national leadership with a spouse who is both an advisor and an asset with no learning curve from Day One? There's just no better package.

And then, there's that GUN THING. He's just not firing on all cylinders on that score. Clinton is.

That's on top of all the bad optics with regard to minority concerns and Planned Parenthood. He "prioritizes" some things, and those aren't at the top of his list.

[JaneyVee]

7. Oof.

[workinclasszero]

4. Wow

Hillary leads among the people that know Bernie the best.

That speaks volumes right there eh? Guess Bernie's neighbors aren't feelin the bern

[Cha]

26. And the people in Congress that work with bernie and know him are endorsing Hillary.

[Jarqui]

5. I call a little BS on the poll

PPP, the firm Clinton's PAC contracted for the debate poll, is using some pretty fishy demographics

Hillary is favored by older voters. The older they get, the more they favor her. Bernie is favored by younger voters

In NH over 65 voters favor Hillary 55-35. In the other two age groups, Bernie wins

Here are the exit polls for 2008
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

Here's PPP's poll
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_120315.pdf

PPP has 23% of those they surveyed over 65

2008 New Hampshire Exit polls have only 13% 65 OR older (more than PPP's sample of over 65 because the 13% exit poll includes those aged 65). Both 2008 and 2012 general elections had 16% aged 65 or older for the country. So 23% for over 65 is over the top (makes me wonder if PPP's thumb is on the scale)

If the demographics were closer to reality Bernie would have won this poll.

[Betty Karlson]

8. As usual, the coronation committee resorts to cooking the statistics. eom

[Buzz Clik]

10. Call it whatever, reality is that Bernie and HRC are separated by less than the margin of error.

Not good.

If Bernie can't rally soon, he'll be gone before the end of February.

[CajunBlazer]

6. Old folks vote, young folks - not so much.

[Betty Karlson]

9. Beating that dead horse again? Young people vote when you give them something to vote for.

Obama had a landslide in 2008 because of the youth vote.

[CajunBlazer]

13. Note: Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama (n/t)

[Betty Karlson]

19. Indeed: Sanders didn't jump back on the fence where LGBT rights are concerned. n/t

[CajunBlazer]

23. Bernie didn't do a lot of things - that's why he has no achievements to speak of

He is a cranky old loner in the Senate and for that reason he gets almost nothing done. Google what even his Democratic Senate colleagues say about him - He would would talk a real good game, but as President he could get nothing on his agenda done.

"Politics is the art of the possible." Bernie would always demand the impossible and then refuse to negotiate. Bernie is the equivalent of Ted Cruz on the liberal side.

[Betty Karlson]

24. That comparison with Cruz is offensive on so many levels.

I think your hatred of Sanders is pathetic. Pejorative words are no arguments: they are a sign of weakness.

[CajunBlazer]

35. I don't hate Sanders, I like Sanders

And I would vote for him if he wins the nomination. But that doesn't keep me from observing that Bernie's propensity to compromise is on par with his fellow Senator, Cruz. There are other similarities, but if I went into them it would just make you mad.

[Betty Karlson]

36. Sanders has worked across the aisle on many occasions.

He's amazingly good at finding common ground. I guess it's the Independent in him.

[CajunBlazer]

37. oh really? So I guess we expect major accomplisments - what are they?

Please name a few of the biggest ones.

[Betty Karlson]

39. One good thing is the minimum wage.

Sanders is going for the full 15, rather than conceding most of the increase before the negotiations even starts, like Clinton does (with her meager 12 dollar proposal).

I don't know that Sanders is going to get the full 15, but he'll likely achieve at least 12, which is what Clinton will never achieve if SHE has to negotiate with the GOP, and starts out with a proposal for 12.

[CajunBlazer]

40. That's a wish, not an accomplishment.

[Betty Karlson]

41. You asked what to expect. Did you ask about his record?

You can't have it both ways: either we are talking about what he has achieved in office so far, or we are talking about what we expect him to achieve once in the White House.

[CajunBlazer]

42. No, I asked what did Bernie Sanders accomplish in his 25 year Congressional carreer

Here is the actual text of my post:

oOh really? So I guess we expect major accomplisments - what are they?

Please name a few of the biggest ones.

[Betty Karlson]

43. Expectations refer to future accomplishments.

Accomplishments that have already been made do not need to be expected. They can be demonstrated.

English is not my first language, but I speak it well enough to know that expectations do not refer to the past. Just as memories don't refer to the future.

Please consider this my last response in this discussion.

[CajunBlazer]

44. Hopefully you understand enough English to understand this:

It is perfectly obvious that you can not name any accomplishments which Bernie Sanders recorded during his long 25 year career in Congress. But that's okay, because he hasn't done anything noteworthy.

That is a sad commentary on his ability to get anything done as President. Why should we believe in Bernie's promises if he hasn't given us any indication that he can get things done in Washington. Promises are just words until they are backed up with action.

[mythology]

34. No Sanders isn't the equivalent of Cruz

Sanders has a wish list that isn't going to be enacted, but what Cruz wants would sink the U.S. and roll back rights for millions of Americans.

[CajunBlazer]

38. Ever hear of the "Horseshoe Theory"?

Last edited Mon Dec 7, 2015, 10:49 AM - Edit history (1)

[NurseJackie]

11. Yahoo!

[ram2008]

12. Tossup-- the state that matters right now is Iowa

A tossup in NH is fine for now. He actually improved his standing from the last PPP poll, so it appears the Clinton bump is over.

If Bernie wins Iowa he wins NH, if he loses Iowa he'll either lose NH or barely tie, in which case his chance to win the nom becomes close to zero.

[CajunBlazer]

14. if Bernie wins Iowa and NH...

The next primary is South Carolina where he will run into a brick wall. He is behind by 50 percentage points. Any momentum built up in the previous two victories will die.

[ram2008]

15. He doesn't need to win SC

Just perform well enough.

With two wins in Iowa and NH, chances are momentum and lots of votes will switch over his way. That would be three straight weeks of positive press coverage for Bernie and three straight weeks of how Hillary campaign is collapsing. Instead of a 70-30 race in SC it could become a 60-40 or 55-45.

Nevada could go either way as well, and that takes place before SC.

[CajunBlazer]

16. Okay, then the next primary is Nevada where Bernie is 16 percentage points behind.

[CajunBlazer]

17. Then right behind comes Super Tuesday with all of those Southern States

Surely Bernie will take Vermont, but no one is bothering to poll there.

In the other 10 states which are holding Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday, these are recent polls I could find on RealClearPolitics.com, for those states. These polls were taken in the months of October and November except where noted - Clinton led in every poll - the percentage shown is her lead in each poll:

AL No polls
Arkansas No polls
Georgia +57%
Massachusetts +25%, +34%
Minnesota +18% (8/2/15)
Oklahoma +22%, +35%
Tennessee No polls
Texas +31%, +49%
Vermont No polls
Virginia +42%

Note: The polls tended to be taken in the bigger states with the most delegates to the nation convention. Most of the "no polls" states had Republican Primary polls, but not Democratic polls; I guess you can figure out why.

How is any of the momentum Bernie may get IF he wins both Iowa and NH going to survive multiple losses in the next 3 weeks after the NH primary in South Carolina, Nevada and on Super Tuesday? Simple answer: Momentum is momentum because it builds with each win. Momentum doesn't survive multiple loses and momentum can't overcome 20%+ leads.

[ram2008]

18. You answered your question yourself

"Momentum doesn't survive multiple losses"

In which case, if Hillary loses Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie will probably take Nevada (16% down in a caucus state is easily overcomable) as well because of momentum. SC is tricky... but if Bernie has two consecutive wins you can expect the bottom to fall out of Clinton's campaign. You'll probably hear chatter of campaign firings, Biden thinking about getting back in the race, , how can she win the general, comparisons to 08 etc for close to a month. It would throw the party into chaos.

Any polling outside of the first 3 states is irrelevant as those numbers will depend on the outcome of the first few caucus/primary states.

[CajunBlazer]

20. Dream on!

Yep, you're right. Many of of those Black, Latino, and more conservative voters in the Southern states are going to look at the results in Ohio and New Hampshire and say, "You know those Yankees are always right. I'm going to have to change my mind and vote for Bernie Sanders". I know this because I'm a Southerner myself.

(What the font do we use for sarcasm on this board?)

[ram2008]

21. They did last time

Iowa and New Hampshire you mean. If NH went Obama, the race would've been over right there. Had he lost Iowa he would've lost the nomination.

[CajunBlazer]

22. Have your noticed? Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama!

The black vote is a large part of the Democratic vote in the South and that vote went to solidly to Barack, not Hillary, in 2008. This time around the black vote is solidly in Hilliary's camp and it is not going anywhere regardless of what happens. Most white Southern voters like me are liberal, but more moderately liberal. Bernie just doesn't have the appeal in the South that he has in Vermont, or even New Hampshire.

Trust me - regardless of of what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, Southern voters will not flood to Bernie in numbers anywhere large enough to push their states into the Sander's column.
The deficits are just too big and the situation is quite different from 2008,

[Scootaloo]

28. You speak for blacks and latinos and conservatives now?

Wow. Okay. Anyway...

ram2008 is right. A lot of Clinton's support is simply based on her perceived viability, rather than hard ideological support. That is, she's in the lead because she's in the lead. By winning some primaries, Sanders can suck some of that away. he can show he has the ability to win, and people who favor his ideas but see Clinton as the "most viable" might reconsider. More wind in Sanders' sails. Will it carry him to victory? I don't know. I of course hope so. I AM certain he will do much better than polls right now would indicate.

There's a reason candidates campaign so hard in these early states, after all.

[MADem]

30. I believe the name of the font is "Bless your heart!"

Sorry, couldn't resist....

[Cha]

25. Good on ya, Hillary! All the crap they're flinging is only making you stronger!

[Scootaloo]

27. Oh look, New Hampshire is relevant again!

Funny. I thought Clinton supporters were hemming and hawing about how its "demographics" (that is to say, All Those Fucking White People) rendered New Hampshire totally irrelevant to anything.

I guess that's only the case when polls show Sanders in the lead there, huh?

[MADem]

31. I thought NH would go to Sanders because of his gunny ways and the fact that a lot of NH people

are familiar with him and the city (large town of a city) of Burlington.

I'm surprised there's even a question, and the fact that there is doesn't bode well for the Senator.

[Scootaloo]

32. "His gunny ways"?

So is it Clinton's "bomby ways" paving her way towards victory? I mean bombs do kill more people per blast, on average, so the math works out...

[MADem]

33. Yeah, you know, those ways he's taking heat for in the wake of San Bernadino.

Bernie's got hisself some 'bomby ways,' too--they aren't delivering Amazon packages in those Lockheed Martin F-35s and those Lockheed Martin Predator Drones he likes so well.

[William769]

45. Kick & highly recommended!