2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPolls which indicate Bernie can beat Republican canidates - don't believe them
The are premature:
This is Sander's first time out of the box and the Republican properganda machine is still paying very little attention to him. Go back and look at Hillary's favorability numbers before it was clear she was running and the Republicans made their first attempts to slander her.
If the Republicans ever start thinking Bernie has even a remote chance of winning the nomination, they will hit him with both properganda barrels. The Republican hit machine will turn Bernie's socialist thing inside out and spread stories that the got his early political ideas from reading Karl Marks and Friedrick Engles, whether that is true or not. As we have see so many times before, the truth has no meaning to thes people. They know would be playing into existing bias. Polls have consistently shown that Americans would rather vote for a Muslim or an atheist for president than a socialist.
They will use anything and everything imaginable against him. Bernie is a very good man, but after the Republican hit team is done with him he will be toast long before the general election.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)Nope, nothing. They've just adored her ever since Bill was president and haven't ever had a single mean thing to say about her. They'll never breathe a word about Travelgate, Monica, Vince Foster, Whitewater, lesbians, Troopergate, brain damage, Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi, emails, emails and more emails. All her baggage, which consists of merely of pixie dust and unicorn poop and weighs nothing, would fit neatly into the overhead compartment of a commuter jet. They'd never think of mentioning those old canards because they are such decent people.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)I liked that post.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)....beating their candidates. After they unload both barrels on poor Bernie he will be down for the count.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)I also disagree but I really don't like the choice of words one bit.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)What would be helpful to a good discussion is for you to point out exactly what you think I wrote that isn't true.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)You couldn't be more wrong about that. They're not even warmed up.
The difference is they have volumes of material on Hillary yet ot come and not nearly so much on Bernie - in part, because Bernie doesn't have a political career of lying, flip-flopping and stuff like that.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)....the same ammunition which had limited affect the first time they used it. However, Bernie has already loaded their guns for them. They are so for holding there fire because the don't yet view him as a threat. Keep in mind that most Americans firmly believe in the capitalist system. However most liberal of this folks believe that the people have to be protected from it excesses. They don't believe in socialism. It's not fair, but communism gave Socialism a very bad image in this country. The Republican hit machine will use Bernie's socialism (even though he really is not a socialist) to bury him. And that will be the just the first phase of their campaign. These are not nice folks and the truth is simply an inconvenience for them. Winning is all the believe in.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)All they've done is add to the pile of stuff they've got on her by going after her for Benghazi and her emails with the house and senate investigations (that are not over) and the FBI investigation.
I'm sure blind Clinton supporters will still vote for her if the FBI lays charges against her. But the rest of American? I have my doubts. That's another risk being taken here.
The GOP haven't begun much of a formal ad campaign against her. Their hit squad is still gathering material and preparing the ads.
They can attempt to label Bernie's socialism as an evil thing and they'll try. But a number of Republicans have heard it already and they're not running away from Bernie nearly as badly as they do from Hillary's dishonesty.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)You are starting to sound like a Republican.
God help poor Bernie if (and this is highly unlikely) he ever gets on their radar screen.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)It has nothing to do with blogs. It based upon past practices. The media has written up the researching the GOP has been doing - the war room they've got ready.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)What do you think the will be doing if Bernie by some miracle wins the nomination. You think they will just say, "Darn, we don't have anything on him".
No they will be saying, "Well lookie here what the Democratics have given us, and this guy doesn't have the millions Hillary had to fight back".
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)They want the power of the presidency and they'll do anything to get it.
But the difference is, like Obama, they do not have a big basket of dirty laundry with Bernie like they do with Hillary.
And there are bad feelings about Hillary among independents and Republicans. Vast majority think she's dishonest and they do not trust her and her favorability is terrible. The Hillary dirty laundry has synergy with her untrustworthiness and poor favorability and therefore, is more likely to stick and damage her further or hold her down in the polls. There are enough true facts about her lying and flip-flopping to make these attacks stick.
Bernie is the most favorable and perceived as the most honest candidate with the least dirty laundry. His candidacy helps to negate these types of nasty efforts by the GOP.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)They don't need a basket full of dirty laundry to take down Bernie, they can use his own words. They will point out that he says he's a socialist - The vast majority of Americans believe in capitalism in some form or another. Socialism to them is an ugly word. The Republicans will run ads saying that the (one of) the dictionary definition of socialism is a way point on the road to communism. And that's all my little mind can think of, but I'm not evil like they are. If the truth is not enough they will start spreading lies to show why he acts like a communist, etc. and that will be the end of poor little Bernie
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)and they find out the evil he wants are things like
Medicare for everyone
a better minimum wage
reduction of income inequality
corporate money out of our political process
improvements to social security
... I think many will be pleasantly surprised, finding that we have most of these things - we just need to improve them.
Like some still believe Obama is a Muslim born in Kenya who palled around with terrorists and freaks like Rev Wright, some ignorant ones will believe Bernie is a commie. But most people found Obama to be a pretty reasonable guy and voted for him. When folks find out what Bernie wants, they may say "I ready for an honest guy who unlike Hillary, offers something different I can relate to".
They'll try to demonize him but it's not going to stick nearly as well as you think - nothing like making Hillary out to be an evil, lying flip-flopper - because they have some foundation and video in the can to prove that claim.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts).... socialism is the way to go. It simply not going to happen. Try not to look at the world through your own eyes. Try to see the world through the eyes of the vast majority of Americans who has been told all of their lives that capitalism and a free market is what what made America great. Even for many liberals like myself - our main concern is not capitalism, it is ensuring that the capitalism is keep in check so we can avoid its many excesses which hurt little people. We want business big and small to create jobs, but not at the expense of workers, the environment, or our way of life.
Republicans will also will paint Bernie as a grouchy loner in Congress who seldom formed alliances and who was always on the outside looking in. God knows what they will come up with. But know this, they are already doing their best to bring Hillary down and she is about even with Bernie on how she will do against potential Republican nominees. The difference is publicly no one has thrown near as much mud at Sanders in the primaries as the Republicans and their rich PAC's will throw in the GE if Bernie gets the nomination. Hillary has been able to survive the Republican onslaught because she was already well known. Bernie doesn't have that advantage - most Americans would have recognized his name a few months back - he will be easy for the Republicans to tar and feather.
Then don't underestimate the ability to the Republican hit machine, powered by hundreds of millions of dollars of Koch contributions to twist Bernie "socialism" into a rope around his neck. And the sad thing is that without PAC's of his own to fight back, Bernie will find it very difficult to raise the many millions of dollars necessary to fight back. Heck, President Obama would not have won the Presidency without a PAC
But right now Bernie has more immediate problems - currently he hasn't even been able to persuade a enough liberals to take the nomination.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)She hasn't survived it. She's never really faced it before. What has she won?
In a very Blue state, with big Wall Street money behind her, she won two senate elections against Rick Lazio and John Spencer. Not exactly giants in the circumstances. They were underdogs up against it in a blue state.
To date, she really hasn't faced the full national Republican onslaught in an election because Obama beat her in 2008. they attacked her on Benghazi and her emails but she hasn't got through all of that yet (investigations are ongoing, 1/3 of her emails have yet to be released). Right now, she's well behind Rubio so she's not doing too hot. And the campaigns haven't really gone at her in the media with ads or debates yet because we're still in the primary.
You're counting chickens before they've hatched and the embryo for the general election isn't looking too healthy at the moment.
She has survived it - where have you been? Under a rock? The Republicans have had 32 hearings on Benghazi alone. They also have spent $20 million in our tax dollars and asked 2,780 questions and put out 11 reports on the Benghazi attacks and come up with exactly nothing to show for it. (The emails played a big part in those hearings.) For nine months now every time a Republican politician has been interviewed on CNN or any major news channel they have be done their best to throw Hillary under the bus for one reason or another.
On the other hand Bernie hasn't really been attacked by even by other Democratic candidates, much less by Republicans who don't want to waste ammunition on him because they don't view him as a worthy target.
I think that Hillary will beat ether a narcissistic clown, a know nothing surgeon, an anti government idiot who shut the government down twice, or a wet behind the ears punk who is currently losing in his home state to the narcissistic clown.
Now there is always a chance Hillary could lose to one of these candidates in the general election, but even after the attacks she has survived, she is beating your candidate by 23 to 35 percentage points in the last five national polls. Those are not trivial numbers. She is also leading Bernie by 9, 6 and 18 percentage points in last three Iowa polls, She is about even in three polls with Bernie in one of the most white and liberal states in the union - New Hampshire, she has a 50% lead in South Carolina, and 16% lead in the only recent poll in Nevada.
In addition Bernie is going to get smeared in the 12 Super Tuesday primaries, because a big majority of those states are in the South were Bernie is not doing well at all. After that I think it will be all over but the shouting.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)First of all, it's still going on. It's not over.
Nov 23, 2015: Grassley steps up Senate probe of Clinton emails
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/grassley-steps-up-senate-probe-of-clinton-emails/article/2576969
What planet are you on? You think Grassley is all done with Hillary? You're dreamin'
Another 8,000 pages of emails was just released. The media is just starting to dig into them:
Dec 2, 2015: Clinton lied about Benghazi attacks knew from the start that it was terrorism
http://www.examiner.com/article/clinton-lied-about-benghazi-attacks-knew-from-the-start-that-it-was-terrorism
One of the emails released was from the night of the attack. Just afterwards, Clinton exchanged emails with daughter Chelsea, who "used the pseudonym "Diane Reynolds." Clinton admitted "Two of our officers were killed in Benghazi by an Al Queda-like [sic] group." Hillary continued, "Very hard day and I fear more of the same tomorrow."
Dec 1, 2015: Fox News is in a tizzy because another 328 emails in the new batch had classified info
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/01/clinton-emails-show-benghazi-response-back-patting-after-contentious-hearing.html
Dec 1, 2015: Clinton Emails: Benghazi Testimony Contradicted In New State Department Emails
Clinton said during her Benghazi testimony that she received live updates about the Benghazi attacks through secure communication lines, however, newly released emails show otherwise.
http://www.hngn.com/articles/155818/20151201/clinton-emails-benghazi-testimony-contradicted-new-state-department.htm
Nov 24, 2015: Benghazi, email probes plow ahead after Clinton testimony
http://news.yahoo.com/benghazi-email-probes-plow-ahead-clinton-testimony-081641064--election.html
House Republicans on the Benghazi investigation are travelling to Europe to gather evidence
The article mentions Grassley's efforts with the Senate investigation (above)
"FBI Director James Comey has said the bureau's inquiry (on Clinton's email) is continuing." in conjunction with Senate Homeland Security Committee investigation led by Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis
You think crap like that is over? All of the above is recent news - with new trash coming out and they're all still looking. When they've got through this batch that was just released, they'll have gotten 2/3rds of the way through her emails with 1/3 more to come. The political knives on this are drawn and still trying to slash her up.
She's survived it? Her favorability and trustworthy numbers are horrific. 60% of the country doesn't trust her. She's been badly wounded. I can't think of anyone with numbers remotely close to those who won the presidency. They've damaged her already and they're far from done. They're just getting warmed up for the main event. She's survived nothing yet because she hasn't won anything and has been badly hacked up.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)Bernie's very competitive in NH.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
He's up in the last two polls and I wouldn't put too much faith into Gravis (the one recent, not solid pollster who has Hillary in front)
With Cllinton slagging Iowan caucuses
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/did-hillary-clinton-diss-iowa-caucuses-private-email-n472251
and the Iowa contest was already tightening to single digits
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
A window is opening for Bernie. Strangely, kind of like it did for Obama who was similarly behind.
If Bernie takes Iowa and NH, I think this primary becomes a real contest. The polls in other states are going to tighten up.
Add in an Elizabeth Warren endorsement or a couple of higher profile endorsement defections to Bernie like John Lewis did in 2008 and we've got a real race.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/27/lewis-switches-from-clinton-to-obama/
If Hillary keeps lying about 9/11 and Wall Street money, she's going to turn a lot of Dems off too and come back to the pack.
It's uphill for Bernie but it certainly isn't over.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)but sooner or later reality comes calling.
Hillary is beating your candidate by 23 to 35 percentage points in the last five national polls. Those are not trivial numbers. She is also leading Bernie by 9, 6 and 18 percentage points in last three Iowa polls, She is about even in three polls with Bernie in one of the whitest, most liberal states in the union - New Hampshire, she has a 50% lead in South Carolina, and 16% lead in the only recent poll in Nevada.
In addition Bernie is going to get smeared in the 12 Super Tuesday primaries, because a big majority of those states are in the South were Bernie is not doing well at all. After that I think it will be all over but the shouting.
And by the way, Elizabeth Warren was the only one of the 14 Democratic women in the Senate to not come out and endorse Hillary Clinton today, though Elizabeth did write a letter to Hillary urging her to run back in 2013. No one knows who Elizabeth will endorse, but keep in mind that most of her loyal followers are already in the Bernie camp, so it's not likely to make a lot of difference one way or the other who she endorses, especially it is Bernie.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)What really matters right now are those early states. If she can sweep February, barring one of the committees investigating her finding some solid dirt, Bernie would be done.
Until then, Bernie very much as a shot. As I've said, if he takes Iowa and NH, Hillary has a real primary problem.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Iowa because of their faunky caucus system which minimizes participation and New Hampshire because it is among the whitest, most liberal states in the union. Both are February 1st.; NH the 9th.
But you are correct, if Bernie loses both, his goose is cooked. However, don't assume that even if he wins both, the voters will suddenly flood to his support. Then 11 days later on Feb. 20th comes South Carolina where Hillary leads Bernie by 50%. To be clear the gap is 50% and given the make up of the SC voters and Democratic leaders in that state, that margin is highly unlikely to change. Whatever momentum Bernie might be able to pick up in Iowa and NH will die a certain death in South Carolina.
Nevada is also the 20th and there Hilary leads by 16 points.
Then 10 days later comes Super Tuesday on March 1st. 11 state hold their Democratic primaries on that date: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. Sorry, the bad news is that Bernie is losing by a minimum of 23 points in all of those states that have recent poll results. You would think that Bernie would win his home state of Vermont, but no one has bother to poll in that tiny state with its tiny number of delegates. Bernie is in trouble in all of the other Super Tuesday states.
You can still hope for miracles, but prepare for defeat..
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)what would Obama have won. Nothing. That's why they set dates for elections and don't try to hold them 3 months before in an internet forum.
That's what you're trying to do. Not all folks aren't buying it like they wouldn't buy it in 2007.
If Bernie wins NH & Iowa, the polls in the subsequent states are going to tighten, like they did in 2007-8. There will be massive media attention on Bernie supposedly trying to figure out what is going on and questioning Hillary's candidacy (when some of it will be merely media tinkering with making the primary competitive to boost ratings like they did in 2007).
Bernie supporters are not going to give Hillary the nomination by acclimation, particularly when she's still lying about stuff like 9/11 and Wall Street.
If you want to stick your head in the sand and pretend that Hillary's already won, that's your prerogative.
Three months before Super Tuesday in 2008, Hilary was +26 over Obama in Connecticut. Obama won the state +3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ct/connecticut_democratic_primary-273.html
The polling tide turned when he won Iowa
Three months before Super Tuesday in 2008, Hilary was +30 over Obama in Arizona. Obama lost the state -8
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_democratic_primary-311.html
but in closing the gap, the delegates went 31 Clinton to 25 Obama in part because Obama won some of the districts and the delegates that went with them.
In Colorado, Clinton was +16, lost to Obama +2
In Missouri, Clinton was +15-+19, lost to Obama +1.3
In Minnesota, Clinton was 47% in Sept, and lost the state to Obama +33 (just an 80 pt swing ...)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic_caucuses,_2008
In Georgia, Clinton +13 in October, lost to Obama +35
In Alabama, Clinton +21 in August, lost to Obama +14
In Massachusetts, Clinton was +33 in January, Clinton won +15
- but Obama won some delegates (ie won Boston) by closing the gap
In New Jersey, Clinton was +35, Clinton won +9.8
- but Obama won some delegates by closing that gap
In New York (her home state), Clinton was +38, Clinton won +17
- but Obama won 93 delegates in part, by closing that gap
In California, Clinton was +25, Clinton won +9.6
- but Obama won 166 delegates in part, by closing that gap
Obama was significantly behind in November 2007, three months before Super Tuesday, he made up a ton of ground and won Super Tuesday. It was triggered in early January by the media waking up with his Iowa win.
If you want to count your chickens before they're hatched, be my guest. Bernie is not Obama but he still has a reasonable path for beating Hillary.
If Bernie wins Iowa & NH, then it's at least game on until Super Tuesday in March. You won't be able to stop the media from trying to milk it. "What's wrong with Hillary? (as John King brings up her bad favorability and dishonesty numbers) "why can't she put Bernie away?" (panel discussion that inevitably takes her down a few notches - waking up more people to the idea Bernie could beat her ... and the polls tighten some more ... and the ratings go up .. and then they play more video of Bernie talking to his supporters ...)
Sorry, this thing ain't over. And it doesn't require a miracle.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Obama had excellent support from the black population which which is a large force in the Democratic party in the South. For Bernie the black vote has been a problem. That population is now solidly behind Clinton. For example, look at the lead that Clinton has in South Carolina - 50 percentage points - that's unreal. That black vote is also very unlikely to suddenly switch sides and the majority of 11 Super Tuesday primary are in the South this time around.
I suspect that Black voters feel that they cannot afford the luxury of being idealists, that political consequences hit closer to home for them. Therefore they have tendency be much more pragmatic in their political decision making. So I can understand their preference for Clinton over Sanders. In addition, Bill was a big favorite among black voters in his time. Without Barack in this race, old loyalties are remembered.
In addition, the primaries are much more compressed together in 2016 than they were in 2008. You could make an argument whether that this might help one candidate or the other, but it is certainly different.
But again the main difference between Obama and Sanders is in the men themselves. Barack was young and charismatic and an excellent speaker. It was this charisma and speaking ability that first brought him to the attention of the American public. Bernie is the polar opposite, he has the image of a grouchy old man who speaks his mind. Obama was a rising star; Sanders has been a known quantity to progressives for decades. Obama poll number rose on a continual basis during 2007, though slowly at first. He had positive momentum throughout and it accelerated when it a appeared to he had a chance to win. Bernie's poll numbers jumped up pretty quickly due to his existing support among the most progress among us and because of Republican attacks on Hillary. Bernie's support has since leveled off and stagnated.
In addition Obama picked up a number of endorsements from celebrities like Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy, Stevie Wonder, and Maria Shriver. Bernie has few endorsements from those that matter to voters. This time Hillary has picked up the endorsements of almost every establishment Democrat who has made a declaration including most of the women in congress. Bernie has few establishment endorsements. And Hillary has maintained the support of the Latino community she had in 2008.
You can pin your hopes on Obama's victory in 2008, but this a different time and Bernie is a very different candidate. Hey, I like Bernie and I can understand your enthusiasm for him. Continue to hope, but prepare yourself for defeat.
My chickens may not have yet hatched, but I see peck holes in the egg shells.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)Shock Poll: Bernie Sanders is the Most Electable Candidate in Either Party
Sanders shows the power and appeal of the progressive movement
http://observer.com/2015/12/shock-poll-bernie-sanders-is-the-most-electable-candidate-in-either-party/
the more people see that, the more they'll be willing to dump Hillary, the candidate they don't trust, for the candidate they do trust and like more.
Black Lives Matter Supporters Give 7 Reasons They Cant Support Hillary Clinton
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251868266
Would that be Hillary's strongest demographic constituency fracturing with some heading to Bernie??
Kinda of messes up your narrative as did Killer Mike.
As for endorsements, like I said, Elizabeth Warren is hanging out there and would be like Ted Kennedy hopping on board - and she might bring the Kennedy's with her
http://nypost.com/2014/08/03/kennedys-pushing-warren-to-run-against-hillary-in-2016/
Joe (Kennedy) thinks Hillary has too many ties with Wall Street, this source added.
As much as Hillary and her supporters wish it wasn't so, this thing is far from over.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)The Black Lives Matter bunch has a lot of passion by sorely lacks political wisdom. You don't take the mike away from Bernie and demonstrate a Hillary rally. That's just not waking around smart. They are a bumbling bunch that needs better leadership to be effective. They should be concentrating on their enemies instead of pressuring their friends. I can't see them ever supporting Bernie, but the black vote is going no where, regardless of what the Black Lives Matter bunch does.
Elizabeth Warren is not going to get into the race at his late date; she has no organization so that would be political suicide and she isn't dumb. If she has any Presidential aspirations, she is smart enough to keep her powder dry for a later run. If she did run, and I guarantee you she will not, she would simply take Bernie's supporters away for him or split them with him.
Look you're getting desperate, but realize if you only read what you agree with, you will never come to a better perspective of the world around you. I bet you have seen many articles in your "research" which indicate that Bernie is going to lose, but you have never read them because you wouldn't like what they said.
You can live in your fantasy world until reality knocks down your doors and comes barging in, but I am going to spend no more time arguing with you; you're simply not worth no more of my time. That and I'm sure that the rest of DU is getting tired of seeing this worn out thread being kicked to the top of the heap time after time. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Bye,
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)She's said she isn't and I take her at her word - even though the Kennedys wanted her over Hillary.
But if Elizabeth Warren were to endorse Bernie and maybe the Kennedys got behind it, that blows all the endorsements Hillary has acquired to date away. That would be an earthquake in the primary and the media would be giving Bernie a ton of free positive coverage. It would be a little like when Ted Kennedy got behind Barack. The polls would shift dramatically towards Bernie - because one of the things hampering Bernie would get a shot in the arm - many more people would start to believe he could win and quickly drop the woman they don't trust and don't like (which is how about 60% of the country feels about Hillary).
If Elizabeth endorses Bernie, Hillary's campaign will be shaking in their boots. It will be a real contest then like 2008. And we know one thing: Elizabeth is the only female Dem senator to pass on endorsing Hillary - because like the Kennedys, Elizabeth doesn't believe in being owned by Wall Street money like Hillary is and Elizabeth saw first hand with Hillary's flip-flop on the bankruptcy bill or we've seen recently with Hillary's lie about 9/11 being the reason Wall Street funded her (when it had funded her and her husband long before 9/11).
The Kennedys and Elizabeth Warren, two big pillars of this part, don't like Hillary that much. They could play kingmaker much like Ted and Caroline did in 2008.
And you think this is all over ...
Bye
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Whatever
You can argue with yourself now. You might win that argument.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)Hillary's ahead, has the significant advantage and therefore, has the significantly better probability to win.
But like we saw in 2007-8, and we've seen in politics many times, that can change, Bernie still has a fair shot.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)and put your money on Sanders - they are giving him 14 to one odds right now. for every dollar your bet on him you will get $14 if he wins. Bet your life savings, you could be rich.
On the other hand, if you bet on Hillary and she wins you will get a $1.10 for every dollar you bet on her. She is what they all a "prohibitive favorite".
But be aware that Vegas does not predict the out come of games, fights or elections. They simply set the odds so that people will bet evenly on the participants, so the odds simply reflect what normal people think is going to happen.
But you aren't just a "normal person". Since you have superior knowledge that the public doesn't have, you could win a bundle. Go for it.
Win or lose I will contact you when either Hillary or Bernie drops out of the race (and probably endorses the other).
If you want to make a bet - you and me - we can set the condition that the loser must apologize profusely to the winner on the UD Discussion board and send the winner an email that the post has been made. Do you believe in Bernie's chances enough to make that bet?
Karma13612
(4,554 posts)with Bernie's populist message:
1) affordable healthcare
2) higher minimum wage
3) women's right to choose
4) criminal justice reform
5) free tuition
6) secured Social Security
7) expanded Medicare
I think you get the picture.
Bernie speaks to the masses.
No one else has come close. He has cross over appeal with SOME republicans. He has the millenials.
When people learn about him, they love him.
The country is not afraid of Socialism. That is soooooo 20th century.
#Bernie16
brooklynite
(94,721 posts)Mud pies, if you prefer?
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)And still standing strong
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)I liked that post.
Segami
(14,923 posts)Oh, you know those Republicans,....they're just so bashful & tame and would never stoop down to old school dirty political tricks.....
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)were using them to make a point. Next, they are insignificant as Sanders has yet to be vetted by the media. Finally, whoever wins is going to have the battle of a lifetime against republicans. I'm ready for it and believe Clinton, who has been fully vetted, will be our best chance.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Going into battle with her is the risk of a lifetime.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)"Socialist" is a term de guerre, that was used by Republicans on FDR, LBJ, Clinton, and Obama. Didn't work then. If Hillary is nominated, it will be used on her.
--imm
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)They've overused it so much that it's effectively meaningless to anyone other than people who won't vote for any Democrat anyhow.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)..... who has been advertising himself as a Socialist his entire life.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)When I ask my RW friends to name a Democrat who is not socialist, they go blank. Red herring.
--imm
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)... The typical American voter is vulnerable to Republican propaganda. The Surely you know that from recent history. When they are done with Bernie, the Republican hit machine funded by Koch PACS will have people believing that Bernie used to be communist. And a scary one at that.
The truth and fair mean absolutely nothing to these people. This is political reality today. You stick your head in the sand and ignore it at your own peril.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)--imm
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)They try to respond by differentiating themselves from socialists. If one was to respond: "ok, what is wrong with social democrat / democratic socialistic politics which have been denonstrated effective in plenty of representative democracies in the developed world" i think their logic implodes. Just a thought.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Maybe just maybe it is a good thing to run on what you actually believe and be honest about your core principles and leanings? (note: this is not a dig at HRC, it is a legitimate point in general)
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Like the American voters supported Kerry after the Swift Boat attacks. That was one of the most repugnant, disingenuous political attacks ever, yet enough voters bought it to sway the election. Never underestimate an evil opponent.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts).... And they view those that have them as handicapped.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)CajunBlazer, like soooo many in the Clinton camp, is flat fucking terrified of ever being associated with socialism at any level. It says nothing about Republicans, and everything about these Democrats.
Snotcicles
(9,089 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)....called socialists, consider the attitude of the rest of the country. If Bernie can't even garner support of the majority of his fellow liberals, how is he going to appeal to centralist and conservatives once the the Republican hit squads go all out to hang him by his socialist label.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)I'm not going to run away from a good thing because some "democarates" is scared the republicans will cal lhim a name if he coems along. if you wanna be that guy, then go be that guy, and stop trying to hold the rest of us back.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... that would sink him. Unfair or not, he'd never be able to overcome it once the GOP money machine started their attacks. (But we'll never have to worry about that ... Look at Hillary's numbers and endorsements ... Look how far behind Bernie is in both.)
Plus it appears that "winnability" is a minor consideration in voters' minds. Experience and ability is paramount.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Obama has spent 8 years being called a socialist daily. It doesn't have that Cold War propaganda value any more for most people.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Not as much, but enough to make a difference, and enough to sink him.
Also, the candidate who takes pride in being "broke" and exclusively "grass roots funded" will not stand a chance against the Republican money machine.
But, as I pointed out, this is just verbal sparring and a battle of wits between the different camps. None of it matters because he won't be the nominee. It's a simple as that.
Best2u.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)remembered there are stories on Sanders the GOP has not hit over and over. Just like some of the debunked talking points thrown at Hillary, there is whole list which has not been thrown on Sanders.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)I'm not afraid of the GOP dirty tricks, they only work because we give them too much respect.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)The multiple "consistent" ones you discuss about voting for Muslims, atheists and socialists?
Thanks.
merrily
(45,251 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)on the wall of his senatorial office! All hell will break loose!
True Socialists believe he shouldn't have that portrait since he's more of a Democrat than a Socialist these days, but that won't matter to the rabid-Right! Someone calling oneself a Socialist is akin to calling oneself a Satanist. These people are nutz, I know, but their moneyed masters have the funds to create propaganda scary enough to frighten the average American who isn't as politically active as we are and who know better.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Julian Bond and Kurt Vonnegut Jr, whose award ceremony was attended by Mayor Sanders of Burlington. Dolores Huerta, Danny Glover, Richard Trumka all accepted that award and none of them carried on as if the name Debs was a toxin.
All hell, it's breaking loose!
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)It's hilarious.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Eugene Debs founded the American Socialist Party and ran forPresident five times under its banner.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)But, the people saying that will vote for Hillary.......or,....something.
Red Bait much?
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)So it didn't stick to him in the eyes of the average voter. It will stick to Bernie like glue.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)Other Democrats are all, "Oh, no, I'm not a socialist, I'm a good capitalist! See all my campaign contributions from Goldman Sachs?" Bernie can do a judo thing - "Yes, I'm a democratic socialist and here's what it means..." So far he seems to be persuading a lot of people.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Like it or not, most Americans believe in capitalism. What makes most Democrats different from Republicans is our desire to file smooth capitalism's extremely rough edges. In truth Bernie is not a true capitalist since he doesn't believe that government should control or own businesses. However when the Republican hit machine gets through with him that distinction will be lost in the shuffle. They will eat Bernie alive.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)I'm not sure he could survive it emotionally or politically.
They are some low down dirty SOB's.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)Yes, of course they'll red-bait, even more than DU. But even though they are low down and dirty they'll never breathe a word about Travelgate, Monica, Vince Foster, Whitewater, lesbians, Troopergate, brain damage, Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi, emails, emails and more emails.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)And his quotes of praise for their leaders and socialist systems.
Bernie has never been up against their ugliness.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)She is still beating all of their candidate. They have emptied the guns on her. They haven't even shot at Bernie yet and he is still far behind in the race for the nomination. He wouldn't survive the general election.
--imm
frylock
(34,825 posts)Are you a fucking psychologist? Is he going to cry like Hillary did in 2008?
Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)or not
Could Hillary handle him that easily?
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)11. But hes not a big fan of campaigning. In the middle of a campaign it seems that everything comes to the fore. All your neuroses, all your fears, all your weaknesses, he writes candidly about something many politicians probably feel. It is depressing and debilitating.
This won't play well in South Florida.
19. He also visited Cuba with Jane in 1989 and tried to meet with Fidel Castro, but it didnt work out and he met with the mayor of Havana and other officials instead.
merrily
(45,251 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)You see I have the perhaps mistaken perception that you original inane remark was used to cover the fact that you did not have an adequate response.
merrily
(45,251 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Just wanted to be sure you weren't holding back some gem of wisdom. Okay, bye.
merrily
(45,251 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Take it or leave it. But don't bother offering lame rationalizations to soothe your discomfort. We heard this same crap in 2007/08. Hillary and her goon squad insisted Americans would not elect a black man in 2008. How'd that turn out again? Hillary has a warehouse of scandals and dodgy behavior to harvest. Maybe you should start worrying about that.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)The Republican hit machine hasn't decided to have Bernie for dinner !- yet.
And in case you haven't noticed, Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama; it's not even close. And Hillary has been totally vetted, they haven't enen n started on Bernie yet.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)... with concomitant quid pro quo donations to a family foundation?
Nope.
Maybe you should start worrying about that.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)They have already told that lie about Hillary and she is still beating their candidates. Just wait until their big money lies rip into poor Bernie.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)And in the event of Hillary winning the nomination will be used to annihilate her, deservedly.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)http://www.ibtimes.com/clinton-foundation-donors-got-weapons-deals-hillary-clintons-state-department-1934187
great synopsis:
http://trofire.com/2015/05/28/hillary-clinton-sold-weapons-to-hostile-nations-to-enrich-defense-funders/
While Republicans have been distracted by phony scandals surrounding Hillary Clinton (like Benghazi), they missed one of the dirtiest scandals ever to emerge involving the former First Lady and current front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2016. A damning new report from the International Business Times explains how Hillary Clinton used her position as Secretary of State to create a pay-to-play atmosphere for world leaders seeking military equipment and defense contractors looking to make a few extra billions.
Here is what the IBT report uncovered:
* The value of these sales to these countries were double the value of those approved by the Bush administration over the same period of time.
* Total sales topped $151 billion countries that gave to the Clinton Foundation. A 143% increase for those countries over what they got during the Bush years.
* Here is an example of how the pay to play scam worked: Saudi Arabia wanted F-15 fighter jets, which they received after making a $900,000 donation to the Clinton Foundation. Clinton personally approved that deal. This happened after Hillary complained about the country continuing to ignore the money that was flowing from Saudi Arabia to terrorist organizations. In short, she knew that the country was funding terrorists who were fighting American soldiers, and still was willing to sell them heavy artillery because they gave her group money.
* These countries that were receiving sweetheart deals from Clinton were violating human rights left and right, and thats according to information that the State Department had. Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait all of these countries had been singled out by the State Department for things like corruption, violation of civil liberties, and violently retaliating against political opponents. But Hillary looked past all of these atrocities when she gave them massive weaponry.
* Algeria had been singled out as allowing arbitrary killing in the country and for having what they called widespread corruption. But after a half million dollar donation to the Clinton Foundation, they received a 70% increase in military weapon imports that included toxicological agents, biological agents, chemical agents. During her time at the State Department, Hillary approved $2.7 billion to the country of Algeria, which is almost triple what the Bush administration had sold to them in their last few years in office. Algeria had been put on watch by Hillarys State Department for abuses such as human trafficking, their practicing of disappearing political and social dissidents, and for allowing violent criminals to kidnap, rape, and terrorize citizens in areas of the country without actively trying to stop them.
But when youre giving hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Secretary of States charity, those egregious human rights abuses can be swept under the rug to make room for your new shipment of chemical weapons. Legally, these countries are not allowed to make political donations to U.S. politicians if they are seeking arms deals from the government, but there is no law that prevents them from making charitable donations. And thats how they were legally able to bribe Hillary Clinton. National security experts even came forward at the time and said that these donations represented a very serious conflict of interest. Their warnings went unheeded. But the real winner in all of this was the defense industry.
At the same time that Clinton was approving massive arms deals to hostile countries, Bill Clinton was making the rounds on the speaking circuit being paid as much as $625,000 for each event. These events were sponsored by companies like Boeing, General Electric, and Lockheed Martin. At one event, MSNBC hosts Mika Brzeninski and Joe Scarborough served as the emcees of the event while their employer General Electric reaped huge benefits from Hillarys deals with these countries.
Another great example is when Goldman Sachs paid Bill $200,000 to speak at an event at the same time that they owned a part of defense contractor Hawker Beechcraft, who received a $675 million deal less than two months after Bills speech. This story expertly defines who Hillary Clinton really is, and who she looks after when in a position of power. America cannot afford another defense industry hack as president were still picking up the pieces from Ws destruction.
How Hillary Ruined Her Legacy as Secretary of State:
peacebird
(14,195 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)most recently by chervilant here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=855916
and my post here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=850986
It appears some here are impervious to the facts.
Cheers.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)The Secretary of State does not make decisions on who this country sells fighter jets to. More is the antsy evidence that any money donated furor charatible causes ever influenced her decisions as SOS. It's not like she or Bill got the money personally
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Let me make my points again because you obviously weren't paying attention the first time:
1. The Secretary of State does not make decisions on who we sell weapons to. Period. End of story. Any weapon sold to any country had to be approved by the Obama administration, that is to say the President himself. Now if you can prove the President Obama approved weapons for countries because of money given to the Clintons or the Clinton charities then you've got something.
2. In order to have a story that will stick you need to prove a quid pro quo, that is you need to show that certain things happen because money changed hands That is the weapons were sold because money changed hands. That would be impossible because Clinton did not have the authority to make the weapon sales happen.
This story has been around for quite a while. The reason the Republicans have been seized on it need it because they know is bogus and it will be shown to be so if they push it. They're not stupid.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)an example - large as life - right in the synopsis provided (read the IBT, link provided, for the unvarnished facts):
You are not qualified to comment further on this because you clearly are not exerting due diligence in examining the facts and are just spinning your wheels. I'm done spoon-feeding you.
"There are none so blind as those that that will not see."
Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)they are way to close to the Saudis. We need someone who can get tough with the Saudis.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)they are so few and far between.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Who was recently posting "shut up and get in line" threads on behalf of a woman with consistently underwater favorability ratings with the general public?
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)An obstinate refusal to see the glaring flaws in the candidate you're trying to shove down everyone else's throat. Bernie has room to move. Hillary has been in the public eye for decades. Attitudes about her are set. She
Will drag the whole party down with her.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Wait until the big money PACS start lying on every TV screen in the country about Bernie - the results won't be pretty.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)It's not going to take much for them to take down Hillary. She hands it to them on a silver platter.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)..... she really hasn't turned her guns on them yet either. Don't forget that her husband is among the most brilliant political strategist of out lifetimes.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)We have the corporate media we do today. The reason blue collar working class people have abandoned the Democratic Party. The reason we have neutered ourselves on bedrock economic values in favor of corporate campaign cash. He was one of the architects of what the Democratic Party has warped into and she represents it. She needs to be opposed if we ever want a chance of pulling the party back to representing the voices of Americans without big money and lobbyists on their side.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,831 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)... For the period when the the canvassing occurred. However, those who cover polls closely are keenly aware that that both expected and unexpected events can and will affect the results of future polls.
We obviously can not predict the effects of unexpected events, but we can anticipate the effects of expected events. In this case we know that the Republican hit machine has gone full bore after Hillary and we know they haven't gone after Bernie because at this point the don't view him as a threat. And we know how they are going to attack him and can to a large extent predict the will be suceessful. IMHO, understanding the proclivities of the voting public, if Bernie is the nominee he will be toast before the general election.
concreteblue
(626 posts)Nothing else needs to be said.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)You are new here so perhaps you have not read the TOS. We try hard here to not use derogatory terms when referring to supporters.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Spare us your sanctimony
concreteblue
(626 posts)So, a member since 2007 (8 years) is "new" here.
They must have been fooled by my New Guy Smell.
Gothmog
(145,524 posts)These polls do not reflect the fact that Sanders would not be a viable candidate in a campaign where the Koch Brothers will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend another billion dollars.
Bernblu
(441 posts)Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)Gothmog
(145,524 posts)Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)As opposed to all the fairy tales I read around here.
Gothmog
(145,524 posts)Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)and never nominated a hard right candidate ever again. They at least had the sense to nominate George H.W.Bush Sr. in 1980 instead of that senior citizen right winger Ronald Reagan. Then when the right tried to take control of the Congressional Republican Party in the late 80's led by Newt Gingrich - they soundly rejected that idea a stayed with the moderates. And more recently when it became clear that George W. Bush became obviously hard right - they rejected him overwhelmingly for the more moderate sounding John McCain.
Now as we can see all of their most popular Presidential candidates range between moderate and centrist to moderately liberal just like their House and Senate leadership.
Why can't the Democrats follow the Republicans example on how to win and stop trying to push the envelope? Can't they learn from history too?
tritsofme
(17,399 posts)to how a "generic Democrat" would perform. Your post is definitely correct.
PatrickforO
(14,587 posts)Bernblu
(441 posts)His favorable and trust ratings are much superior to Clinton's. He does better with independents and the head to head match ups against Republicans. People actually like Sanders and respect his integrity, authenticity, and moral center. Yes. the GOP will try use the Socialist bogeyman against Sanders but they will use the same bogey man against Clinton as they have used against Obama and many other Democrats since FDR. More effectively, they will use will use Clinton's Wall St. connections against her. It is these Wall Street connections and the money she has taken form Wall St. Banks that will make Clinton toxic to many voters in the battleground states that have not fully recovered from the 2008 financial collapse. The attacks against Clinton will be more effective because voters do not like or trust her. If you are sincerely interested in electing a Democratic President you will vote for Bernie Sanders.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)And regardless of how will Bernie is doing now against GOP candidates, the Republican hit machine will devastate him before the general election. He is easy pray for their dirty tricks powered by their hundreds of millions of dollars in ad money.
doc03
(35,363 posts)after the Republican attack ads run. They want him to win the Democratic nomination they can take him out easy.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)Punkingal
(9,522 posts)The evil "Socialist" argument can be defused forever as a tool for Republicans if there was an honest dialogue about it, with someone like Bernie on the national stage. People have bought the bullshit about it because no Democrat has had the balls to fight back.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)So all of a sudden, polls should be disregarded. Disregarded I say! The coronation depends on it! Debbie commands you by the power of Third Way! Disregard those polls!
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)99Forever
(14,524 posts)You really suck at this.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Have you considered becoming a professional political writer?
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Post bullshit, get bullshit back.
Deal with it.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)of you showing your best talents, such as they are.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]"Everybody is just on their feet screaming 'Kill Kill Kill'! This is -hockey- Conservative values!"[/center][/font][hr]