Latest HuffPost/Pollster national chart showing Hillary still steadily rising at 57.5%

[DCBob]

Custom:
-- 7/1 - current
-- Less smoothing option (to reveal more detail)
-- All polls



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary#!mindate=2015-07-01&smoothing=less&estimate=custom

Bernie is stuck around 30%. Interestingly O'Malley is rising and is at his highest level now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Up Up and Away

[DCBob]

2. Nice!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. An explanation for this:

Bernie is stuck around 30%. Interestingly O'Malley is rising and is at his highest level now.

Martin O’Malley is mired at the bottom of the polls and struggling to raise money for his presidential bid, but Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' campaign is circulating an internal document to its staff and supporters tearing down the former Maryland governor’s immigration plan.
“While Governor O’Malley’s immigration platform is more detailed and progressive Clinton, there are many immigration policy areas that it does not address,” reads the document, which goes on to outline how Sanders is more substantive on immigration policy than O’Malley on about a dozen issues including “enforcement, detention and humanitarian relief.”
Story Continued Below


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/bernie-sanders-memo-omalley-immigration-216218#ixzz3sokzYPdo

[riversedge]

4. .... in my beautiful ballon.....

[Rosa Luxemburg]

42. Careful it doesn't get deflated?

[Alfresco]

41. Marilyn McCoo

had an impact on me as a teenager. I will not elaborate.

[mcar]

50. DSB you are so good at this!

I loved the Fifth Dimension when I was growing up.

[Rose Siding]

5. Low to mid thirties.

For Bernie, that was the prediction all along. 83% of Dems support Obama and 61% want to see his policies continue-

Democrats have remained very loyal to President Barack Obama. In our September poll, Obama’s overall job rating is 46%, but Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of the president. Fully 83% of Democrats approve of the way Obama is handling his job, compared with 43% of independents and just 9% of Republicans.

At a comparable point in his presidency, George W. Bush had a lower overall job rating (31%) and lower rating among his own party (66%) than Obama does today. Bill Clinton had a higher overall job rating at a comparable point (56% in September 1999), but Clinton’s job rating among Democrats was about the same as Obama’s today (82%).
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/10/12/5-facts-about-democrats/

[left-of-center2012]

6. I got a different Huff Post graph?????

When I go to :
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

It shows Hillary at 56.6 and Bernie at 31.7 and the lines in the graph are different from the one you posted.
Your graph shows Bernie falling. This one shows him rising.
Curious.

[Hiraeth]

11. !

[DCBob]

22. I did a custom graph with "less smoothing" option to show more detail..

as noted in the OP.

[Thor_MN]

26. Your graph shows a much longer time span

Goes back to last January, the other is from August forward. Yours is more suited to the memes of "trending" and "surging", which don't actually mean anything.

The other graph shows undecideds picking a candidate, all three are showing gains.

The fact remains that Sanders is in second place by a substantial margin and unless he can turn that around, he will not be the nominee. If the front runner has more than 50%, the second place candidate is in very tough shape.

I'm one of the remaining undecideds. Based on policies, I like Sanders. Based on electability, I like Clinton. Based on their DU supporters, I'd go with Clinton.

[left-of-center2012]

47. "Based on their DU supporters"

What does that mean?

[Thor_MN]

49. I literally spelled it out...

Of course, the average may be skewed by trolls, but I prefer lack of hypocrisy and delusion.

[workinclasszero]

7. Bernie hit his peak awhile back

Hillary is the choice for the vast majority of democrats in this country and she will be our nominee!

DU is so distorted and unlike the real world its laughable! Its a Bernie hothouse in here with his keyboard warriors typing furiously around the clock trying to make their fantasy come true.

I cant wait until the Iowa caucuses....64 days....when reality comes back to the democratic party and we can concentrate on defeating the evil republican party and its loathsome candidate in the general!

[Robbins]

8. before clinton supporters cheer

that just increases chances of president Trump

some liberals and prgressives don't like clinton and won't vote for her
Independents don't like her
she will get no crossover republican support

so say hello to complete GOP control In 2017.

[Hiraeth]

13. I am beginning to think you are right. I thought Hillary might get cross-over R women support but,

the R women I have talked with lately will throw in with Fiorina and -hate- (their word not mine) Hillary.

[DCBob]

23. Clinton is our strongest candidate against the GOP.

Hands down.

[AlbertCat]

29. Clinton is our strongest candidate against the GOP.

Then we're doomed.


But the national thing is a ways away.

[DCBob]

32. If GOP nominates an idiot, which is pretty good chance they will..

then I have no doubt we will win this thing. I think their best shot would have been with Bush but seems they have thrown him out like last week's leftovers.

[AlbertCat]

35. You underestimate....

.... the irrational hatred for Clinton and anything Clinton on the right.

They have been gearing up to fight her for over a decade now. They can't wait to get into it!

And I do not perceive Clinton as being an effective fighter. Certainly not as good as her husband was.

The Benghazi hearing thing may have lasted 11 hours.... but that fact plus the bozos doing it...forever it seems... was not hard to make look foolish.

[Metric System]

54. What about the irrational hatred for Pres. Obama? ANY Democrat will be hated.

[DCBob]

55. They will have irrational hatred for any strong Democratic who pushes Democratic principals.

As far a being an effective fighter.. the Benghazi interrogations proved she could handle their best shots with a smile for hours on end. She is an incredible fighter with tremendous determination, endurance and courage.

[The Blue Traveller]

59. Then why does Bernie have more women donors than Clinton?

Just wondering.

[DCBob]

61. Quality not quantity.

[bunnies]

64. WTF?! Clinton supporters are better quality women than Sanders supporters?

Care to elaborate? This female Sanders supporter is all ears.

[baldguy]

31. How about you? Will you pledge to vote for the Democratic nominee, whomever it is?

Or are you just playing the "some people say" game to voice your own opinion - thereby allowing Trump to gain advantage?

[still_one]

34. any liberal or progressive that won't vote for the Democratic nominee in THIS election is NO liberal

or progressive.

[seabeyond]

70. There are a lot of misogynists in this world. Doesn't mean women can't run because of it.

A lot of people weren't gonna vote for Obama. Do you have a clue why? Oh wait, because of racism. So lets only have white men to ensure our victories. Gore, Kerry. And I love Kerry, it was stolen, I know.

I think Clinton will have an easy win, a landslide. You think she will lose.

We will see.

OH, and this Clinton supporter is still cheering the poll even after reading your post.

YEA!!! Clinton, kick ass.

[kristopher]

71. If the R's jockey for candidate at convention, who will be nominee?

I can see the clown car disappearing and their real nominee (Romney?) stepping out of the shadows with Rubio as VP nom.

How do you think Hillary would fare against that ticket?

How would Sanders/Warren do?

[Agnosticsherbet]

76. No one in these polls will actively vote for Trump, if he is nominated

Trump Will lose all minorities and women by a wide margin in the general election.

I can not imagine which voting block would desert and vote to elect Trump.

[JaneyVee]

9. K AND R!

[highprincipleswork]

10. Not ending any of my support for Bernie

I think that posters like to post these polls in the hopes we will just give up our passion for Bernie, but even more so for what he represents.

The polls may give them comfort, or sometimes the polls may give pause, but the ultimate poll will be when the voters actually decide themselves.

And I'm working for Bernie till the last breath of his candidacy.

And if he and we manage to get enough people informed about him and enough people with him, there will be no need for anything else - he will have won.

And if he doesn't, well, we'll see what happens then.

[Robbins]

12. Of course it is

the point of these posts is to say to bernie supporters just give up.

we haven't had a single vote yet.

If Clinton was so inevitable why has the DNC fixed debates to favor her including airing them when few will have time to watch them

why is she snubing forums like moveon and BET?

why did she hint bernie is racist and sexist?

why did she try to smear her as wanting to end medicare and use gop talking points to attack him on taxes?

Clinton supporters keep saying Bernie has no chance.yet if that is true why would frontrunner even acknowledge his pressence In race.

[DCBob]

16. No.

I have no fantasy that Bernie supporters would just give up based on anything I post here.

[DCBob]

15. I wouldnt expect anyone to give up their support based on anything I post.

My main motivation is to offset some posts by Bernie supporters suggesting that Bernie is winning or gaining on Hillary.

This is just to set the record straight.. at least for the moment. Things might change down the road but I suspect Hillary has this.

Cheers.

[AlbertCat]

30. Besides.... it's not national for a while now.

It's all individual states at this point.

[Hiraeth]

14. still.casting.my.primary.vote.for.Bernie.

[99Forever]

17. Just another cheapass attempt to dishearten Sanders supporters.

Polls mean jackshit, ESPECIALLY national polls.

Primaries are state by state, and the REAL polls that COUNT are on election day.

[brooklynite]

18. if you prefer...

Leading and rising in Iowa:



Caught up in New Hampshire:



No contest and rising in South Carolina:



Not close in Florida:



Feel better?

[NurseJackie]

33. Excellent. (It makes ME feel better!)

Thanks for posting this!!

[Sancho]

65. Good job.

As we used to say in the South, "They put pictures on the cans for those who can't read."

That rally in NH yesterday may have made this a 50 state sweep...

[DCBob]

19. This is a cheapass reply.

[99Forever]

20. You get what you give.

You are what you are.

[DCBob]

21. Ditto.

[DFW]

24. In the immortal words of Han Solo.....

[DCBob]

25. I am sure the Hillary campaign is taking nothing for granted.

They clearly remember what happened 8 years ago. However, they must feel they are in much better situation now than then. Bernie is no Obama and Hillary is a smarter, more experienced candidate. I think the odds are good for a Hillary win.

[zalinda]

27. Maybe the primary, but not the GE. eom

[DCBob]

28. One step at a time.

Once its clear who the GOP clown is going to be she can fully turn her attention to the general.

[DFW]

36. I agree with you partially

As an undecided trying to look at this objectively, I'd say, yes, FOR NOW the odds are good for a Hillary win. But to say Bernie is no Obama is, in my opinion, only true on a superficial level.

Obviously they are quite different, but I think the the Hillary campaign will do themselves a disservice if they ignore the groundswell of Bernie Sanders' support. I'll grant you that it seems stuck in a rut at the present if all you look at is statistics, but they are a highly motivated campaign, and a big surge could suddenly overwhelm Hillary's campaign without them even realizing what hit them--hence my "don't get cocky" quote. Howard will be there warning them, but he knows that there is no guarantee they will listen. He is only an adviser, not the campaign manager. Unfortunately for us ALL, he is no longer DNC chairman, either.

Sanders, as the underdog, by definition won't be getting cocky. If he should surge beyond Hillary in a few meaningful polls, you'll see a bunch of nasty gloating on DU maybe, but I think Bernie will have enough seasoned people working on his campaign to know that the winds of political fortune change direction very quickly--in both directions. Hubris can be a fatal flaw to ANY candidate, not just the most obvious one. Some of his campaigners may not be seasoned veterans, but he certainly is.

[DCBob]

38. I agree with you partially also..

No doubt Bernie has tapped into something significant... 30% of likely Dem primary voters is nothing to sneeze at, but I dont see how he gets much beyond that number. He would need to get alot Hillary voters to change their minds. That would take a major incident of some sort to do that. Barring that Hillary is in very good position at the moment.

But I do agree the Hillary campaign and the Democratic Party should not ignore the Bernie phenomenon. Even if Bernie falls short this will have long term effects as many of his supporters are young and motivated.

[Vinca]

37. I wish I didn't feel so certain she could lose in the general.

[DCBob]

39. Stop believing the anti-Hillary non-sense you read on this site by Bernie supporters.

[Vinca]

40. Ummm . . . I'm a Bernie supporter and I follow politics closely.

I'm rather puzzled by the certainty of Hillary supporters that she can win. At this point I can see her losing rather easily. It's not that she isn't qualified, it's that she generates zero excitement. It'll be like a midterm election voter-wise and Dems will lose.

[DCBob]

43. Hillary is like an incumbent candidate.

You're not going to see the same level of excitement as an insurgent candidate like Bernie or Trump would generate. But that doesn't mean she can't win.. incumbents often do.

[Vinca]

44. And they often don't.

Only time will tell. I fear this is the year of the crazy and we're screwed no matter who the nominee is.

[DCBob]

45. Definitely crazy.

We shall see.

[Alfresco]

46. Hillary is winning and this is how we know it.

GO HILLARY!

[Cha]

48. Great news.. mahalo DCBob~

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton greeted supporters before speaking at a campaign rally in Boulder, Colo.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1273937

[DCBob]

53. Nice photo!

Thanks Cha! back to ya

[Cha]

57. You're Welcome!

[moobu2]

51. Looks like Bernie peaked too early.

[DCBob]

52. Premature peakalation

[seabeyond]

56. So many said, wait until people get to know him. Well,

They are getting to know him. As I got to know him, I chose to support others.

[Cha]

60. Yes, I remember that.. and then we had 2 debates.

[Bleacher Creature]

58. Kos has consistently pegged Bernie's ceiling at 30%

He's occasionally defied that by hitting 32 or 33 percent, but it's mostly playing out that way and I see no reason why anything would change.

I know a lot of Sanders supporters don't want to hear this, but I'm thinking this all could be over a lot earlier than people are expecting.

[DCBob]

62. Although 30% nationally is a decent number its not going win him many, if any, states.

It does appear he has stalled out and is having hard time finding new converts. I think most of the Hillary supporters are pretty much locked in by now. It would take some sort of major scandal or horrendous gaffe to change enough voters minds to make any difference by election day.

[Bleacher Creature]

67. It feels a lot like 2000.

Bill Bradley tried to position himself to the left of Al Gore, and a lot of people thought he'd be competitive. He got whacked in Iowa, lost by a closer (but still decisive) margin In NH, and was done a few weeks later.

[DCBob]

68. Yeah, I was hoping Bradley would have been our nominee.

He didnt connect in Iowa.

[Alfresco]

66. Nice... blue line climbing since October.

[seabeyond]

69. Kicking ass, taking names, .... Nt.

[jfern]

72. Of course when less smoothing favors Bernie, we won't hear a peep about it

[DCBob]

74. Less smoothing is usually the best option unless there are very few polls.

imo.

[jfern]

78. You never seem to talk about it when it's more favorable to Bernie

[DCBob]

79. Its seldom favorable to Bernie.

[jfern]

80. LOL, it's more favorable than the regular smooth about half the time

Basically it's just noisier. You love to cherry-pick it when it's more favorable to Hillary.

[DCBob]

81. Feel free to post those graphs that are "favorable" to Bernie.

I think you are allowed.

[Alfresco]

73. Early AM Kick

Primary polling data vs Wild in a bubble speculation.
Good Morning.

[Alfresco]

75. Afternoon Kick

For the data deniers.

[FloridaBlues]

77. Will you look at the trend lines . Good for Hillary

Sanders seems to have remained flat for at least a month can't seem to move past low30's nationally