CBS poll South Carolina (AA voters): HC: 82% BS: 14%

[DCBob]

Bernie has been working the African America voters in South Carolina for months and he still only polls at 14%. It appears black voters in the south "feel the cold" when listening to Sanders. It's looks like a lost cause for Senator Sanders. I think he needs to stick with his comfort zone in the far north.



https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4saf1r5i3g/SC_ForRelease_20151123.pdf

[Cali_Democrat]

1. African American voters are very smart and well-informed. nt

[DCBob]

3. Its going to be tough for Bernie to break through.

He's got alot of issues to overcome to even get started. Maybe not entirely his fault but a old white guy from a tiny white northern state... Why would any African American voter even be interested in the first place?

[1StrongBlackMan]

6. You're being anti-Sematic, here ...

suffice it to be ...

Maybe not entirely his fault but a old white jewish guy from a tiny white northern state... Why would any African American voter even be interested in the first place?

[DCBob]

8. I didn't mean it to be anti-semetic.. just being descriptive.

But I will take that out. However I think some voters in the south might feel less connected. I could be wrong.

[bravenak]

11. .

[1StrongBlackMan]

28. I know ...

I'm just closing a "look over there" door.

[BlueCaliDem]

53. Savvy, 1SBM.

[Romulox]

9. Wow. Just wow. Quoting for posterity.

Still time to edit?

DCBbob: Maybe not entirely his fault but a old white jewish guy from a tiny white northern state... Why would any African American voter even be interested in the first place?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=842681

[DCBob]

18. Identity politics is still a factor in this country.

No?

[Romulox]

19. So are anti-Semetic dog-whistles. nt

[DCBob]

20. Not at all what I meant.

This is a discussion board and all factors should be allowed to be discussed... even if uncomfortable for some.

[Romulox]

21. I know. I know. Just an innocent "mistake". (Glad you edited so quick!) nt

[DCBob]

23. Not a mistake but if some feel its inappropriate Im fine to leave it out.

Peace.

[1StrongBlackMan]

29. LOL ... See? n/t

[DCBob]

31. you called it!

[1StrongBlackMan]

35. LOL ... I have a professionally honed talent for recognizing patterns. n/t

[mythology]

66. You do realize that there have been a number

Of issues that have created divisions between Jewish and blacks right? There's a pretty good Wikipedia page on the subject.

That doesn't inherently mean blacks are anti-Semitic or that Jewish people are racist against blacks. It means that different political groups have different goals which sometimes come into conflict.

[oasis]

12. Wait until the AA community gets a load of Bernie eating SOUL FOOD

with Killer Mike. I tell you it's a game changer.

[bravenak]

17. Changed my mind!!! SOUL FOOD?

[Number23]

41. Okay, I literally laughed out loud. And especially at the superfluous all capping of SOUL FOOD

Do you think there would have been as much excitement and rapture if he and Killer had had tuna fish?

[upaloopa]

52. And calling Hillary Thacher and return to Reagan

was a winner too

[Number23]

39. But a half-literate DUer's Twitter feed shows OVERWHELMING black support!!/1one12

Which they tell us ALL OF THE TIME!!!111 Because we are incapable of speaking for our actual selves!!1one

[Cha]

40. Damn Straight! And all the "low information/name recognition" talk from BS fans ain't gonna

change that.

[lunamagica]

86. Yes, they are. eom

[Iliyah]

2. K & R

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. That's OK ... There's gonna be MILLIONs of working class voters ...

{read: angry white men} to make up the difference!

[DCBob]

5. HA!

That might be bit of a challenge in the South Carolina Dem Primary.

[1StrongBlackMan]

7. They're there and coming ... DU said so. n/t

[riversedge]

44. 'make it so'....

so says the Capt. to #1

[1StrongBlackMan]

46. ...

http://www.elyrics.net/read/d/disney-lyrics/when-you-wish-upon-a-star-lyrics.html

[bravenak]

10. I feel the~

[BainsBane]

13. That was my reaction after the last debate

Two debates and I feel like I've heard everything he has to say. He repeats himself so much.

[bravenak]

15. Thank you!! I just cannot make it through!

I felt bad but, I was like, omg, just shut up already!

[FloridaBlues]

27. Six debates is more than enough than candidates start repeating and repeating their stump speech

She has won the past 2 I expect she will make it a clean sweep in the remaining debates.

[NurseJackie]

14. #crashandbern ??

[bravenak]

16. #benedrylandbern?

[BlueCaliDem]

55. HAH!

[moobu2]

22. GOOooo Bernie!! GOoooo awayyyy!!!

Edited to add ---->

[bravenak]

30. .

[riversedge]

24. Hillary and her team have been working hard in SC--and it

paying off.

[NurseJackie]

32. She's smart and knows how to win.

[DCBob]

34. Taking nothing for granted.

Smart.

[riversedge]

83. yup--she and her team takes NOTHING for granted. They work hard.

[TSIAS]

25. This poll is funny

5 % actually think Hillary Clinton would be too hard on Wall Street, while 22 % think Sanders will take it easy with his Wall Street policies.

[riversedge]

26. Happy to have Cory Booker campaigning in SC with Team @HillaryforSC.

More photos and tweets at:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/110727477


Happy to have Cory Booker campaigning in SC with Team @HillaryforSC.


thank you Cory for helping Hillary. Good for America.



Hillary for SC Retweeted
Clay Middleton ?@claynmiddleton 1h1 hour ago

[NurseJackie]

33. Wow! Yes indeed. He's great.

VP material?

[MaggieD]

36. We'll owe southern Dems

And AA and Latinos a great debt of graditude when this is done. I heart them bright now!

[DCBob]

37. Indeed.. they are key to the strength of the Democratic party.

[Cha]

38. Get this KICKED.. thanks Bob!

[Betty Karlson]

42. That poll is bogus. Know why:

The 18 - 29 group was NOT sufficiently polled and excluded from the tabulations. We all know that Sanders has a huge support among youngsters.

All this poll tells us is that Clinton still has an advantage among older PoC voters in South-Carolina. Her "advantage" among younger PoC voters is... conveniently absent from the results.

[DCBob]

43. Wrong. Know why:

You don't understand polling methodology. The 18-29 age group had 50 individuals. They were included. Look at the totals for the other disaggregations. They match.

The * just mean too few to show an accurate % by candidate.

[Betty Karlson]

47. Which means they were underpolled. Which was my point all along. n/t

[DCBob]

48. Wrong again..

The methodology..

Respondents were selected for participation from available panel members to be representative of registered voters from each state in terms of age, race, and gender. A propensity score (based upon a case-control logistic regression including age, race, gender, education, born-again status, and party registration) was estimated for each respondent and responding panelists were post-stratifed upon propensity score deciles, and adjusted for differential recontact from the prior wave. A score for likelihood of voting was computed for each respondent based upon past turnout and self-reported likelihood of voting in the presidential primary.

Finally, the product of the base weights and turnout probabilities were raked to match parameters from past primary and general elections in the state drawn from exit polls, and aggregate parameters from the current voter file. The weights were trimmed to have a maximum value of seven.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/13/methodology-2016-cbs-news-battleground-tracker/

[Betty Karlson]

50. In other words: the poll presupposes that the composition of the

primary voters will be an exact copy of the one in 2008 and 2012 - or worse: turnout from 2010 and 2014 has been computed as well. That's when most of the current 18-29 segment had not yet achieved the right to vote. Which is why predicting the likeliness of their participation in the Democratic primaries is anyone's guess.

When a candidate garners inordinate amounts of youth supporters (more than past candidates did among the same segment) wouldn't that put the methodology of the prediction model into question?

[DCBob]

51. It called survey methodology. Its complex and clearly not an exact science.

If you think you can do it better then you should start you own polling firm.

[Betty Karlson]

56. So now we cannot even criticise the pollsters anymore?

Even when their methodology is based on guesstimates?

And when we criticise it we should start out own polling firms, or our criticism is invalid?

No: a faulty and shaky methodology is faulty and shaky whether I direct a polling firm or not.

And calling something "complex" is hardly a rebuttal of the argument that a specific segment of the population was quite possibly underpolled.

[DCBob]

67. You can do whatever you want..

Don't be surprised when you're criticized back.

[upaloopa]

54. You are repeating that bull shit Thom Hartman meme

I heard him saying that the other day just before he read all the click bait poll results.

[Betty Karlson]

57. Profanities don't make for eloquent rebuttals.

They are at best an admission of weakness.

[Major Hogwash]

62. True that.

She's probably most popular among the 60+ crowd of white people in SC.
But, this is a CBS poll, so who can believe them anymore?

[bravenak]

64. She is most popular among Democrats.

[William769]

45. Kick & highly recommended!

[MoonRiver]

49. PoC just don't like him.

nuff said

[Betty Karlson]

59. Except his support among PoC doubled in the last month.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/128078422

nuff said.

[bravenak]

61. That is barely any support.

[Betty Karlson]

81. 1/3 of PoC is barely any support?

Don't let the PoC find out that Clinton's camp considers 1/3 of them negligeable.

[MoonRiver]

65. Ok, I'll give you that.

Still half Hillary's support.

[Betty Karlson]

82. At this rate, he could be in the lead by the time the SC primary rolls by.

Personally, I hope he will be. His analysis of the parameters for police/ prison/ sentencing reform are what I would like to see become the blueprint for policy changes. No offense to Mrs. Clinton, but she is sometimes a bit timid when it comes to taking positions and making decisions (her long evolution on GLBT rights comes to mind), and we need a couple of drastic and decisive reforms if the epidemic of sudden deaths among PoC is to be stopped.

[NCTraveler]

58. The character assasination of Clinton from the Sanders campaign isn't going to help.

No one knows better then POC that character assassination is the first line of resort to racists. They know it is equally true for sexists. Sanders might want to pull his surrogates back a little from their blatantly sexist rhetoric. The tactic is too well know between the two mentioned communities.

[bravenak]

63. .

[BlueCaliDem]

60. The firewall strengthens...

It's becoming impenetrable for Sanders.

[NurseJackie]

69. You're correct. Things aren't looking good for him.

In spite of all the exuberance and optimism displayed here.

[JaneyVee]

68. K AND R!

[TheFarseer]

70. who cares?

Would you vote for Ted Cruz if he was winning? You're not going to bully me into voting for someone I don't like in a primary and when you post these polls that is what you are doing. I'll vote for who I like and if enough people vote their conscience he will win. Stop with the bullying and let the primary process work.

[DCBob]

71. Who's bullying?? What's Ted Cruz got to do with anything??

This is a discussion board about the politics. The fact that Bernie cant connect with AA voters is a significant issue that should be discussed. If you are not interested in the topic then go somewhere else. There are plenty of bash Hillary threads that you might enjoy more.

[TheFarseer]

72. I certainly hope Ted Cruz never out polls our candidate

Or you'll be forced to vote for him. You seem pretty obsessed with voting for the winner and telling everyone else to give up.

[DCBob]

74. You are confused.

[MoonRiver]

87. Reality is tough to handle when you're losing. I understand.

[MaggieD]

73. Maybe Killer Mike can turn the ship around for Bernie.

[oasis]

75. Keep on truckin'

[RandySF]

76. But, Bernie ate SOUL FOOD with Killer Mike!!!!

[Liberal_in_LA]

80. Lol

[cantbeserious]

77. Polls Are Rigged By The Establishment - Don't Believe The Polls

eom

[RandySF]

78. The go-to explanation for anything that doesn't go Bernie's way.

[cantbeserious]

79. Voting Machines Are Rigged - Polls Can Be Rigged

eom

[lunamagica]

89. Said Rmoney's camp

[lunamagica]

88. Said Rmonney's camp

[Historic NY]

90. Well perhaps Unskewpolls.com might be helpful....

to adjust the polls to what your feeling. They had the best methodology in the business.

[Walk away]

84. If only rudeness and bullying counted instead of votes....

Bernie supporters might get him over the top!

[NurseJackie]

85. LOL

[SunSeeker]

91. Thanks, DCBob. I really enjoyed reading this thread.

[DCBob]

96. I have enjoyed too.

Cheers!

[BootinUp]

92. So if you're losing a demographic by 68%

try and recast yourself as the second coming of their hero, right Bernie?

[DCBob]

95. Sounds like a "Hail Mary"...

and Bernie's not even Catholic!

[Todays_Illusion]

93. I am suspicious only because this is the same organization that is censoring the debate video.

[Alfresco]

94. Bernie is not very good at retail politics

and it shows.