Hillary Clinton Is Not 'Inevitable.' She's Just the 'Most Probable.'

[MineralMan]

Right now, her probability of being the nominee is 94%. Her probability of becoming president is 58%.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

That's not inevitability. It's probability. And those numbers just keep going up as we get closer to the first primary election.

Nobody's actually "inevitable." Anything could happen, but the probability numbers make it look increasingly unlikely that she'll do anything but win.

I know that I, for one, have never said she was "inevitable." I wouldn't do that, but I sure like her odds.

[upaloopa]

1. And it is not inevitable that Bernie will not be the nominee but it is most probable he will not be.

I don't get why we have threads like the inevitability thread. It's just another put down.

Hey Bernie supporters instead of that shit, tell me how Bernie gets from here to

Single payer
Free college tuition
$15 per hour
Paid family leave
Increased Social Security benefits
etc., etc.

Fifteen dollars per hour less additional $3 dollars withheld = $12 per hour.

[MineralMan]

2. It's not looking promising for Bernie, to be quite frank.

I know that's disappointing for many people, but the polls seem to have stabilized, and I'm not seeing a path that leads to a Sanders win. Not seeing it at all.

[Kentonio]

6. That's because you're not looking at the right things

He has made up significant ground in some vitally important areas in the last month, but Hillary's post first debate/Benghazi jump muddied the waters. Go look at his increases amongst women voters, AA voters and voters under 50 and then you'll see exactly why Sanders supporters are still confident.

The real game begins after xmas, and if his momentum keeps building until then it becomes a very different race.

[MineralMan]

8. I'm looking at a wide range of things, and have

been for some time. I'll keep looking, I assure you.

Your post contains no data or links. It looks more like a hopeful opinion than information to me. If you'd like to add some actual data or links, I'll go look at those, too.

[Kentonio]

9. Someone posted a nice illustration in one of the poll threads

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Citation please

You are referring to one poll...

Other polls don't show those gains, ergo:



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

HRC 's share of the Democratic vote hasn't really moved in three years. That's pretty remarkable...

And the margins of errors for sub samples of polls with three or four hundred respondents are huge.

[MADem]

15. The gubmint giveth, and the gubmint taketh away, I guess....

Sure sounds good while it's being rolled out there, though, dunnit?

[virtualobserver]

3. why do you believe that predictwise traders can accurately predict anything?

[MineralMan]

5. Why do you not?

I don't know. Looking at current polling aggregates, their prediction look supportable to me.

[virtualobserver]

10. I don't disbelieve them.... as a measure of the opinion of a certain group of people in the society.

I don't believe or disbelieve the polls either.

Bernie has a unique group supporting him, and polls won't catch his support
if they misread the number of people in that group who will actually vote for him.

I will monitor predictwise during the primary season....especially during Iowa and NH.

[firebrand80]

4. Bernie is going to president of Twitter

[BootinUp]

7. Completely agree.

There have been times when I didn't word it as carefully, but all I have ever tried to communicate about the race was that in my opinion that barring anything unusual happening she appeared to have the nomination in hand. I came to that opinion shortly after Biden announced he would not be running and seeing polling trends strongly in her favor.

[lunamagica]

12. That's right, Mineral Man. And I have no doubt that Hillary would be the first one to agree with you

That's why we see her working hard, campaigning, day after day.

She's not taking anything for granted.

[peacebird]

13. As your sig says, your opinion only, and I dearly hope your opinion is proven wrong

[femmedem]

14. Always appreciate your fairness and civility.

I'm a Bernie supporter and recognize the odds--although I do see some good trends--but plan on continuing to advocate for him as long as his odds aren't zero.

I'm sure Hillary's supporters would do the same for their candidate.

So long as we aren't hateful towards one another, nothing wrong with that.

[Alfresco]

16. 94% Probability

I am liking those odds.
Would that be called a sure thing in Vegas?

[Alfresco]

17. I think it is at 93% now.