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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 01:36 AM Nov 2015

Whoa. Clinton hits highest odds in 2015 for nomination: 94%

Markets move quick, so her numbers could change over the life of this thread, but, as of 12:30 am, she has hit an unheard of peak.

Chance at nomination:

HRC - 94%
BS - 5%
MOM - 1%

Chance at presidency:

HRC - 59%
Rubio - 19%
Trump - 8%
Cruz - 5%
Bush - 3%
BS - 3%

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

That is pretty remarkable.

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Whoa. Clinton hits highest odds in 2015 for nomination: 94% (Original Post) Godhumor Nov 2015 OP
Wow. SunSeeker Nov 2015 #1
Are there any good statistical poll analysis like what 538 used to do BootinUp Nov 2015 #2
538 will do them next year. GE options based on polls are meaningless right now Godhumor Nov 2015 #4
Damn. bravenak Nov 2015 #3
Yeah, and from the past few days it is clear she is now prepping for the GE Godhumor Nov 2015 #5
I was thinking the same. That she is already in GE mode and things are about to get interesting. bravenak Nov 2015 #6
My prediction remains Yupster Nov 2015 #9
I still think Bernie wins VT but those Primary odds are astonishing DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #16
Well, I think she would make a fine president Xipe Totec Nov 2015 #7
Thank You! Steven the Somnolent Nov 2015 #10
Thank you--and I agree, she will do just fine as President --and so riversedge Nov 2015 #12
Right now she can beat the Republicans that are the top 3. mr_liberal Nov 2015 #8
I'd place that bet. Alfresco Nov 2015 #11
Holy shit ismnotwasm Nov 2015 #13
Hillary will be the winner. Bernie will be the loser. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author MoonRiver Nov 2015 #15
We just need 6 more pecentage points. Alfresco Nov 2015 #17

BootinUp

(47,165 posts)
2. Are there any good statistical poll analysis like what 538 used to do
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 01:47 AM
Nov 2015

for the GE? 59% sounds great, just would like to see some data on it.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
4. 538 will do them next year. GE options based on polls are meaningless right now
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 02:03 AM
Nov 2015

Predictive markets behave differently than what Nate will look at.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
5. Yeah, and from the past few days it is clear she is now prepping for the GE
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 02:04 AM
Nov 2015

Heard to believe we're still 2.5 months away from the first primary.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
6. I was thinking the same. That she is already in GE mode and things are about to get interesting.
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 02:06 AM
Nov 2015

After the voting starts I think many will be surprised at just how overwhelmingly she is winning.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
16. I still think Bernie wins VT but those Primary odds are astonishing
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 10:20 AM
Nov 2015

The G E odds are pretty astonishing too...

Xipe Totec

(43,890 posts)
7. Well, I think she would make a fine president
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 03:15 AM
Nov 2015

Not my first choice this time around, but a fine choice nevertheless.

I was a strong supporter of HRC the last time around, but Obama won the nomination and he's made a fine president.

This time around I like Bernie even better, and I will support him for the nomination.

But whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have my full unflinching enthusiastic support.

 
10. Thank You!
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 05:42 AM
Nov 2015

I've been more than a little frightened by Sanders supporters stating here that they will absolutely, positively NOT vote for Clinton if she's the nominee. Do they want a Trump or Cruz Administration???

riversedge

(70,242 posts)
12. Thank you--and I agree, she will do just fine as President --and so
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 09:04 AM
Nov 2015

glad to hear you will support the nominee--as I will--whoever it is.

 

mr_liberal

(1,017 posts)
8. Right now she can beat the Republicans that are the top 3.
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 04:47 AM
Nov 2015

Thats why I think her odds are so high. She would easily beat Trump or Cruz and I think Rubio fairly handily as well.

Bush would be close, but he is fading.

She could lose to Christie or Kasich imo. If one of them move to the top or if even Bush does I think the odds will change and it will be closer to 50%.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
14. Hillary will be the winner. Bernie will be the loser.
Sun Nov 22, 2015, 09:56 AM
Nov 2015

It's as simple as that! (But we need to be diligent about middle school voter fraud and voters who go into the booth and click multiple times and tweet their votes!)

Response to NurseJackie (Reply #14)

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