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Related: About this forumPolitifact smacks down Bernie Sanders on climate change and terrorism
Fact-checking Bernie Sanders' comments on climate change and terrorismBy Linda Qiu on Monday, November 16th, 2015 at 4:38 p.m.
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"Absolutely. In fact, climate change is directly related to the growth of terrorism," Sanders said on Nov. 14. "If we do not get our act together and listen to what the scientists say, you’re gonna see countries all over the world — this is what the CIA says — they’re going to be struggling over limited amounts of water, limited amounts of land to grow their crops, and you’re going to see all kinds of international conflict."
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Our ruling
Sanders said, "Climate change is directly related to the growth of terrorism."
We couldn’t find any evidence of a "direct" relationship between climate change and terrorism, though many reports have noted an indirect link. There are, of course, many other factors that contribute to terrorism, including religious and ethnic tensions and political repression.
We rate Sanders' claim Mostly False.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/16/bernie-s/fact-checking-bernie-sanders-comments-climate-chan/
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NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Doesn't he have some sort of internal polling and test-groups that he uses? How did this pass muster?
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)It actually supports much of what Bernie said and quotes the sources he got the information from. The reason the article gives him a "mostly false" is because he said climate change is a "direct" link when he should have said it's an "indirect" link.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Is that Climate Change *will* have an effect on terrorism in the future. If nothing else please accept that. It's more important than a political campaign.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)It was part of my MS research a couple years ago.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)President Obama says climate change increases the likelihood of war and terrorism.
In an interview with The New York Times's Thomas Friedman, which will be featured in the final episode of Showtime's climate series "Years of Living Dangerously" on Monday, Obama voiced grave concern over how global warming can be a national security issue for the United States.
Instability brought on by climate change, Obama said, is what creates an environment for terrorism.
"They don’t have a lot of margin for error, and that has national security implications. When people are hungry, when people are displaced, when there are a lot of young people, particularly young men, who are drifting without prospects for the future, the fertility of the soil for terrorism ends up being significant," Obama said, "and it can have an impact on us."
He also said that climate change can lead to wars by fostering conflict over resources.
"Entire countries can be finding themselves unable to feed themselves, and the potential incidence of conflict that arises out of that — that gets your attention," Obama said. "It’s not just the actual disasters that might arise, it is the accumulating stresses that are placed on a lot of different countries and the possibility of war, conflict, refugees, displacement that arise from a changing climate.”
When Friedman noted the four-year drought in Syria, which spurred the uprising there, Obama said it is a sign of what happens when countries "are just barely hanging on."
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/208634-obama-ties-between-climate-and-terrorism-ripe-in-poorer-countries
zappaman
(20,606 posts)By no means a major one, but it is something to consider.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)He's looking down the road on this one, and that's exactly what's been missing in Middle East foreign policy for the last century.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)
earthside
(6,960 posts)Sanders, O'Malley, Pres. Obama, Sec. Kerry are supporting the science and research that show a link between climate change and political disruption.
And who cares what Politifact says?
The Link Between Climate Change And ISIS Is Real
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/23/3683536/omalley-climate-change-isis/
Researchers Link Syrian Conflict to a Drought Made Worse by Climate Change
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-caused-by-climate-change.html
Hot Zone
Is climate change destabilizing Iraq?
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/06/isis_water_scarcity_is_climate_change_destabilizing_iraq.html
Hillary is the 'conservative' Democratic candidate so her supporters parroting the Tea Party on this point is not surprising.
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)Hurricane Sandy ripped off my roof, took two trees down and almost crushed my garage. I still have my duct tape and rolls of plastic for when the sleeper cells in the US were going to use chemical weapons on us all after 9/11........... I never wake up thinking am I going to be killed by ISIS but I worry who will be shot by the police, black, brown or white.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)But seriously, it definitely will eventually be a factor.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Racism will all be over if we have economic equality?
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)If he would have used a different tense.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)OK, Bernie's statement MAY be a slight exaggeration about how "directly" related the
two are today; yet that doesn't take a whole lot away from his argument, as it's only
a matter of time -- and not that much time given current trends -- that the obvious indirect
relationship will become VERY direct, and indisputably so. .. i.e. when it's too late.
BootinUp
(47,156 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Last edited Mon Nov 16, 2015, 09:37 PM - Edit history (1)
Sooner rather than later.
You can gloat re how it's not "politically expedient" all you like. Have at it.
I for one am grateful Bernie is raising awareness on this while there's still time.
BootinUp
(47,156 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)I'm glad to see it finally being admitted.
BootinUp
(47,156 posts)I don't give a shit.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)
WIProgressive88
(314 posts)TM99
(8,352 posts)When O'Malley said it in July, Politifact rated it as mostly true.
O’Malley argued that "the cascading effects" of climate change contributed to the rise of ISIS
The O’Malley campaign referred us to a credible March 2015 study that supports his point. According to the study, a drought in Syria in the 2000s displaced millions of refugees and added to discontent that eventually erupted into war. While the study does not mention ISIS by name, the authors say O’Malley is simply taking their argument one step further.
Experts agreed that the drought, spurred by climate change, was one of many factors that led to the Syrian conflict. O’Malley’s phrasing suggests he understands this and is careful not overstate it.
We rate his claim Mostly True.
So which is it oh unbiased source of political fact checking. Is it only true when anyone but Sanders says it?
And yet here is more evidence that it is indeed true --
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_helped_spark_syrian_civil_war.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/10/drought-helped-caused-syrias-war-will-climate-change-bring-more-like-it/
http://www.nationofchange.org/2015/11/15/sanders-correctly-rattles-sabers-at-the-climate-change-enemy-part-1/
Politifact fucked up big time on this one.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)The CIA warns us about this as well. Bernie's not talking in the present when he brings this up. He's looking down the road.
rurallib
(62,416 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)It points out, and supports, every argument Bernie has given on the subject. The reason they called it "mostly false" is because Bernie used the word 'direct' when he should have used 'indirect'. That's it. This doesn't at all invalidate the point Bernie was trying to make.
Turn CO Blue
(4,221 posts)and as stated above the false rating is entirely about semantics - indirect or indirect - security or terrorism.
Within five years people will be blowing other people to bits over access to fresh water due to its lack because of climate change - there will be water terrorists - not just over faith or tribalism or imperialism or whatever - but over WATER!!!
Good Grief, I wish Al Gore were running.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)With all the billions that the Oligarchy has at their disposal, this doesn't surprise me at all.
Be brave and fight the corrupt system with us. Goldman-Sachs really doesn't love you.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)We had this exact conversation about Martin O'Malley's statement a few weeks ago and they rated it TRUE.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/23/martin-omalley/fact-checking-link-between-climate-change-and-isis/
politifact = losers
plus5mace
(140 posts)This is not a controversial statement on our side. If Hillary had said it, none of her supporters would criticize her for it. But because Bernie is the man standing between Hillary and what is rightfully hers, everything he says and does becomes not only wrong, but hilariously ill informed and foolish. It's a strategy that's doomed to make them hypocrites when Hillary turns around and makes a similar statement in the future. That would bother me, but I guess people have different tolerances for hypocrisy.
azmom
(5,208 posts)The number one threat to national security. If we don't come to grips with that fact, we won't even have a nation to protect.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)Drought in Syria has contributed to instability
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders used the terrorist attacks in Paris to call for action to address climate change at a primary debate Saturday. But, while the plea attracted ridicule across the political spectrum, many academics and national security experts agree that climate change contributes to an uncertain world where terrorism can thrive.
U.S. military officials refer to climate change as a “threat multiplier” that takes issues like terrorism that would pose a threat to national security and exacerbates the damage they can cause. A 2014 Department of Defense report identifies climate change as the root of government instability that leads to widespread migration, damages infrastructure and leads to the spread of disease. “These gaps in governance can create an avenue for extremist ideologies and conditions that foster terrorism,” the report says.
The parallels between the situation described in the government report and the situation on the ground in Syria are striking. The worst drought on record in the Middle Eastern country has created instability for farmers and threatened the food supply. At the same time, the government has struggled to hold on to power across the country in the face of militant groups and millions of Syrians have fled their homeland.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)During the Democratic presidential debate on Saturday night, CBS moderator John Dickerson brought up the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and then asked Bernie Sanders if he still believes climate change is our greatest national security threat. (Sanders had said as much in a previous debate.)
Sanders didn't back down:
Absolutely. In fact, climate change is directly related to the growth of terrorism. And if we do not get our act together and listen to what the scientists say, you're going to see countries all over the world — this is what the CIA says — they're going to be struggling over limited amounts of water, limited amounts of land to grow their crops, and you're going to see all kinds of international conflict.
Much snickering ensued on Twitter, especially over that bolded sentence, with the prevailing sentiment that Sanders's argument was self-evidently silly.
I'd say Sanders' reply was a little oversimplified — but the outraged reaction to it was absurd. The truth about climate change and conflict is more complex and nuanced than a short sound bite can allow, but it's foolish to dismiss the entire topic out of hand.
Sanders was arguably going too far when he said that climate change is "directly related" to the growth of terrorism. It's hard to find any climate or security experts who would make that strong a claim. The linkages tend to be more indirect, as we'll see in the case of Syria.
But he's perfectly right to call climate change a security issue. What experts will often say — and what the Pentagon has been saying — is that global warming has the potential to aggravate existing tensions and security problems, by, for instance, making droughts or water shortages more likely in some areas. That doesn't mean war or terrorism will be inevitable in a hotter world; climate will typically be just one of many factors involved. But global warming could very well increase the risk of violence, which is why many military officials take it so seriously.
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Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)As the Obama administration undertakes a highly public, multilateral campaign to degrade and destroy the militant jihadists known as ISIS, ISIL and the Islamic State, many in the West remain unaware that climate played a significant role in the rise of Syria's extremists. A historic drought afflicted the country from 2006 through 2010, setting off a dire humanitarian crisis for millions of Syrians. Yet the four-year drought evoked little response from Bashar al-Assad's government. Rage at the regime's callousness boiled over in 2011, helping to fuel the popular uprising. In the ensuing chaos, ISIS stole onto the scene, proclaimed a caliphate in late June and accelerated its rampage of atrocities including the recent beheadings of three Western civilians.
While ISIS threatens brutal violence against all who dissent from its harsh ideology, climate change menaces communities (less maliciously) with increasingly extreme weather. Most of us perceive these threats as unrelated. We recycle water bottles and buy local produce to keep the earth livable for our children -- not to ward off terrorists. Yet environmental stressors and political violence are connected in surprising ways, sparking questions about collective behavior. If more Americans knew how glacial melt contributes to catastrophic weather in Afghanistan -- potentially strengthening the Taliban and imperiling Afghan girls who want to attend school -- would we drive more hybrids and use millions fewer plastic bags? How would elections and legislation be influenced?
The drought that preceded the current conflict in Syria fits into a pattern of increased dryness in the Mediterranean and Middle East, for which scientists hold climate change partly responsible. Affecting 60 percent of Syria's land, drought ravaged the country's northeastern breadbasket region; devastated the livelihoods of 800,000 farmers and herders; and knocked two to three million people into extreme poverty. Many became climate refugees, abandoning their homes and migrating to already overcrowded cities. They forged temporary settlements on the outskirts of areas like Aleppo, Damascus, Hama and Homs. Some of the displaced settled in Daraa, where protests in early 2011 fanned out and eventually ignited a full-fledged war.
Drought did not singlehandedly spawn the Syrian uprising, but it stoked simmering anger at Assad's dictatorship. This frustration further destabilized Syria and carved out a space in which ISIS would thrive.
The connection between climate change and conflict continues to evade mainstream recognition, despite reports by think tanks, academics and even military experts. A leading panel of retired generals and admirals, the CNA Corporation Military Advisory Board, recently labeled the impacts of climate change "catalysts for conflict" in vulnerable regions. The Pentagon concluded similarly in this year's Quadrennial Defense Review that the effects of climate change are "threat multipliers," enabling terrorism and other violence by aggravating underlying societal problems.
There is no shortage of nations whose political stability and climate are both vulnerable.
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Owl
(3,642 posts)
I've been arguing with a Hillary supporter Facebook friend about this all weekend.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)immoderate
(20,885 posts)It's like it LITERALLY blows me away. See what I did there?
--imm
MisterP
(23,730 posts)to do with IS, nor that giving even more funds and arms to IS facades could ever get the materiel to IS
denying that the desiccating Mideast could ever drive IS should be a piece of cake
Autumn
(45,096 posts)Instability brought on by climate change creates an environment for terrorism. The two are directly related. So I rate politifact's claim to be horse shit.
