UMass Poll: Hillary 63% Bernie 29%

[Cali_Democrat]

http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/new-umass-poll-finds-donald-trump-and-ben

[72DejaVu]

1. It's educational!

Oops, now the Bernistas will throw the Pixies under the bus.

Sorry.

[Bubzer]

36. I don't buy it. But apearantly hillary did.

Polls that miraculously supporting hillary in the face of overwhelming instant poll after instant poll, favoring Bernie Sanders, are suspect at best, after the following posts.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/128074296
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251810548

[72DejaVu]

52. Yeah, OK Mitt.

Whatever.

[Codeine]

39. My bern's got a little machine. nt

[MADem]

2. Fascinating detail, there!!! 78% think she has the best chance of beating the GOP!!!

The poll also surveyed 381 likely Democratic primary voters, and found that Sen. Bernie Sanders is struggling to gain any traction against Hillary Clinton. Clinton was the top choice among 63 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, compared to just 29 percent for Sanders.
Democrats also view Clinton as having the best chance of winning the general election, with 78 percent seeing her as the most competitive candidate to take on the Republican nominee, compared to just 19 percent for Sanders.
“Even many of Sanders’ supporters recognize that Clinton has the best chance of winning in November, and that is obviously a key part of her campaign juggernaut,” Schaffner concluded.
YouGov interviewed 1,224 respondents who were then matched down to a nationally representative sample of 1,000 American adults. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. Likely voters are respondents who said that they would definitely or probably vote in their state’s presidential primary or caucus. Confirmed registered likely voters are those likely voters who the UMass Poll directors were able to match to voter files as active registered voters. The margin of error among Republican likely primary voters is 6.4 percent, and the margin of error among Democratic likely primary voters is 6.0 percent.

[Agschmid]

5. Bernie has work to do to turn this around if he wants to win.

democrats also view Clinton as having the best chance of winning the general election, with 78 percent seeing her as the most competitive candidate to take on the Republican nominee, compared to just 19 percent for Sanders.

Wow.

[Laser102]

44. Bernie did such a good job moving Hillary to the left.

This is what he wanted right? He wanted to make sure she was up to the job and would be able to defeat the Republicans, right? We owe Bernie a debt of gratitude for the awesome candidate Hillary has become.

[Agschmid]

45. That's what NPR said today.

[Cha]

14. Hillary does have the best chance of beating GOP. She's the smartest with much more experience

where it counts.

[asuhornets]

31. Absolutely

She is definitely more qualified. I can't wait to start calling her Madame President.

[Fast Walker 52]

37. she also has huge negatives, and is known for being too cute with words

like Bill, and for being a warhawk.

[Cha]

40. Her positives far outway her negatives.. & people have way with twisting words. Hillary's the best

choice.

[72DejaVu]

53. Oh no, she's like Bill!

Two time presidential election winner Bill.

[Agschmid]

3. Wow.

Especially the Repub information.

[moobu2]

4. So it's going to be

Hillary Clinton Vs. Donald trump or Ben Carson....lol

[brooklynite]

61. ...more likely Ted Cruz (crazy) vs Marco Rubio (establishment)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. KICK AND RECOMMEND

[JaneyVee]

7. Is this a MA poll or National?

I don't want to download.

[NurseJackie]

13. Last paragraph ...

YouGov interviewed 1,224 respondents who were then matched down to a nationally representative sample of 1,000 American adults. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. Likely voters are respondents who said that they would definitely or probably vote in their state’s presidential primary or caucus. Confirmed registered likely voters are those likely voters who the UMass Poll directors were able to match to voter files as active registered voters. The margin of error among Republican likely primary voters is 6.4 percent, and the margin of error among Democratic likely primary voters is 6.0 percent.

[JaneyVee]

16. Ok. Thought it was a pdf download. Thanks.

[Agschmid]

15. National.

Pretty small, but sounds well sourced sample.

[book_worm]

8. Poll says that even Sanders voters "recognize that Clinton has best chance of winning"

“Even many of Sanders’ supporters recognize that Clinton has the best chance of winning in November, and that is obviously a key part of her campaign juggernaut,” Schaffner concluded.

[sheshe2]

9. Woot!

Thank you Cali!!!!

[BootinUp]

10. Who's got the unskewed results?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. This cracks me up

[NurseJackie]

12. Makes me want to open a bottle of wine and celebrate!

(Oh, who am I kidding? I don't actually NEED an excuse... but this one is as good of one as any!)

[Agschmid]

17. The box wine is already tapped :)

[riversedge]

18. Enjoy

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Happy

[Agnosticsherbet]

20. “Even many of Sanders’ supporters recognize that Clinton has the best chance of winning in November

and that is obviously a key part of her campaign juggernaut,” Schaffner concluded.

Now that is a fascinating detail.

[Ed Suspicious]

22. She is because we say she is. We say she is because she is.

She is because we say she is. We say she is because she is. She is because we say shit is. We say she is because she is. We say she is because she is. She is because we say she is. We say she is because she is. She is because we say shit is. We say she is because she is. etc.

[Agnosticsherbet]

23. Just keep repeating the same tired arguments,

Again
And again

[lunamagica]

21. WOOOHOOO!!!

[SoapBox]

24. Trump, Carson...Trump, Carson...

Uh huh...99% of the article is about the Pukes.

Tossed in at the end, some "causal" comments about Bernie and HRC...

“Even many of Sanders’ supporters recognize that Clinton has the best chance of winning in November, and that is obviously a key part of her campaign juggernaut,” Schaffner concluded."

Well Schaffner...you are wrong! Where are the hard numbers to support your comment?

Comments like this are laughable because they are clueless how deep his support goes.

Gee, I thought it was going to be another PPP poll paid for by David Brock.

[Lordquinton]

27. 381 out of 1000 is NOT representative of the nation

Plus it's an internet poll, we know how scientific those are.

[SunSeeker]

34. It was representaive of the nation. And it was not a self-selecting "internet poll."

YouGov interviewed 1,224 respondents who were then matched down to a nationally representative sample of 1,000 American adults. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. Likely voters are respondents who said that they would definitely or probably vote in their state’s presidential primary or caucus. Confirmed registered likely voters are those likely voters who the UMass Poll directors were able to match to voter files as active registered voters. The margin of error among Republican likely primary voters is 6.4 percent, and the margin of error among Democratic likely primary voters is 6.0 percent.

http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/new-umass-poll-finds-donald-trump-and-ben

[Lordquinton]

60. Out of 1224 only ~380 were Democratic?

That number should be a red enough flag.

[SunSeeker]

63. No, it was out of 1000, and it was 381 "likely" Dem voters.

And 318 likely Republican voters out of that same 1000 (not out of 1224).

How many likely Dem voters should they have gotten out of 1000 in your opinion?

[SunSeeker]

33. Here's the "hard numbers" you apparently skipped over:

Democrats also view Clinton as having the best chance of winning the general election, with 78 percent seeing her as the most competitive candidate to take on the Republican nominee, compared to just 19 percent for Sanders.

http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/new-umass-poll-finds-donald-trump-and-ben

[tritsofme]

25. Meh...still not particularly sold on YouGov online polls

It will be interesting to see how they perform this cycle.

[Beacool]

28. I'm not surprised.

In 2008 despite Kerry, Kennedy and Patrick endorsing Obama, Hillary won MA by almost 10%. MA is Clinton country.

[Cosmic Kitten]

29. WOOO!!! Hillary has 240 *fans*!!!

240 folks picked Hillary!!!
*winning*

She IS INEVITABLE!
240 people in a poll said so!!!!

Sample:
318 Likely Republican Primary Voters
381 Likely Democratic Primary Voters

Margin of Error:
6.4 for Republican Likely Primary Voters
6.0 for Democratic Likely Primary Voter

YouGov interviewed 1,224 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 American adults. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identication, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratied sampling from the full 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public le). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2010 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identication were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and ideology. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratied according to these deciles. Likely voters are respondents who said that they would denitely or probably vote in their state's presidential primary or caucus. Confrmed registered likely voters are those likely voters who we were able to match to voter les as active registered voters

Geez that's some kinda massaging of the data!

[JaneyVee]

38. Is polling hard for you to understand?

[SidDithers]

46. Apparently, it is...nt

Sid

[riversedge]

43. Madam President has the mojo--> Together we will SHATTER the glass ceiling with @HillaryClinton

Together we will SHATTER the glass ceiling with @HillaryClinton ! @HillaryforSC #ImWithHer
8:12 PM - 14 Nov 2015 · Myrtle Beach, SC, United States

[MaggieD]

30. It's not a clickbait poll

.... so it means nothing. LOL!

[SunSeeker]

32. K & R

[DCBob]

35. A Mass-ive lead!

[riversedge]

41. Good one.

[Agschmid]

42. Kick.

[litlbilly]

47. Enough with the polls already. We all know they are mostly bunk simply be looking at those numbers.

Here's my take on the so called bogus online polls. If so may Hillary suporters were online at the time, why didn't they just vote? Bernie was in the 80's across the board. I think those polls mean more at this point because these are different times. I also believe there are far more of us to prove those polls come next November.

[Godhumor]

49. Literally everything you wrote is wrong

But please proceed.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Please don't try to reason somebody out of something they didn't reason themselves into.

EOM

[72DejaVu]

57. People who are confident that they are winning don't ned to try to stack the deck.

[riversedge]

59. Together we will SHATTER the glass ceiling with @HillaryClinton !

Silvina Alarcon @salarcon1

Together we will SHATTER the glass ceiling with @HillaryClinton ! @HillaryforSC #ImWithHer
8:12 PM - 14 Nov 2015 · Myrtle Beach, SC, United States

[Cha]

62. Stay in denial.

[tartan2]

48. So how much did that poll cost Hillary?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. No need to be sarcastic...

So how much did that poll cost Hillary?

-tartan2

Save your sarcasm for when Hillary dispatches of the Vermont independent in the New Hampshire primary, effectively ends the race, and returns him to the hamlet from which he comes.




Before you respond, think, because I always think at least three steps ahead,

[pnwmom]

54. Hardy har har.

Not.

[RandySF]

51. Bernie's going to win all 50 states, damnit

My friends on Reddit told me so.

[Thinkingabout]

55. K & R

[MineralMan]

56. Right on target, and corresponds with

other recent polls. This is the new reality.