Mid-campaign polling helps the campaign; it does not predict a winner
Is mid-campaign polling important?
Just ask Jeb Bush. Of course it is important because it is a campaign report card and bad poll numbers can lead to fundraising problems and because a campaign that misuses polls is likely to mis-allocate resources and mis-focus its message.
Mid-campaign polls tell you very little about the outcome of an election, but they tel you very much about the current progress of the campaign.
There are a number of reasons for this.
First, national polling is like a mock national election. There is no national primary so national polling is a mock-up for a vote that will never occur. That's not to say national polling isn't important. Biden's entry into the race would have created a ton of chaos, and his decision not to enter the race was no doubt based -- in some part at least -- on national polls. In this sense, the national polling was very significant. In the sense of predicting anything, national polling is almost useless, however, because the actual results in Iowa and New Hampshire will have a profound effect on the perception of the race in 48 other states. If O'Malley were to defy expectations and win or even nearly win Iowa or New Hampshire, it would effect all of the post-New Hampshire races. If Sanders were to win Iowa and New Hampshire, that -- too -- would have a huge impact on the race. Likewise, if Clinton were to win Iowa and New Hampshire, that might signal a near unanimous sweep for her campaign (although such an early win might also inspire a state or two to throw a "buyer's remorse" result to another candidate).
Second, Iowa polling is notoriously a poor predictor of results in that state because it is a caucus state and the caucus process depends almost as much as the intensity of support as it depends on the amount of supporters.
Third, more than a month before the voters in a state come to the polls, most eventual voters either haven't made up their minds at all or their support is soft and they are still willing to change their current preference. This explains why Obama beat Clinton in 2008 despite the fact that she was killing him in the polls throughout 2007.
Look to the polling to see whether your candidate is currently hitting his or her targets and whether they are making progress or losing ground, but stop screaming about polls as if they are an election.
Polls are not a diploma; they are a report card.
Enough bad report cards and you might not get a diploma (so report cards are important), but good report cards during your sophomore year do not mean you are going to earn a diploma.
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