Latest HuffPost/Pollster New Hampshire chart showing Hillary climbing and Bernie sinking

[DCBob]

Customized
-- Date range: 5/1/2015 to present
-- Less smoothing option
-- All polls



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus#!mindate=2015-05-01&smoothing=less&estimate=custom

New Hampshire is probably Bernie's strongest state besides Vermont so this is pretty much the nail in the coffin if trend continues.

[Hortensis]

1. Too soon to reflect debate result. Bernie was getting the most

twitter action.

[moobu2]

2. Yeah but Bernie usually gets a lot of Twitter mentions and stuff anyway.

last night didn't change anything that would help him either and that by itself might have hurt him. I think Bernie's done.

[Cheese Sandwich]

12. Wow nice chart

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[kristopher]

39. Here is the OP's parameters change only to allow moderate smoothing

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus#!mindate=2015-05-01&estimate=custom

[DCBob]

40. That option tends to hides detail and recent trends.

Its fine if you think there are outlier polls.

[DCBob]

3. True, but not sure the Twitter action is going to have much impact on those numbers.

The media reports will have more effect and they seem to be more leaning towards Clinton doing well.

[Hortensis]

10. Yes. MSM will tell people what to think. On

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Do you really believe our fellow Democrats lack the perspicacity to make up their own minds?

Thank you in advance.

[Hortensis]

25. Those who "couldnt" watch the debate because they were watching

Football instead? And of those the small number who will exceed their typical 3 minutes of news a day to listen to an ABC summary of the debate? You bet.

LOL, though, in case you were joking.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I believe my fellow Democrats are some of the most informed citizens on the planet.

EOM

[Hortensis]

28. Where are they getting their belief that they shouldn't bother to vote?

Are those informing voices whispering, "Go, GOP!"?

I would love to believe as you do. As it is, I need to take frequent looks at what today's conservatives have become to be reassured of how much better citizens we are at our worst.

[JaneyVee]

5. Trust me, most twitter action isn't a good thing.

[Hortensis]

9. On? I don't follow so rely on others.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. He also had the most twitter action after the first debate...

I think I will hang my hat on the scientific polling:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251812304

[cosmicone]

19. Same few hundred bros tweeting and retweeting

while participating in online polls till the skin on their fingers was raw.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. The picture you just drew is a touch disturbing.

EOM

[JaneyVee]

4. K AND R!

[reformist2]

6. Garbage in, garbage out. But whatever floats your boat.

[jfern]

7. All because of one shitty poll from Gravis

You do realize Gravis is likely the worst pollster?

[Persondem]

13. 4 0f the last 5 polls in NH have Clinton ahead. If there's any "shitty poll" that should be

discounted, it's that one poll that had Sanders ahead by 15.

[jfern]

18. The others were close to a tie

I suppose you believed that Jim Webb had 13% nationwide after Gravis had him at that in a poll? Give it up, Gravis is total crap.

[Persondem]

22. Prove it. Otherwise it's just you and a keyboard.

[jfern]

23. Question 14 here. I guess it was actually 12%, still crazy.

http://www.oann.com/dncdebate/

[Persondem]

29. One candidate's numbers from one poll do not prove that a polling company is crap.

This is the statement in question.

"Gravis is total crap. "

[jfern]

30. Chafee also had crazy numbers in that poll

But don't worry, they have plenty of other absurd polls. Why are most of their polls only 1 day anyways? Good pollsters usually have at least 3 days.

[Persondem]

36. Nate Silver gives them a C+. Not great but not terrible.

They did have a poll from early Oct. that had Bernie ahead in NH. Was that a "shitty poll" as well?

It's really just about the trend of the aggregated of recent polls. Clinton has been gaining ground after her good month in Oct. It only makes sense that most polls now would have her in the lead in NH, and they do. Gravis is just 1 of 4 recent polls that see it that way. You can whine all you want.

[jfern]

37. Maybe they got more terrible since he gave them a C+

Gravis is shitty no matter who is ahead. The other polls show a close race.

[DCBob]

43. I think their trend analysis is a bit more sophisticated than that.

One poll shouldn't skew it that much.

[Cheese Sandwich]

11. Is joke? I see totally different chart there

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[Persondem]

14. Reading skills ... NH versus national. nt.

[Rose Siding]

17. Be nice!

[Rose Siding]

15. The op is the New Hampshire trend chart

You posted the National page

[DCBob]

31. No joke. Its New Hampshire.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus#!mindate=2015-05-01&smoothing=less&estimate=custom

[Cheese Sandwich]

34. oh thanks I misread it

[DCBob]

35. No problem.

I've done similar.

[MohRokTah]

20. These polls don't count!

Nobody can run scripts to rack up 100,000 votes for Sanders in these polls!

[Rose Siding]

21. I like that!

I read that he said Iowa is "must win". What can he do if NH is lost as well?

[RandySF]

24. Yell at clouds

[DCBob]

33. Bernie's must win list is quickly becoming his big lost list.

[Agschmid]

32. Can't it's alone but I've been working my ass off getting her message out.

Canvassing, phone banks, visibility.

I'm not about to stop.

[firebrand80]

38. O'Mallementum

[Vattel]

41. The dishonest hawk is winning. That sucks.

[DCBob]

42. Nonsense.

[Cha]

44. Keep it up, Hill!