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2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Sun Nov 15, 2015, 12:27 PM Nov 2015

Predictive markets: Debate was a nonevent

All three candidates remain at exactly the same % chance for nomination this morning as before the debate.

HRC - 91%
BS - 8%
MOM - 1%

This is one sentiment I agree with. No one did enough to gain support; no one did enough to lose support.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Predictive markets: Debate was a nonevent (Original Post) Godhumor Nov 2015 OP

No change = the leader in the polls wins MohRokTah Nov 2015 #1

And here I thought there was some voting involved. JonLeibowitz Nov 2015 #2

Not yet. (But it won't be long now.) NurseJackie Nov 2015 #3

Going to bump as odds are still the same 2 days later Godhumor Nov 2015 #4

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)

1. No change = the leader in the polls wins

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Sun Nov 15, 2015, 12:30 PM

Nov 2015

The purpose of those who are trailing in the polls going into any debate is to knock the leader off their perch. They clearly failed to that that, ergo, Hilary becomes the de facto winner.