CBS Overnight poll on "who won" debate

[brooklynite]

CBS News:

Immediately after Saturday night's Democratic debate, CBS News interviewed a nationally representative sample of debate watchers assembled by GfK's Knowledge Panel who identified themselves as Democrats or independents. By a 23 point margin, these debate watchers say Hillary Clinton won the debate. Fifty-one percent say Clinton won, compared to 28 percent who favor Bernie Sanders. Just 7 percent pick Martin O'Malley as the winner. Fourteen percent called it a tie.

Among Democrats, Clinton is seen as winning by more than two to one, while independents are split between Clinton and Sanders.

What does that tell me? Everyone went with the candidate they were already supporting.

No change means a win for Clinton.

[sufrommich]

1. Could you add the link? nt

[brooklynite]

3. Click on "CBS News"

[sufrommich]

4. Didn't see that,thanks. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Don't you think we should wait for the results of the facebook polls to come in?

[sufrommich]

8. I'm waiting with bated breath.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Candor compels me to concede the data suggests the VT independent performed better this time.

He lost the first debate 2-1 in the polls or thereabouts. He only lost this poll 3-2.

[Dem2]

5. Agreed

Slight tilt to O'Malley from the polling averages, and even though that's likely just polling error, I'm gonna give him those 2-4 points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It seems PPP was thrown under the bus for no reason.

And flash polls are notoriously hard to conduct.

[Bluenorthwest]

30. CBS gives her a 23 point advantage in the polling, PPP gave her a 47 point adavantage so they

more than doubled her advantage. You keep saying that they were vindicated, but that's nonsense.

[Agnosticsherbet]

9. On this initial sample, Paris was critical in their opinion

In light of the terrorist attacks on Friday night in Paris, Saturday night's debate shifted much of its focus to foreign policy, terrorism, and addressing the threat posed by the Islamic militant group ISIS. On these topics, Clinton scores a commanding lead over her rivals. 

[MrMickeysMom]

10. This is the embarrassing PPP pole that respectable pollsters don't want to be associated with

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=810541

[JonLeibowitz]

12. No, it is not.

[MrMickeysMom]

14. Link?

Let's see if it's any more legitimate, please...

[JonLeibowitz]

18. There is a link at the top of the page

I have not done a thorough read yet to see if it is legitimate.

[MrMickeysMom]

20. "I have not done a thorough read yet to see if it is legitimate"...

As you prepare to do that, the rest of us should know about the litmus test for validity...

There are several points to consider before accepting that a reported result is valid. The easiest is to look at the margin of error. It's "easiest" because it deals with statistical validity. For example, if 50 percent of those polled believe "x" and 47 believe "y" but the margin of error is +/- 3 percent, then there is no statistical difference between the two viewpoints!

If a poll or a news story reporting the results of a poll fail to mention the margin of error, then take the results with a proverbial grain of salt.

The Poll-ees
Next, how many people were surveyed and who were they? Some polls feature "adults" while others are "likely voters" and yet another set might be "registered voters."

Who answers the questions is important.

When the poll asks "who would you vote for if the election were today?" then the respondents should be registered voters! It would be better yet if they also voted in the past election, as past performance is a good predictor of future voting action. But this kind of questioning weeds out respondents, which means more phone calls are required to get the representative sample. More phone calls = more time = cost more.

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In addition, the error involved in extrapolating results from small populations to large ones increases as sample size decreases.

Statistical Validity
Most media surveys are performed at a 95 percent confidence level. This means that the statisticians are confident that if the survey were conducted with the larger audience, 95 percent of the time the results would fall within the margin of error. Be careful if you're trying to compare surveys with different confidence levels or different margins of error.

Also ask yourself: how was the question worded? Professional pollsters know how to phrase a question so that it is neutral rather than one that leads the participant towards an answer.

Beware news reports that summarize polling results but fail to provide full text of the questions.

If more than one question was asked, the sequence of questioning is also important. For example, if there has been bad news recently reported about the economy, and people are asked their opinion on the economy before they are asked how well they think the President is doing his job, the Presidential numbers are apt to be lower than if the questions were asked in reverse order.

The CBS online article states....

CBS News interviewed a nationally representative sample of debate watchers assembled by GfK's Knowledge Panel who identified themselves as Democrats or independents. By a 23 point margin, these debate watchers say Hillary Clinton won the debate. Fifty-one percent say Clinton won, compared to 28 percent who favor Bernie Sanders. Just 7 percent pick Martin O'Malley as the winner. Fourteen percent called it a tie

Whoa... It's gonna be pretty hard to get legitimacy out of THAT one, Jon.

[JonLeibowitz]

21. I support Bernie

I think your sarcasm is slightly misplaced.

[MrMickeysMom]

22. Sarcasm?

Gee, Jon... Here I was thinking that I was a spirited hard ass on the internets. No harm meant.

I am snarky with some of this, especially after last evening when getting a few posts hidden for ridiculous reasons... but I mean no harm. I AM passionate with my opinion. I DO beg your pardon...

[JonLeibowitz]

24. Thanks. Have a nice day!

[dsc]

13. cbs news right in the post

it is a different poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. "No, it is not."

This is the embarrassing PPP pole that respectable pollsters don't want to be associated with

-MrMickeysMom

"No, it is not."

-Jon Leibowitz

[MrMickeysMom]

17. Link?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Anything for a fellow denizen of our august community

This CBS News poll was conducted online using GfK's web-enabled KnowledgePanel®, a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 674 voters who identified themselves as Democrat or independent who watched the debate.

GfK's KnowledgePanel®'s participants are initially chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and residential addresses. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone or by mail to participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, GfK provides at no cost a device to connect to the internet.

This is a scientifically representative poll of these voters' reaction to the debate. The margin of sampling error could be plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based on the entire sample.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-second-democratic-debate-november-2015-cbs-news/

Here is the link for the principals at GFK Knowledge Panel so you can contact them:

Patricia Graham
US Lead, Consumer Panels
312-282-2472

Bob Torongo
202-747-1829

[MrMickeysMom]

28. Why, THANK YOU!

You're pretty August yourself!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. July 29th is my birthday so I came close.

[DCBob]

23. You are confused.. this is a CBS poll which confirms the PPP results.

[MrMickeysMom]

26. You DO realize that confirming with PPP results...

= zero to the power of 10, don't you?

You should get out more and talk to people and to confirm the legitimate sample sizes of the populous.

[Cheese Sandwich]

11. An online poll pre-screened by GfK's Knowledge Panel? Sounds super legit.

[Metric System]

16. Well, it's more legit than those online polls Sanders supporters tout and spend their nights

clicking multiple times.

[Scootaloo]

19. Because it tells you what you want to hear? What happened to your "SCIENTIFIC LOL!" lines?

[Armstead]

25. I'll agree no change. Both Bernie and Clinton had their ups and downs

Clinton benefited from the Paris in people turning to a familiar face in the aftermath of a foreign affairs crisis. Apart from that I'd say all three were roughly equivalent in terms of response. The ground has shifted so much on that in the last two days there really is no "right" answer to that one at the moment....The dust is gonna have to settle to see what happens and how profound the impact will be.

Clinton, IMO, really screwed up and looked like Rudy Guilliani in her decision to pull the 9-11 card in her response to the discussion about Wall St. backing. Her anger looked phony, and that was an idiotic thing to say, as the ties to Wall St. extend further back and ahead to today. Nobody with 1/3 of a brain thinks that the Clinton's ties to Big Money grew out of a desire to help people working in downtown New York on 9-11.

But in fairness, Bernie was a bit too Rain Man at times, repeating his mantra. I totally agree with his mantra, and it needs to be said and repeated. But he is using it as the -purpose answer to everything. He's got to broaden beyond that, and get more specific....I KNOW he is capable of that, and he has a 3D grasp of issues and policies. But he can't keep staying so tightly "on message" for everything.