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sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 02:14 PM Nov 2015

Iowa may now be everything for Bernie Sanders

There may be no more important event on the calendar for Sanders than Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses. He is counting on a political revolution to sweep him into the White House. But with Hillary Rodham Clinton regaining strength over the past month in the fight for the Democratic nomination, there’s a growing sense that Iowa could instead be the beginning of the end if Sanders doesn’t pull off back-to-back victories here and in New Hampshire.

The Vermont senator is stronger in neighboring New Hampshire, but some analysts say that Clinton could absorb a loss there and quickly rebound, given a subsequent primary calendar that plays to her strengths — including a far greater appeal at this point among minority voters. The next two contests take place in Nevada and South Carolina, where Latinos and African Americans will be key to the outcome.

All of which makes Iowa — the site of the second Democratic debate on Saturday night — hugely important to Sanders’s insurgent bid.

“He has no chance if he doesn’t win Iowa,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist in both of President Obama’s campaigns. “Even if he were to win New Hampshire, it could be written off as a home-state victory because he’s from across the border.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-bernie-sanders-more-urgency-than-ever-to-win-iowa/2015/11/12/f1ce7d00-8938-11e5-be39-0034bb576eee_story.html

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Iowa may now be everything for Bernie Sanders (Original Post) sufrommich Nov 2015 OP
His Waterloo... VanillaRhapsody Nov 2015 #1
Every time someone mentions Waterloo ... 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #3
Well it is make or break... VanillaRhapsody Nov 2015 #5
I hope you don't believe everything you write JonLeibowitz Nov 2015 #9
Every time someone mentions Waterloo ... sufrommich Nov 2015 #6
Every time someone mentions Waterloo... onenote Nov 2015 #15
Waterloo... Agnosticsherbet Nov 2015 #8
Did someone say "Waterloo" NurseJackie Nov 2015 #13
LOL Agnosticsherbet Nov 2015 #14
Made me laugh. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #20
Hear that- ruffburr Nov 2015 #2
Or not Half-Century Man Nov 2015 #4
and there are some... VanillaRhapsody Nov 2015 #7
delegates will reflect the will of the voters restorefreedom Nov 2015 #17
With the ground game O'Malley is building in Iowa.... NCTraveler Nov 2015 #10
He's definitely the stealth candidate. I'm sufrommich Nov 2015 #11
I think Axelrod is right: Jarqui Nov 2015 #12
Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee Gothmog Nov 2015 #16
Didn't 538 say that Sanders could win IA and NH and then lose almost everywhere else? Renew Deal Nov 2015 #18
With enough cash, he should be able to string it out through Super Tuesday. MohRokTah Nov 2015 #19
 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
3. Every time someone mentions Waterloo ...
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 02:22 PM
Nov 2015

it never comes about ... well, it didn't for President Obama, so maybe ...

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
9. I hope you don't believe everything you write
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 02:29 PM
Nov 2015

7% chance of winning is different from betting houses thinking people will be betting those odds.

Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)
4. Or not
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 02:25 PM
Nov 2015

Maybe just a bump in a much longer road. There are those who would quit after a defeat or two. And there are those with greater dedication. I suspect Bernie will stay and fight long after whatever happens in the general election. He is that kind of guy.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
17. delegates will reflect the will of the voters
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 07:14 PM
Nov 2015

how many people have "pledged" to hillary is meaningless. the people will decide, or you can watch the end of the dem party in real time at the convention.

sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
11. He's definitely the stealth candidate. I'm
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 02:33 PM
Nov 2015

watching his campaign to see if his campaign strategy pans out. His ground game is impressive.

Jarqui

(10,125 posts)
12. I think Axelrod is right:
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 05:25 PM
Nov 2015
“He has no chance if he doesn’t win Iowa,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist in both of President Obama’s campaigns. “Even if he were to win New Hampshire, it could be written off as a home-state victory because he’s from across the border.”


If he wins Iowa, he's likely to win New Hampshire. That means for the first 20 days of the primary after the voting starts, all the media would be talking about is whether Bernie is going to do what Barack did to Hillary => which legitimizes his candidacy with free media coverage (kind of like what happened with Obama). Bernie has a good message and would gain some momentum with media exposure that legitimizes him.

Look at the polls in 2008:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#charts
Clinton has a 21 point lead Jan 3rd - date of the Iowa caucus .... which Obama wins and BOOM ... he closes the gap and away his campaign goes ...

If Bernie wins Iowa, people (most people are just tuning in) and media will sit up, take notice and listen to what he's selling - which gives Bernie a shot.

But if Bernie loses Iowa, even if he wins New Hampshire, it's tough because he's behind in Nevada and South Carolina. Good chance Hillary wins 3 of the first four setting her up well with momentum as the likely winner for the super Tuesday vote in March. Game over. Stick a fork in him.

Gothmog

(145,252 posts)
16. Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 06:44 PM
Nov 2015

Texas alone has almost three times the number of delegates as Iowa and New Hampshire combined

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
19. With enough cash, he should be able to string it out through Super Tuesday.
Thu Nov 12, 2015, 07:18 PM
Nov 2015

If he doesn't win something more than Vermont on March 1, he's toast.

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