2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIowa may now be everything for Bernie Sanders
There may be no more important event on the calendar for Sanders than Iowas first-in-the-nation caucuses. He is counting on a political revolution to sweep him into the White House. But with Hillary Rodham Clinton regaining strength over the past month in the fight for the Democratic nomination, theres a growing sense that Iowa could instead be the beginning of the end if Sanders doesnt pull off back-to-back victories here and in New Hampshire.
The Vermont senator is stronger in neighboring New Hampshire, but some analysts say that Clinton could absorb a loss there and quickly rebound, given a subsequent primary calendar that plays to her strengths including a far greater appeal at this point among minority voters. The next two contests take place in Nevada and South Carolina, where Latinos and African Americans will be key to the outcome.
All of which makes Iowa the site of the second Democratic debate on Saturday night hugely important to Sanderss insurgent bid.
He has no chance if he doesnt win Iowa, said David Axelrod, the chief strategist in both of President Obamas campaigns. Even if he were to win New Hampshire, it could be written off as a home-state victory because hes from across the border.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-bernie-sanders-more-urgency-than-ever-to-win-iowa/2015/11/12/f1ce7d00-8938-11e5-be39-0034bb576eee_story.html
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)it never comes about ... well, it didn't for President Obama, so maybe ...
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)he only has a 7% chance of winning now....
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)7% chance of winning is different from betting houses thinking people will be betting those odds.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)I get a stupid ABBA song stuck in my head.
onenote
(42,703 posts)that damn ABBA song starts running through my head.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)ruffburr
(1,190 posts)Iowa? Get on out and Vote for Bernie!!!
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Maybe just a bump in a much longer road. There are those who would quit after a defeat or two. And there are those with greater dedication. I suspect Bernie will stay and fight long after whatever happens in the general election. He is that kind of guy.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)that have next to no Delegates...
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)how many people have "pledged" to hillary is meaningless. the people will decide, or you can watch the end of the dem party in real time at the convention.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)I think that is going to be Sanders battle.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)watching his campaign to see if his campaign strategy pans out. His ground game is impressive.
Jarqui
(10,125 posts)He has no chance if he doesnt win Iowa, said David Axelrod, the chief strategist in both of President Obamas campaigns. Even if he were to win New Hampshire, it could be written off as a home-state victory because hes from across the border.
If he wins Iowa, he's likely to win New Hampshire. That means for the first 20 days of the primary after the voting starts, all the media would be talking about is whether Bernie is going to do what Barack did to Hillary => which legitimizes his candidacy with free media coverage (kind of like what happened with Obama). Bernie has a good message and would gain some momentum with media exposure that legitimizes him.
Look at the polls in 2008:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#charts
Clinton has a 21 point lead Jan 3rd - date of the Iowa caucus .... which Obama wins and BOOM ... he closes the gap and away his campaign goes ...
If Bernie wins Iowa, people (most people are just tuning in) and media will sit up, take notice and listen to what he's selling - which gives Bernie a shot.
But if Bernie loses Iowa, even if he wins New Hampshire, it's tough because he's behind in Nevada and South Carolina. Good chance Hillary wins 3 of the first four setting her up well with momentum as the likely winner for the super Tuesday vote in March. Game over. Stick a fork in him.
Gothmog
(145,252 posts)Texas alone has almost three times the number of delegates as Iowa and New Hampshire combined
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)If he doesn't win something more than Vermont on March 1, he's toast.