November 4, 2015 polls: Hillary 56, Sanders 35. November 1-4, 2007 polls: Hillary 50, Obama 22

[AZ Progressive]

Source: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-11-06-politics.htm, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

[RandySF]

1. How many candidates

were in the 2008 field at this point compared to now?

[Fearless]

5. The question is irrelevant.

[treestar]

11. see post 8

yes it is. There were other stronger candidates who supporters were in play. This time they are none. O'Malley isn't polling very big. Wherever his supporters go won't have big effects.

This is an illogical place to take comfort in. Yet it gets repeated over and over as some sort of mantra.

[NCTraveler]

13. Not even close to irrelevant...

If one is trying to be intellectually honest in this comparison that truly has no merit in the first place. Some people's understanding of statistics around here is horrifying.

[Hepburn]

2. But, but, but...

...Sanders is not Barack Obama!

[treestar]

14. He's not

He does not have the ground game. He does not have other candidates whose supporters he might get when they drop out. He does not have the charisma or the speaking skill.

[JoePhilly]

15. They think Sanders is just like Obama ...

... but also nothing like Obama.

They jump back and forth on this simple point.

[winter is coming]

3. Whoops! And, if memory serves, Iowa and NH were earlier in '08 than they are this time. n/t

[99th_Monkey]

4. Puts things into perspective. Thanks. -nt-

[Eric J in MN]

6. That's why Debbie Wasserman Schultz lowered the number of debates.

26 debates in the primary season for the 2008 nomination.

6 debates in in the primary season for the 2016 nomination.

So that no one will have as much chance to challenge Hillary Clinton's lead in the debates this time.

[reformist2]

7. Bernie polling natioanlly at 35% is damned exciting!!!

His poll numbers just keep climbing!

[Godhumor]

8. Your numbers are wrong, which is interesting since you provided links.

RCP is 54.8 Clinton to 32.5 for Bernie. It appears you took the 56 for Clinton from one poll and the 35 for Sanders from another poll.

You then compared it to a single poll from 2007. But, wouldn't you know it, RCP also has records from then. And in an RCP to RCP comparison, on Nov 4th, 2007 Clinton was at 44.4 to 22.6 for Obama. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls

Well the spread seems pretty close, but you know, there is something else missing from your 2007 look. That would be the 15% support John Edwards had. Now, why would that be important? Well, when he left in January, his supporters moved to Obama, including his financial backers. So Obama had room to grow from other candidates at this point in 2007. O'Malley is barely registering as a possible source of absorption for Sanders.

I understand your desire to try and put the races in perspective but they are different races.

[AZ Progressive]

9. Point being that Hillary supporters are dismissing Bernie while Obama was even lower in the polls...

8 years ago this time.

[Segami]

10. Thanks!..K&R

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Keep hope alive!