PPP: Obama leads in Iowa by 2-points among likely voters

[WI_DEM]

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 2 points in Iowa, the state where Obama won the nation’s first caucus in 2008, according to a new poll . That’s down from a 5-point lead in PPP’s July poll, and a 10-point lead in May.

Obama gets 47 percent of the vote among likely voters and Romney gets 45 percent in the poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling. Voters disapprove of the job the president is doing by a 45 approve/50 disapprove split. Romney has made great strides on his personal rating — he’s improved from a 37 favorable/55 percent unfavorable split in PPP’s July poll to a 47 favorable/48 percent unfavorable rating now.

“Barack Obama’s lead in Iowa has steadily declined in our polling over the last three months,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, said in a release. “He still has a narrow advantage, but it’s clear that the state deserves its perceived swing state status.”

Overall the presidential race in Iowa is extremely close in the PollTracker Average of all public polling, with the president up 0.7 percent in the Hawkeye State.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/poll-obama-lead-in-iowa-falls-to-2-points.php

The PPP poll used 1,244 automated interviews with likely voters via landline (automated surveys are prohibited from calling cell phones) conducted Aug. 23-26. It has a sampling error of 2.8 percent.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. So fucking close!! That is scary!!

[WI_DEM]

2. it is apparently the case or else Obama wouldn't be spending $$ and time in Iowa

the way he is. He'll be back in Iowa today for a college rally and then he had his three-day bus tour of the state a couple of weeks ago.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. Oh, I believe it. I believe he's in trouble. I just think it's scary and sad. :(

[WI_DEM]

6. You're going to see Ryan in Iowa and Wisconsin quite a bit this fall

but the good news is even with a running mate from the upper middle west, Obama is currently leading in both Iowa and Wisconsin. He will just have to spend more time there than he did in 2008.

[trayfoot]

22. It really pains me to say

that I agree with you, and it scares the hell out of me! It is bad enough to imagine what Romney/Ryan would do to this country - but the really sad part is that there are so many low information voters in this country who are shooting themselves in the foot!

[TroyD]

4. Close, but . . .

A lead is a lead.

Even though he's not as far ahead as he may have been 4 years ago, at this stage of the game to have a lead is the important thing.

Perhaps news of Romney's plans to abolish wind power hasn't spread across Iowa yet. A couple weeks ago, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) even criticized Romney. Obama should highlight those statements.

[WI_DEM]

5. PPP makes the point that wind power may be the main reason why Obama is still in the

lead in Iowa. He is more trusted on that by 47-37 than Mitt.

[TroyD]

9. Grassley vs. Romney

Sen. Chuck Grassley has endorsed Mitt Romney, but that hasn’t stopped the Iowa Republican’s from taking issue with his party’s presidential candidate over federal tax incentives for wind energy.

http://thegazette.com/2012/08/10/grassley-takes-issue-with-romneys-plan-to-end-wind-energy-tax-credit/

[TroyD]

11. Grassley: Romney a "Stupid Back Stabber"

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/16/1120714/-Republican-Senator-Calls-Romeny-a-Stupid-Back-Stabber

[WI_DEM]

7. BTW, the poll's demographics are interesting +3 GOP sampling:

Obama Clings to Iowa Lead 23 minutes ago


The sample is +3 R (remember PPP does not call cells)
The sample is 2008 Obama +5 (he won by 10)
Yet it is still Obama +2, this is PBO still winning with a 2010 sample

Best thing about the poll, Obama +13 with independents.

[GallopingGhost]

8. I don't know what to make of it

Electoral-vote.com has Iowa light blue without Ras, and barely GOP with it.

I can't believe Romney's stance on wind power hasn't annihilated him in that state, but I still think Obama will carry it.

[WI_DEM]

10. see above post for some encouraging demographic info

bottom line is GOTV.

[TroyD]

12. Nate Silver has IOWA leaning Obama

I think he gives him a 60-65% chance of winning, last time I checked.

[WI_DEM]

14. true, but obviously it's close or else Obama wouldn't be in the state for the

fourth time this month. Still, I think Obama has a edge but it will come down to GOTV.

[TroyD]

16. Iowa's history

It makes sense that the Democratic Nominee has to campaign in Iowa, though. Except for 2008, this state is not usually a runaway victory - it is usually close, so there's nothing alarming about it being that way. It is the normal pattern.

Remember that George W. Bush won this state in one of his elections by about 1 point and lost it by about 1 point in the other election. (Forget which was 2000 and which was 2004 - I'll have to google it. )

[Jennicut]

21. Bush won it in 2004. Iowa has been a tossup state

the last few years. I think Obama could win here but it will be closer then before.

[CoffeeCat]

20. I mentioned this earlier...

...but I really do believe that it's the Medicare issue. Romney/Ryan and their lie machine have scared seniors. Twenty percent of Iowa's population is age 65 and older.

Obama has yet to give his rebuttal, which I have to believe is being tweaked as we speak. I am thinking that Obama will unleash it after the Republican convention and possibly at our Democratic convention. You know this is a horrendously HUGE issue for our party, and we've barely heard anything out of Obama. I have to believe that they're letting RR spew all of the lies they have in their chamber--and when they're finished Obama will hit them hard with the truth. Then RR will be on the defensive for the rest of the campaign.

Wind is important in Iowa, but employs only 4,000 people in the state. Might not be enough to really move those numbers. However, Medicare can move it easier.

Romney is not going to win Iowa. I'll tell you that much. Iowans know authenticity and they know a liar. Romney is a shameless liar and when Obama gets through with him, he will be toast--in Iowa and elsewhere.

Iowans are smart. We have a nutjob contingent that is like no other (Hey, Pat Robertson nearly won the Iowa Republican caucus one year!), but gay marriage is legal here. We also were the first in the nation to pick Obama, when we did so in our Iowa caucuses. Hillary was the inevitable candidate, but Iowans took their "first-in-the-nation" status seriously, listened to Obama's speeches, asked the tough questions and we were won over. Our state is 99 percent caucasian, which I hope improves, but we are enlightened enough to know that he was the best man for the job.

[CoffeeCat]

13. Romney is making inroads with Medicare...

Unfortunately, and it pains me to watch this--the lying Romney circus is making inroads on the Medicare issue. Romney and Ryan have basically lied about Obama's plans and misrepresented what Obama is doing while lying about their own intentions. R&R doesn't tell people that they will be gutting the program and giving people inadequate vouchers that won't cover medical costs--unless you never get sick or need healthcare in your old age.

Romney and Ryan make me sick when it comes to the Medicare issue. They use words like "protect" and "preserve" when in reality, they can't wait to take a sledgehammer to it.

Iowa has a large population of older citizens. Nearly 20 percent of the population is over the age of 65. Obama really needs to step it up on this issue--Iowa is an important state this year, especially with Wisconsin in play, when it is usually not.

I heard today, that the Obama Administration has been waiting to release their own Medicare rebuttal. I imagine that they're working on it--and that it's based on the mountain of RR lies. I guess I can understand if they take their time, because this is a critical issue. However, I'm getting a bit nervous. If RR control that messaging for too long--it could be difficult to overcome.

And yes, Romney blew it big time with his attack of wind subsidies and wind power in general. Wind employs more than 4,000 people in Iowa.

Furthermore, and just as important--many Iowa farmers receive tax credits and subsidies in exchange for placing those wind turbines on their land. Seventy percent of Iowa's corn crop is toast. Many farmers will make nothing from corn--because it's burnt from the drought, and they are being saved by the earnings from these wind turbines being on their land.

So Romney saunters into our state and says that he will end these subsidies. Excuse me? He stepped in it. You don't tell farmers, in the middle of the worst drought in decades that you're going to implode their only means of sustenance. And everyone knows it's because Big Oil is in Romney's pocket. Our Senator Charles Grassley ripped Romney a new one, and Grassley is a tea party enthusiast.

I doubt Romney will win here in Iowa, but we need to get going on our Medicare messaging!

[WI_DEM]

15. I have been surprised that the Obama campaign hasn't hit harder on the Ryan Budget

in regards to Medicare, yet the Romney campaign has lied hard on saying that Obama cut Medicare by 760 billion to fund Obamacare.

[Robbins]

17. Voters

Can be stupid.what do they think Obamacare Is?It's healthcare reform.Romney wants to cut medicare to pay for more tax cuts for
rich and turn It Into voucher system which would bankrupt It In 4 years.Plus the ryan plan cuts medicaid by 800 Billion and sends It back to states so they can cut even more.

[CoffeeCat]

19. I know...

I wanted to start an OP about this, but I want to give Obama some time.

I have a feeling that the Obama campaign is formulating a strategy and messaging related to the Paul pick and their lies about Medicare. It's such a huge issue and there's no way they could be ignoring it. It's possible that they're waiting until after the Republican convention to do this. Maybe they'll launch a new messaging strategy at our convention.

That would be brilliant. Hit them like a sack of flour to the face. Use our high-profile Convention to talk cogently about the enormous lies that Romney/Ryan have been telling. After all, they've told so many lies, that it takes more than an ad to unravel it all. They'll have a huge audience at the convention. That would be terrific if they did that.

I just saw a CNN poll that has RR leading on the "Who do you trust more to handle Medicare?" questions. YIKES.

No way in hell would Obama/Biden allow them to run away with that issue--especially when they plan to gut--and ultimately destroy--Medicare.

I'm hopeful, anyway!

[GallopingGhost]

23. I couldn't agree more, CoffeeCat...

There is going to be a counterattack, and they're going to hit them hard.

And if~ God forbid~ NitMitt & Co manage to steal this election, and gut Medicare, then the seniors who voted for them will have no one to blame but themselves.

Of course, the innocent seniors will be swept along, but the GOP legacy of destroying Medicare will hopefully destroy them as well.

[Thrill]

18. Guy is going to cut tax credits for Wind Power companies

And he's running this close in Iowa? wow just wow

[ellisonz]

24. I'm actually fairly confident about Iowa.

Won't see the voter suppression as much as other states.