"Sanders is losing Iowa – and the Democratic presidential nomination"

[Renew Deal]

When it comes to the Iowa caucuses, votes are often won one coffee klatch at a time.
<snip>

Still, there's no doubt that Sanders' supporters are fired up — comparisons to Barack Obama's 2008 legions abound. Sanders fans insist they have the Democratic base and Clinton has merely captured the establishment.

As an economic populist and avowed social liberal, Sanders' ace in the hole should be retail politics. No one talks more about what average folks have lost and what they need than the self-described Democratic socialist.

But Sanders has eschewed the one-on-one interactions Iowa and New Hampshire voters crave — and expect. He seems far more comfortable speaking extemporaneously to thousands of screaming college kids than listening to folks at their kitchen tables.

Despite Hillary Clinton's frosty, Thatcher-esque reputation, she's the one who looks totally at ease on the coffee-shop circuit.
<snip>

http://www.mlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/11/bernie_sanders_chris_christie.html

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics.

[firebrand80]

1. Repeating Obama's NH mistake in 2008 nt

[WI_DEM]

3. But Obama did retail politics one on one in Iowa in 2008

which is why he won the caucuses. But you are right in NH he went for big rallies after his win in Iowa while Hillary did coffee clutches and things like that.

[firebrand80]

18. Right. He played it safe in NH after his Iowa win

and polls showed him up big. Hillary had her cry moment and we were off to the races.

As an aside, I think Hillary supporters should have wanted Biden in the race. Hillary is a far better candidate when her back is up against the wall than when she is ahead by a wide margin.

[MohRokTah]

2. From the most recent polls, he's probably going to lose NH, too.

That will end up giving Hillary a clean sweep of all four early states because he's losing badly in SC and NV.

He may not even make it to Super Tuesday.

[WI_DEM]

4. My guess is that even with four losses (if that happened)

that Bernie would get out of the race. He would still try to stay in and influence the platform.

[sufrommich]

5. He could,but if Hillary wins the first 4 races

she won't be focusing on the primary,she'll start running for the general.

[MohRokTah]

16. And Sanders will get much less exposure.

Not to mention donations and followers.

[George II]

7. Logically speaking he should drop out before Super Tuesday, but that's not likely. The fact that...

....each of the four early states will allocate delegates proportionally by vote will result in Sanders getting some delegates from each of those states. So the perception will be that he "won" some delegates, even though he'll get much fewer than Clinton.

[NCTraveler]

6. I think some people in these states who aren't big fans of Clinton...

are going to start giving O'Malley a first/second look. These stories are great for him. K&R.

[sufrommich]

9. If O'Malley gets stronger than expected numbers

in Iowa and New Hampshire,he'll most likely start rising elsewhere. I've thought since the beginning that he's probably Clinton's real threat.

[FSogol]

13. I agree. n/t

[brooklynite]

15. Long way to rise...

Give him, for the sake of argument, 100% of Sanders vote (highly unlikely). Still 20% behind Clinton.

[Renew Deal]

10. The stories about Sanders deteriorating campaign are good for O'Malley?

I guess Sanders supporters have to go somewhere.

[FSogol]

14. Don't forget that there are also many undecided democrats and people that haven't started paying

attention yet. There are also HRC supporters with a mild/weak level of support or support her because of inevitability. If that inevitability fades, O'Malley might benefit.

If O'Malley can win or have a good 2nd place showing in a couple of the first 5 debates, he could have a chance. I think he will come in 2nd in Iowa.

[firebrand80]

19. I agree. O'Malley is a solid candidate

I think he's been underperforming to this point.

[ieoeja]

8. He has really disappointed me in Iowa.

We know Hillary doesn't "do" Iowa. Unfortunately, it appears that Sanders doesn't "do" Iowa either. With his Vermont experience I thought he would. And once he beat her in Iowa and New Hampshire, people would start thinking of her as "unviable" and "yesterday's news". But Sanders is letting Iowa slip away. If he loses there Hillary has it in the bag. And we get a Republican president.

Most people seem to think that Obama took out Hillary with the urban vote. Just the opposite actually. He won rural Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Hillary tended to do better in the urban areas. Country folk largely despise Hillary with a passion.

That changed when Obama switched to GOTV tactics. I was always disappointed that he did that. He changed the electoral map enough to win. But he might have changed it a lot more had he not ignored the middle part of the country.

He won Indiana in the general! If he could win Indiana, then he might have won Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, etc. Pretty much everything but the deep south was up for grabs But he didn't even try.

[Chitown Kev]

12. He didn't have too

Obama considered campaigning in West Virginia, Arizona (and some say that he stood an outside chance of winning Arizona in 2008), and Montana and came close, I think, in North Dakota and won an electoral vote in Nebraska.

[MohRokTah]

17. No, we won't "get a republican president".

Hillary will mop the floor with any Republican nominee.

[moobu2]

11. Wonder when it's going to dawn on them that this isn't 2008

and Bernie Sanders isnt Barck Obama and is only a Democrat for his own convenience.