These are my primary season predictions:

[bravenak]

Hillary will be trying to shore up her base, reaching out to all of her groups, and much of the Obama coalition. She will begin talks to find a VP early I believe, showing herself to be assertive and a leader. Might interview O'Malley who will drop out if he accepts. If they link up, there is no need to discuss Bernie any further because she has way more delegates than before. And her poll numbers are awesome for all her negatives.



O'malley will keep saying awesome things and get ignored by the news media who wants to focus on Ben Carson the crazy-liar and Trump the WTF and Marco Rubio's credit card late payments, like we give a damn about Rubio's credit cards.



Bernie will keep trying to figure out what is wrong, and continue listening to all of the wrong advice. His hard core supporters will be there, loud and excited, but not too much of a draw to democrats, or the Obama coalition. The excitement will wear off for some during the debate season. He has neither begun to shoot up in polls, nor has he been getting those delegates and super delegates. Endorsements either. Numbers will begin to fall off, which will drain more support.



We will be done early this time and have a candidate for the GD by my birthday in March.

[bravenak]

2. I do not care if you like me!!!!!!!!

[VanillaRhapsody]

3. OMG....this is what they come here for?

to make people "like them"???

[bravenak]

7. YES

[Cali_Democrat]

9. It's like grade school all over again

I don't like you because you have cooties!

[SidDithers]

4. I like you...nt

Sid

[bravenak]

6. I like you too.nt

[VanillaRhapsody]

10. Hi Sid....

Do you like me....check which one..

__ Yes I like you...

__ I do not like you....



Be sure to get this back to me before recess!

[SidDithers]

16. Hehe...

Sid

[VanillaRhapsody]

20. Even better than my version!

DARN!!!

[freshwest]

68. There's a song that says that. I'll spare you. But I checked: YES. n/t

[seaglass]

18. LOL that is the funniest post I've read on DU in days. :-) n/t

[BootinUp]

17. +1

[Hekate]

11. I like you. Your 3rd para seems fine to me, doesn't insult anyone or anything.

It's just how you see it. The media does seem to like entertainment, like Dr. Ben Spacey and Trump-his-own-horn Donald. But what did you do wrong this time? Nothing, just your own prediction.

What a weird board this is. >smh<

[bravenak]

13. It is not what I said but being me while saying it. Cracks me up.

[Hekate]

15. No kidding. Keep swatting those cooties, cutie.

[bravenak]

19. I will!!

[leftofcool]

29. I like you baby girl!

[bravenak]

42. Thank you!! I like you too. Somebody is cranky, huh? Must be heartbern.

[Skidmore]

31. .....

Love ya!

[bravenak]

40. Yay!! Lol@EM!

[Starry Messenger]

39. I like you. :)

[bravenak]

43. I like you too!

[NurseJackie]

47. l like you! <3

I look forward to reading your posts and comments.

[bravenak]

48. Thank you! I like you too.

Weird how folks just blurt out things to me. Then act like the victim later.

[1StrongBlackMan]

51. Oh you poor dear ... However, will you sleep tonight? n/t

[bravenak]

62. I won't.

[freshwest]

69. Bravenak sez:

I'll cry all night!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. I don't like you. I love you, like a sister, of course.

EOM

[bravenak]

63. Love you too, brother.

[LiberalArkie]

58. There are some fly lovers who still like you.

Although all those swatters make me nervous..

[bravenak]

64. Thank you.

Don't worry, my swatters can't get your buggies.

[freshwest]

67. What a stunning exposition of political analysis that was... But.. Never Explain...

You enemies won't believe you and your friends don't need it.

~ Anon.

[bravenak]

82. Funny huh?

[MineralMan]

80. That's so funny!

Did you send a note out asking anyone if they liked you? I didn't get one, but I'd check the Yes box. Shades of 6th grade...

[bravenak]

81. Isn't it!

I like you too. Wanna play tetherball at recess?

[MineralMan]

83. Cool! I love tetherball.

Maybe I can carry your books after school?

Funny story: A couple of years ago, I went to my 50th high school reunion. Most of the people in my class went through school together, starting in first grade. I was chatting with another alumna, who asked me if I remembered the time when she ran up to me on the playground in first grade and kissed me on the cheek. "How could I forget," I answered, and kissed her on the cheek for old times' sake.

[bravenak]

85. Of course. They ARE heavy!

I have a Gardner's Art for the Ages you can hold. So heavy!

[MineralMan]

86. I'm really strong. I'll be glad to.

[bravenak]

87. Thank you.

[mcar]

36. That was mean

[whatchamacallit]

5. I'm pretty sure Bernie's departure will be a sad time for you

It will mark the beginning of your fade into oblivion.

[bravenak]

8. You wish. No matter what, people WILL bother me.

I'd be happy if you were right, tho. The comments are extreme.

[upaloopa]

30. I'd like to see a book or something with the best

of the 2016 primary season OP's and replies.
I think we have reached the point where all this is more like creative art. Like a reality show to see who can come up with the best posts. We just need an impartial jury. Not to hide posts but to award points.

[bravenak]

32. I keep threatening to write a book on this season. I just might!! It has been a doozy!!

[upaloopa]

41. Hope you do

[1StrongBlackMan]

53. The projection is strong in that one ...

should Bernie drop out, that one's reason for posting will disappear.

[bravenak]

61. No shit.

[1StrongBlackMan]

75. Actually, the riling at Democrats will continue. n/t

[sufrommich]

21. "It will mark the beginning of your fade into oblivion"

This place gets weirder by the day.

[bravenak]

25. That one made me laugh too!

[sufrommich]

26. Is this you,by any chance?

[bravenak]

34. Yeeees Dahling! Ready for my close up!!

[1StrongBlackMan]

54. LOL ... Now THAT made me laugh! n/t

[CoffeeCat]

12. Bernie is doing well in the first two primary states that vote...

He's running a competitive race in Iowa and is on a trajectory to win Iowa.

He's also ahead, according to multiple polls--in New Hampshire.

This inevitability nonsense is getting really old. The Clinton camp tried this unsuccessfully in 2008 and Obama won.

This is a competitive race. Bernie supporters in Iowa and NH are working hard to elect him. He's got 72 paid staffers in Iowa and they're fired up.

I realize that the Clinton camp wants to demoralize Bernie supporters into giving up and believing that Bernie has no chance. I see you working VERY hard to convey that meme.

It's just sooooo 2008. It didn't work then and it's not going to work now.

[bravenak]

14. 2 states? Ok.nt

[CoffeeCat]

59. The only states that matter, as far as polling goes...

...are the first couple of states that vote first in the primaries.

The states that have primaries later are not even plugged into the political scene yet. They are not paying attention. The campaigns don't have ads running in those states and the candidates are making little, if any, appearances in these spots.

We saw this happen with Obama. He was behind in every state, but as we moved on from state to state--the tide shifted and changed.

So yes--the first few states that vote really do reveal the most about who will win.

It's not just "two states". The two most important states right now--Iowa and NH.

[sufrommich]

22. He's not going to win Iowa and New Hampshire

is a toss up,if he does win NH,it will be a squeaker.

[Electric Monk]

23. "I see you working VERY hard to convey that meme." Exactly. You said it better than I did. (nt)

[bravenak]

24. Takes ZERO work. That is the problem. Too easy. Just gotta point out REALITY.

[angrychair]

33. It is why we have primaries

During the first week of November in 2007, HRC was up an average of 22 points on then SBO (USA Today/Gallup had her up 28)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

HRC was crushing SBO in October of 2007:
"...and in October the same poll showed her commanding majority Democratic support, with 51% compared to Obama's 21% and Edwards' 15%."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton_presidential_primary_campaign,_2008

Then SBO didn't start polling north of 30 points, as a constant average, until January of 2008.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

All major labor unions had endorsed HRC before December of 2007
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/labor/laborendorse08.html

She had hundreds of endorsements from Congress and other Democratic Party elite and SuperDelegates
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hillary_Clinton_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2008

And there was this observation from Gallup (bolded emphasis mine):

"The Democratic Race: Conditions Auspicious for Sen. Clinton to Win
Gallup’s 2007 national presidential polling strongly points to Clinton winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. Barring something unusual or otherwise unexpected, she is well positioned for the 2008 Democratic primaries. Obama has not been an insignificant rival: he came within single digits of tying Clinton for the lead at two points this spring. But he has recently lost ground and is now in the weakest position relative to Clinton that he has been in all year.

No other announced or potential Democratic candidate has come close to threatening Clinton’s front-runner status since the campaign began, including former Vice President Al Gore and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/102277/gallup-election-review-october-2007.aspx

Elections are won and lost when they are won and lost.

[bravenak]

35. Bernie has few endorsements and fewer delegates.

[angrychair]

45. I dont do this

I talk policy and positions and I talk about my candidate by name. While I may have slipped a couple times in the past, as a rule I am trying hard to avoid situations which disparage candidates or the Democratic Party.
I didn't mention Bernie Sanders since he wasn't running in 2008. I did it since it was the most recent and on-topic I could produce as an example of "people win and lose when they win and lose".
I didn't post it to disparage a candidate or your opinion, only to make that point. I am not here to fight with my fellow Democrats and DU members, only to advocate for my primary candidate, Bernie Sanders.

[bravenak]

46. Policy will not win elections.

Building coalitions do. That is why we have a system. We work together as a group to win. Bernie has no chance unless he get's the human factor. It is how things work. Not just policy and ideals and dreams of utopia. His utopia and perfect policy may not be what we want as a group.

[angrychair]

50. "Coalitions" sounds like "compromise"

You hear that said a lot, "real world solutions". You hear "compromise" a lot too. Yes, as a nation, we are doing better than we were 8 years ago. Our president did an amazing job. There is still a lot of potholes in this 'road to recovery'.

A few, less than 1%, are doing a great deal better. We have 53% of all wages earned in America are owned by.08% (yes, point zero eight percent). That is wages alone. Not counting those that don't live on a paycheck. A disappearing middle class is a systemic issue that dramatically impacts all other issues, from student loan debt to crime. It is not the only issue, it is an issue.

No snark or disrespect to you or your preferred candidate, just my opinion. I have read other canidiates' policy positions from their campaign websites plus politics is kind of my thing so I am very aware of what is happening around me in the real world.
Far to many other candidates "real world solutions" don't actually fix the problems or address the actual systemic causes for those problems. They "compromise". So tired of me, people like me, getting told that the "real world solutions" or "compromise" means I get shit on (just work a little harder) while the rich get richer. I am being "compromised" into the God damn poor house.

To be fair, I am not saying that Bernie Sanders has all the policies or systemic fixes laid out to cure all the problems in our country (he is a man, not a mythical being sent to heal the sick or make it rain money) either but his starting point, on almost every issue, is far closer to "righting what is wrong" that other candidate's positions do.
Bernie Sanders and a lot of hard work and protesting from ALL OF US (no one, alone, can fix our issues) is how we start making the system work for us and not against us.

[CoffeeCat]

60. Hillary had more endorsements and nearly all of the delegates in 08 too!

Hillary was securing all of the early endorsements. She had the establishment behind her at the onset of the 2008 Democratic primary. She also had some union endorsements.

Her campaign continually reminded everyone that she had most of the delegates in her pocket too.

All of these things meant absolutely ZILCH. Obama won.

We know that Hillary has the blessing of the status-quo establishment. That's what we don't like about her.

Hillary gets the big donors and the big-name endorsements; Bernie gets the small donors and the $10 and $20 donations from middle-class Americans while Hillary sucks up some of that Super Pac money from her corporate fan club.

As far as the delegates go--They will vote for whomever the Democratic party nominates. The delegates will not go against the will of the party. No way. Again, the Hillary camp tried to suggest in 08 that the delegates were in her back pocket. Another intimidation tactic.

When I watch and listen to the Hillary campaign--and their tired old tactics (I'm inevitable! Your candidate can't win! She's unstoppable!) I feel like looking at leftovers. We've seen this before.

You'd think the Clinton camp would try something new for a change, instead of trying their old, worn-out tactics that were a loser's game in 08.

[blue neen]

44. You are correct. It is why we have primaries.

And believe it or not, there are some posters here who have not made up their minds.

I like Bernie Sanders. I do not, however, see him as having a chance to win my state of PA, and there are a lot of delegates here. We'll see.

[Luciferous]

49. I live in Iowa and I see a lot of Bernie signs but I haven't seen a single Clinton sign.

I think Bernie is doing well here.

[Persondem]

57. Bernie is not doing all that well in IA and most recent polls have Clinton up in NH.

Here's IA.....



RCP has Clinton up 24% on Sanders in IA.

They are essentially tied in NH per RCP.

[brooklynite]

76. Can you show us where the "trajectory to win Iowa" is?

[PowerToThePeople]

27. My prediction

Next year we send a fleet of waambulances to help you.

[bravenak]

37. To help me carry Bernie supporters to my rejuvenating Hillary Spa!

[Fawke Em]

71. Never.

I will never vote for her.

[TSIAS]

28. A sure sign of a bad thread

I noticed fly-swatters abound in this thread.

[bravenak]

38. Ok.nt

[SheilaT]

52. Wait! Delegates have been selected already?

What did I miss?

And the super delegates are not locked in. There won't be any real delegate counts until the actual caucuses and primaries. So to say that if Hillary selects O'Malley as her VP and then it will be all over because of delegates, doesn't make sense.

I wonder why I've been seeing Bernie bumper stickers and not a single Hillary one.

[bravenak]

65. He doesn't even try.

[NCTraveler]

56. I have not talked about O'Malley out of respect.

I also think he is going to have a close run for second in at least Iowa. I want to have the VP discussion about him but he is stronger today than at any point. I think the media is a little concerned about Sanders recent stagnation and are giving O'Malley a little more time. That is definitely the case for online and print. He is also promoting himself extremely well and understands the importance of networking.

Still, he would be an amazing negotiator for the President.

As far as Sanders I think he is doing well overall. It's difficult to manage the initial growth they saw. They are making some changes and moving forward. The rest of what you said about his campaign I believe to be accurate.

[bravenak]

66. I know what you mean about giving O'malley respect. I just like him so damn much that I want

him on the ticket. I cannot wait for primaries to be over.

[freshwest]

72. Nooooo! I want Castro to be VP! Take THAT! Make MO'M the Commerce Secretary or I'll...

[Fawke Em]

70. And if it's Hillary, I'm going to have to try to find

a job in a better country or stay here and have to work until I die.


Sad loss for this country. Sad to see it turn into an oligarchy.

[moobu2]

73. What are you going to do when Bernie endorses Hillary?

[Fawke Em]

74. Absoultey nothing.

Hopefully, she'll be endorsing him.

But, if he loses, I'll be looking for another primary candidate, but I won't be motivated at all.

I'll vote. I always do just for kvetching rights even though I know not much seems to change. If HRC gets the nomination, I'll know I was correct in my assumption.

[LWolf]

77. I sure as hell hope not.

The scenario you propose? I agree that O'Malley seems to be marketing himself as Clinton VP material.

In March, though?

That would be just another primary that I don't need to care about, since it would be over before my turn, and my voice/vote would be irrelevant.

That's no way to get anyone excited or energized for the GE. That's the way to disenfranchise large groups of voters. This is my experience talking.

I haven't kept up with what CA is doing, but I hope to hell they are still going with a late primary. With that many delegates up for grabs, it can't be over in March.

[bravenak]

78. She done started looking for VPs today a few hours after I posted this.

That's one down. Sadly I am usually right.

[MineralMan]

79. Sounds about right.

I plan a celebration on March 3, 2016. I think I'll make a monster batch of chili and invite everyone to come over to share it.

I'll stay off DU that day, though, I think. The backlash from Bernie Sanders' endorsement of Hillary Clinton will be too ugly to watch.

[bravenak]

84. Good Idea. I might need to log off for that whole week.

Keep myself from talking too much.