In your opinion, what is the current state of the primary race?

[Godhumor]

Not about who you support or who you think others should support. Quite simply, based on your own observations, research, interactions, etc where do you think the race currently stands?

I'll start. I think Clinton has achieved a kind of critical mass that can only be upset by a criminal indictment or a health related drop out. To me, all appearances are that the party proper has lined up behind her, and that the best opportunity to knock her from front runner status has come and gone (It effectively ended with Biden not declaring, in my opinion.).

Yes, yes, Clinton might flub a debate or make a mistake campaigning, but I feel like she, and the party, are beginning the transition to the GE.

But I expect Sanders and O'Malley to keep pushing and trying to crack the rolling boulder. We will see if they can.

[Angry Dragon]

1. wide open

[upaloopa]

2. Hillary has the largest base of support.

I don't see anything that will change that. The Democratic Party is more diverse than the group of people who support Bernie.

[bravenak]

3. Hillary winning. Bernie Stagnant. O'malley waiting for a break.

Hillary will be trying to shore up her base, reaching out to all of her groups and much of the Obama coalition. She will begin talks to find a VP early I believe, showing herself to be assertive and a leader. Might interview O'Malley who will drop out if he accepts. If they link up the no need to discuss Bernie and further because she has way more delegates than before. And her poll numbers are awesome for all her negatives.



O'malley will keep saying awesome things and get ignored by the news media who wants to focus on Ben Carson the crazy-liar and Trump the WTF and Marco Rubios credit card late payments like we give a damn about Rubios credit cards.

Bernie will keep trying to figure out what is wrong and continue listening to all of the wrong advice. His hard core supporters will be there, loud and excited, not to much of a draw to democrats or the Obama coalition. The excitement will wear off for some during the debate season. He has not began to shoot up in polls, nor has he been getting those delegates and super delegates. Endorsements either. Numbers will begin to fall off, which will drain more support. We will be done early this time.

[Vattel]

4. I agree with your analysis. Too bad, but so it goes.

[Fumesucker]

5. A week is an eternity in politics

Three months is a bit longer.

I started out giving Sanders a 25% chance of making the nom, I haven't changed my mind so far.

[CoffeeCat]

6. This is the same Hillary message that was popular in our 2008 primary...

...but this year Clinton is really upping the ante. She really, really, really wants you to think that she is inevitable and that Sanders has absolutely no chance.

That is balderdash.

At this point in the Democratic primary--in 2007--Clinton was leading in EVERY SINGLE national poll. She was leading in every state as well. Some of the states in which she led, were by 50+ points.

But Obama won the primary. Isn't that something?

Look at Iowa, the state that votes first. Hillary was far ahead at this point against Obama. Obama was never neck and neck with Clinton until closer to the Iowa caucuses. Bernie had 4 percent in Iowa before the summer. Then, at the end of the summer/early fall, Sanders was winning in Iowa. Amazing! Clinton lost 30 points in Iowa--from May to the end of the summer. Currently Bernie is a bit behind, depending on which poll you look at--but this is a competitive race. Obama was never ahead of Hillary (and Bernie has been). And Obama won Iowa!

Again--I don't think this can be stressed enough. Sanders has done better in the Iowa polls against Clinton--than Obama ever did--if you compare the summer and fall numbers. This puts him on a trajectory to win Iowa.

And New Hampshire even looks better for Bernie. He's winning in New Hampshire. During the 2008 campaign Obama polled behind Clinton and he was never expected to win there. Bernie is winning there.

Look. I don't know who is going to win. I don't have a crystal ball. However, I live in Iowa and I have been plugged in and paying attention since this summer, because that's what happens in my state. We are fully engaged, attending political events, and our media is saturated with political stories and television advertisements from the campaign.

I see a complete redux of the 2008 campaign. But Bernie is doing better than Obama was in 2008! And we all know how that primary ended!

The national polls and the polls from states that don't vote for 4+ months are nearly irrelevant. Those numbers are fueled by Clinton's name recognition and the media constantly touting her as "inevitable". Those polls shift significantly once the hoopla of the campaigns kick in to those states--the advertising, mailers, speeches, political rallies, local media covering the campaigns. It's like a re-set button.

I don't know what will happen, my opinion is that Bernie is poised to win Iowa and NH. Obama didn't do that. Any winning the first two states will be like a shot out of a cannon for Bernie, going into North Carolina. This entire race will be turned on its ear and that whole "inevitability" meme will be shot down.

Maybe Clinton will end up winning this time. Maybe Sanders will. Who knows. But if you look at the numbers--and compare them to 2008--it is undeniable that Sanders is doing better than Obama was at this point in the election cycle.

THAT is huge!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Res ipsa loquitur

Look at Iowa, the state that votes first. Hillary was far ahead at this point against Obama. Obama was never neck and neck with Clinton until closer to the Iowa caucuses.

Averaging the five polls from this date in 2007 (two before this date, one on it, and two after it) Hillary Clinton had a four point lead over Barack Obama in Iowa:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

Now she has a twenty four point lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[Nye Bevan]

7. It will be Hillary barring some major catastrophic event,

in which case it will be O'Malley.

[TeddyR]

8. Everything I've seen makes me think Hillary is almost certain to be the nominee

Sanders is a fine candidate but I can't envision any scenario in which he defeats Hillary. If she drops out he will be the nominee, but otherwise he remains a senator from Vermont. The vast majority of people don't even know that O'Malley is running.

As an aside, I find this to be one of the less inspiring group of Democratic candidates in a long time. Really concerned about the ability of any of the current crop to motivate voters -- and not "the base" because "the base" will vote in any event, but those who might vote for the Dem but aren't that tuned in to politics.

[Agnosticsherbet]

9. Hillary Clinton learned from her loss in 2008.

She moved aggressively in Caucasus States and is showing a huge lead in Iowa. (We just passed the anniversary of the date when Obama took the lead there.)

She has an extensive campaign organizations in all fifty states. Her support with POC, women, minorities, and the over 30 Demographic is large enough that it is not going to simple disappear between now and the primaries.

He biggest weakness, Republican investigations into Benghazi and the Email are almost completely behind her.

Sanders has an appeal to a majority of the under 30 vote. In the polls I've seen where they are taken, he doesn't completely own it, but he certainly wins it. His weakness with POC hurts him, and his lack of organization and a ground game are a serious draw back.

O'Malley has failed to get traction in a year where Clinton dominates. I neither expect him to quit not be offered the VP slot. If something should happen to Clinton he will win the lion share of her support.

Barring some huge problem, Clinton will win the nomination.

The media will continue to push the Democratic Horse Race because they thrive on drama.

[whatchamacallit]

10. I must represent the "party improper"

As I won't be lining up behind Lady Rodham.

[cwydro]

15. So you'll stay home on voting day if she is the nominee?

Interesting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Barring a threat to her health she will be the nominee...

I would literally bet my life on it...Yesterday I was given a lecture on the " blatant misuse" of the word "literally". To show my understanding of the word I will use "literally" in a sentence...

Sacramento is "literally" the capital of California.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That's a theory in search of reality

Bernie will energize the left, then Hillary will lose.

That's a theory in search of reality:

New McClatchy/Marist poll on the general election - Clinton vs the republican "frontrunners" :



General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 56, Trump 41 Clinton +15
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Carson 48, Clinton 50 Clinton +2
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 50, Rubio 45 Clinton +5
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 52, Bush 44 Clinton +8
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 53, Cruz 43 Clinton +10
General Election: Fiorina vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 53, Fiorina 43 Clinton +10

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president



http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

[Starry Messenger]

16. Feeling good about it!

I also feel like the transition to the GE is afoot.

Hillary is way on top of her game, and is totally prepared for the anything this run.

[lovemydog]

17. Very similar to your view.

Barring dropout, Hillary Clinton will be the nominee. Sanders will continue to appeal to an enthused segment. He and O'Malley will be credited with injecting a more liberal and populist slant to the discussion.