84 days until Iowa. On this day in 2007 Obama had pulled even in Iowa. Hillary leads today by 24

[stevenleser]

Also, Obama had much more money than Bernie does now comparatively, he had better name recognition and he had the support of a lot of members of the party, the so-called super delegates. Obama had in his campaign a lot of the folks who really understand how the Iowa caucuses work. If you don't have those folks, its very hard to compete in Iowa. Howard Dean found that out. The Iowa caucuses are a science and an art and they take many years to understand and a lot of connections in the state.

2008 Iowa Caucus polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls


2016 Iowa Caucus polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[MineralMan]

1. That's inconvenient, isn't it?

However, I'd lose the fly swatter thing. It seems petty to me.

[stevenleser]

4. Yep, very inconvenient for Bernistas...

As far as petty, I dunno. Did you see the 800+ comment attack OP at me for changing my mind 8 years ago? I'd say as far as my critics here go, petty is what they understand. Anything better than that goes over their heads.

[MineralMan]

7. Yes, I did see that, and defended you.

We needn't follow suit on everything, though.

That's my belief. I'm not a big eye for an eye proponent, really. It's up to you, of course. I just voiced my opinion.

[jfern]

2. The Iowa caucus was almost a month earlier last time

[Skidmore]

3. And 84 days from now, this Iowan

will caucus for her. In 2008, I caucused for the President, and I got mad at Hillary too. I'm very proud to be able to caucus for her this time.

[SCantiGOP]

5. Same here in #3 primary state

My wife and I both voted for Edwards in South Carolina before his candicacy (thank goodness) blew up. I worked for Obama, she for Clinton, but of course we both worked for Obama in the GE.
This year we are both supporting Clinton. Even though Bernie is my favorite Senator, the stakes are too high to risk turning our country over to the GOP.

[azmom]

6. I will be donating and volunteering for

Bernie for ever and ever. I so admire the man.
Give them hell Bernie!

[ram2008]

8. Thread title is misleading or at worse an outright lie

Obama was down an average of 7 points, not even. He ended up winning by close to 10.

[stevenleser]

9. Several polls had him ahead. It depended on which poll you believed. Which to me indicates a tie. nt

[ram2008]

13. Most people go by averages.

Because there will always be outliers. In which case, Obama was still down 7.

[stevenleser]

15. In a contest like the Iowa caucuses the average doesnt mean as much. The ending result tells

the Story. The RCP average had Obama up by one point and he won it by nearly 10 points.

[ram2008]

20. So then what's the purpose of this thread?

If only the end point matters ?

[stevenleser]

27. I didn't say only the end point matters. nt

[HerbChestnut]

10. Operation Discourage Bernie Supporters continues I see.

Still lots of time left.

[stevenleser]

11. And you can continue pushing that line for another 84 days. Time is running out. nt

[HerbChestnut]

12. That's 3 months

3 months is an eternity in politics. And there's 3 more debates before the caucus. And Bernie just launched his first TV ad. Don't count your chickens, Steven.

[stevenleser]

14. Nearly, yes. And the trajectory is also all wrong. Hillary's lead is widening and the other problem

Sanders supporters have is she is over 50% in the polls this close. That means that the undecideds alone aren't going to be able to close the gap.

[Aerows]

21. And would you believe

that even in red states people are working their asses off to get Bernie nominated? I know to many we don't matter, but what we make up in not mattering to many, we make up in sheer determination to matter to the last vote.

[HerbChestnut]

23. I think Hillary's lead is as wide as it's going to get.

She had everything going for her these last few weeks, but it's only a matter of time before the effect wears off. I don't know if that will result in her dropping in the polls, but I certainly think people will be more willing to change their minds. And remember, Bernie has also been creeping up in polls. He's now consistently over 30% nationally so it's possible that his momentum will continue. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernie hit 40% in Iowa by the time of the caucus. The wild card here is O'Malley. If he's able to garner any momentum at all it will be in Iowa, and I don't think anybody knows who his support will come from.

[Aerows]

19. It's relentless

but changes nothing. My support for him continues unabated, as do my efforts to help him secure his place as the nominee.

I'm not discouraged by his progress in becoming our nominee, I'm discouraged by the sheer ugliness that has seized hold of many.

Here, I'll say it again for the millionth time - I am supporting Bernie Sanders in the Primary, and fully believe I will be supporting him in the General election.

I hope that was plainly stated enough. But, hey, they can continue on with the "fly in the ointment" campaigns. It fools no one with any amount of wisdom.

[BlueCaliDem]

28. Or you can see it as "Operation GET OUT THE VOTE *NOW*". Consider it a wake-up

call instead of a campaign to discourage Bernie Sanders *supporters (think glass is half full, not half empty) and start organizing for Senator Sanders and give him the power and support he needs now. Act as if the election will be held in December.

Start that million man/woman march NOW. Knock on doors. Get people registered to vote. Help those who would most certainly vote for Bernie Sanders but who don't have the proper paperwork to be able to.

Don't wait until February 1st, 2016. It'll be too late then.

*Edited to add a word.

[HerbChestnut]

29. You are absolutely correct.

Thank you for that.

[Aerows]

16. It can't come soon enough for me

to all of this disgruntlement amongst otherwise fine DUers to come to an end.

I know who I am voting for, and I firmly believe I will be voting for Bernie in the GE.

Other than that, I really wish the hostility could get dialed down. It's not good for anybody.

[Bonobo]

17. It was always a long shot. That's the case with our best choices usually.

There is a reason that we have the term "establishment candidate".

And yes, money DOES buy votes and influence.

So, no one is really surprised, Steven.

But that doesn't mean you give up trying to get the best candidate.

That is, as I am sure you know, called "selling out".

[Aerows]

24. It's not a long shot

Not from what I can determine on the ground. You mention Hillary among Republicans and of course you get a sour face. You mention Hillary among Democrats, and you get a look of indigestion.

Start talking about Bernie, even to Republicans, and you would be surprised how many actually grin a little bit because he is nothing like the nutjobs they are running.

I have faith that people can actually do what will benefit them the most, and are fed up with corporate candidate A and corporate candidate B. There is a reason for that faith.

It's because I go out of my way to talk to them. I do not give two shits if I am known as that lady that always talks about Bernie Sanders if it secures the nomination. You can't shame me into thinking Hillary is a good candidate, so why would you think I'd give up on Bernie Sanders?

[Fearless]

18. She's isn't leading. Nice try though.

[askew]

22. The Iowa caucus is one month later this time. So, you need to be looking at October polls not

November for comparison.,

[stevenleser]

26. October polls weren't much different. They showed a very small Hillary lead. nt

[Fumesucker]

25. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/110720713#post19

As I predicted as well, my phone is ringing off the hook. I had a TV appearance today, will preview the debate on Cavuto tomorrow, will give a pre debate speech at a large gathering tomorrow and have a number of appearance requests later in the week, all due to my internet buzz meter being raised. So not only did the folks who hoped to hurt me fail, I'm very much helped by their efforts.

[Scuba]

30. You must be devastated, considering what you said about Hillary in 2008.

[840high]

31. Misleading OP.